Yukon Huang: Debunking Myths About China's Economy

Go to the YouTube video page and read the description. This is not directed at the OP, but rather a public service message for those who have said the video is too long and wanted a synopsis. On second thought, don’t even bother with reading the video description, but read People’s Daily, Global Times or South China Morning Post instead. The source material is all the same anyway.

But for the masochists, here’s another link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...of-china-s-problems-is-wrong-economist-argues

(Also, recent events in China is counter to everything he’s arguing for, so I can’t tell if he’s simply mandated to patch up a cracking facade or just plain ignorant.)

I’d also suggest that if you (OP) genuinely wish to engage in D&D, YOU should list out what you want to D&D instead of playing coy like Yukon Huang. If you want to argue that the world should invest MOAR in China and deficits (not just ours) are not China’s doing, eh...I don’t know what to tell you.

And once again, sending out these schills is too little, too late. People are finally onto China’s games. https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/th...ssion=true&from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0

What happened at the WTO meeting this week is a good start.

Finally, for some reason, people who praise the “success” of the nineteenth congress of charades, be it this broseph or Drumpf, just make me want to barf. I think I’m allergic to dictators, wannabes and their sycophants/shills.

 

Did you not notice how he glossed over the real-estate sector?

 

Are these ghost cities real or just anti-Chinese propaganda?

 

And what do ghost cities have to do with real estate prices in the major cities like Beijing/Shanghai? The OP video talks about the government trying to spread out the population away from the major city centers and one of his points is that they should be concentrating more, not less as a mistake of the Chinese government.

He didn't gloss over the real estate bubble, as his claim is that values are now aligned with similar large cities (NY/London)

 

China's economic growth model is not unique (or as unique as this guy wants you to think). It is very similar to post-WWII Japan. It is susceptible to the same hurdles as other economies - including real-estate bubbles.

 

name one other state-controlled economy that has been able to

• generate sustained GDP growth, nearing double digit per annum, for the past 4 decades
• morph its historically agricultural orientation towards becoming a global mfg power house

you can't

.

what part of this you don't understand ?

China is state-controlled, Japan is not
Japan was an industrial power house before WW2; after which, it then became a war-torn / shrinking economy
picking up the pieces towards recovery
China, historically, had been a predominately agricultural economy; then

Deng's economic reforms had been morphing it towards becoming a global mfg power house, and
Xi's policies have been transitioning it to be more service/consumer-driven​

what earth-shattering news ?

 

Hello, the ‘90s called, and they want their China narrative back.

Here’s a little secret: people who make a living off of China (or anything else, for that matter) won’t tell you that it’s heading straight for the side of the mountain.

Enough about the shill. Back to China. Watch what they DO, not what they SAY (and holding my nose to post SCMP (owned by Jack Ma, for those who don’t know) dung lest anything else gets dismissed as “fake news” or “imperialist propaganda”):

http://m.scmp.com/news/china/polici...tate-owned-firms-must-take-leading-role-world

http://m.scmp.com/news/china/econom...warns-firms-may-pull-out-china-over-communist

http://m.scmp.com/property/article/...ree-years-under-new-rules-five-chinese-cities

http://m.scmp.com/week-asia/society...er-evictions-four-character-word-you-cant-say

Every one of these is a slap in the face to the foundation of Huang’s thesis, which simply parrots Chinese government propaganda directed at the West.

But be my guest if you want to keep believing the ‘90s fairytale/self-delusion that China welcomes capitalism and that migrant workers will make the leap to middle class in large cities with boundless opportunities and eventually bring about political change and that the world will be a better place for it.

Time for realpolitik: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-west-gets-real-about-china-1513074600

 

and you know this because of .....what ? a convenient claim, nary any rationale, only underscores it's lack of credibility.

btw, i can name one entity who makes a living off China, and has been steadfastly bullish on China, Morgan Stanley, a Forturn-100 Global Financial Conglomerate, as documented by its 61-page report on the Chinese economy, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...y-drive-gives-bulls-hope-morgan-stanley-saysm

"Our view remains that China will be able to navigate economic / political / cultural challenges and
