Yukon Huang: Debunking Myths About China's Economy

and you ?????

these are the words used by many economist, those who are not bullish on China.

why are you parroting the words of the Kardashins of academia ?

 

Yes or no. Will China ever have a major correction? Simple yes or no....

You must have missed that question last time.....

 

"and you ?????"

Me? I'm me. I don't make predictions for a living. If I did, I would probably choose to be a tarot reader.

"these are the words used by many economist, those who are not bullish on China.

why are you parroting the words of the Kardashins of academia ?"

How coincidental. I came up with that myself. I don't "parrot" words. I read widely then form an opinion.

Your comments are not only bizarre, but pretty poorly thought out. Just my opinion.

 

give the guy a little rope , he ends up revealing himself as a mental midget

lol, judging from ur disjointed parroted words, the only thing you know about economics is that

you don't understand it​

 

When have China's gross savings (personal, corp, and Govt) been as high as they've been the last several years?

the more you save, the more you can afford to borrow;
China's gross saving ~ 59%, US ~20%​

why are you back-pedaling from your previous position that

China's economy will collapse, w its high debt delivering the fatal blow ?
​

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-shapes-economic-blueprint-around-xi-jinping-thought-1513786561​

China has unveiled the first economic blueprint of Xi Jinping’s second term--- ‘Xi-conomics’----calling for ‘reasonable’ credit expansion in 2018,
a sign that Beijing will tolerate more debt to maintain growth,

• poking another hole at the false-narrative, spin by Gordon Chang /
  those of his ilk, that the Chinese economy will collapse because of high debt levels

Thanks to pragmatic economic reforms introduced by Deng, China's uninterrupted rise in GDP started ~ 4 decades ago; in the late 1990s,
to discredit / diminish China's economic accomplishments, Gordon Chang proceeded to spin a false narrative surrounding
China's supposed "crippling high debts", Since then, China has doubled its debts and its GDP has grown 8-fold.

Gordon Chang's prediction has been based on the convenient assumption that China's gross savings (personal, private/public sector) rate
is the same as the US. in recent years, China's gross savings has been ~ 59% of GDP, For the US, it's ~ 20%,

 

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/01/08/making-china-great-again

Great read. Most Americans don't even realize how America is falling behind unfortunately. The article maybe has too much blame misdirected at Trump. It should be at the Republican party and its supporters.

 

when has the US's debt level as been as high as it was in 2017, the highest, in modern history (post WW2)

​

China's debt level has been the highest in the past 40+ years


this differentiates the two economic scenarios,

while the US gross saving rate (personal, Govt, Private Sector) continues to decline, to ~ 20%,
China's gross saving % continues to rise, to ~~ 59%​

 

I notice how you never answered my question.... just change the topic. The US has a very high debt level, like China.....

It's good that average Chinese citizens are saving their money since their Authoritative government will have to take that wealth if things get too bad. Just like they prevent private wealth from leaving the country in the form of US housing purchases and the likes.....

But China's debt issue is serious since the line is blurred between private and public.

China's Debt Bomb Just Keeps Getting Bigger

Over in China, a debt boom mapped



And since China uses it's central govt to prop up it's domestic companies.... it seems like all that rapid expansion is hurting them...

A Chinese conglomerate struggling with billions in debt is reportedly hounding its own employees for money

 

yet another cut-n-paste info,

so what is your point ?

​

actually i have, several times, readily acknowledged that China's debt level is problematic,

but not enough to collapse the economy, which has been Gordon Chang's position for the past 18 years.

you merely parroted Gordon Chang's position

 

Can you not read?

Can you not click a link and read it?

Can you not read what I typed?

​

Many people predict a severe correction in China's future, it's inevitable.

 

yet, u can't name / describe some of those people

​

it's certainly

not the IMF, who has granted SDR status to the Chinese Yuan as a global currency,

not GM, MS, VolksWagen, Boeing, AirBus, Yum, Starbucks, Siemen, etc. who have increased their investment in China.

​

btw,

for your education, "correction" is a term used to describe a market dynamic indigenous to the stock market, not the overall economy.​

like the dotard in the WH, ur confusing the stock market w the overall economy​

 

You won't read any my links..... can't make you learn. You keep repeating some guy named Chang as if I actually know or care who he is...

​

And? Does that somehow exclude the Chinese economy from market forces?

Care to actually read what the IMF wrote about Chinese debt and its growth?

IMF Executive Board Concludes Financial Sector Stability Assessment with China

Here is an analysis of the IMF report from the Guardian:

​

It is also used colloquially, like many English words they have multiple meanings within various contexts. In the economic sense it could refer to China's overproduction of steel, solar panels, and washing machines correcting or the entire Chinese economy is overheated with debt and will correct. If the Chinese stock market drops ~20%, I assure you the economy will feel it. All it takes is major state owned Chinese bank to get underwater to start a panic, and China's shadow banking/investing sector is pretty enormous.

 

what part of IMF granting the Chinese currency SDR status you don't understand ?

​

lots of words lumped together that, when taken as a whole, say nothing.

 

What part of slowing growth and mounting debt crisis don't you understand? Did US Dollar's IMF status prevent it from needing to be propped in up in 2007/2008? .... that's what I thought. China ain't that special that it avoids market forces darlin'.

​

I know, your government censures the world from you. I imagine it looks like nothing to a censured person. Fortunately I am free to make all types of sentences.....

 

the dizzying height of half-baked understanding.

for your education,

ever since there was an IMF, the USD has been granted SDR status, reserved for only the economic elites

China currency was not granted such status until late 2016.

why did the IMF grant such as an elite status to China ?

you do understand what SDR does for an uber export-driven economy like China, no ?​

tell-tale sign of one who is waving the white flag of surrender, attacking the opponent's assumed nationality.

fwiw, I am a US citizen, born an bred; been to China/HK ~ 4 times

 

Yea and the US economy has had varying levels of recessions from mild to severe since then.....

If your argument is that the SDR status somehow prevents a serious economic correction then you need to look at 2007/2008 to what happens when an economy overheats and becomes over leveraged.

Isn't China trying to switch to a more domestic consumer driven economy? Racked up a lot of debt creating an "elite, uber" export driven economy...​

Oh.... did you actually address anything I wrote or did you deflect and say what I wrote says "nothing". That was you right, deflecting in post 95.

 

Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, arguably the world's best investor over the past ~ 50 years;
a $10,000 investment in his company's stock, Berkshire Hathaway, in 1965 would be worth $88 million today.

He had this to say about the Chinese economy

“What they’ve done in the last 50 or 60 years is a total economic miracle. I never would’ve thought it could’ve happened,” “What I do know is they have found a secret sauce for themselves, just like we found the secret sauce a couple centuries ago.”

Buffett says “countries will do it differently,” referring to the fundamental differences between China and the U.S. politically and economically. China’s state capitalism emphasizes economic growth and social stability, with tight control over domestic politics and information.

Since the economic reform in 1978, China has grown at a staggering pace of 9.5% per year and has become the world’s second largest economy. In the past five years, China’s GDP growth has slowed down but still achieved an increase of 6.9% last year, dwarfing America’s 2.3% increase.

Buffett believes that China’s economy has found a special sauce, and its growth story is far from over.

“They can have growth in the economy from a lower base that will exceed ours percentage wise for a long time,” he said. “They’re destined for a fine economic future, just like we are.”

China will likely overtake the U.S. as the world’s No. 1 economy by 2032, according to the London-based Center for Economics and Business Research. Though, Buffett thinks it will take much longer for China to catch up.

“It’s a long way off.” said Buffett. But he acknowledges the potential since China’s population is almost four times greater than the U.S. “The main thing you have to do is unleash the potential of your people”.

While trade tensions running high between Beijing and Washington, China’s rise as a superpower is not necessarily a bad thing for the U.S., according to Buffett. “If you postulate two kinds of world’s 50 years from now, and one is where the United States is still doing far better than a good many of the world’s people, or you postulate something where everybody is making a lot of progress, I think you’ve gotta choose the second world,” said Buffett. “We should welcome a more prosperous world, including China.”







https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-china-found-secret-sauce-183809314.html

 

Sixty Minutes did a story on those ghost cities.

Tripped me out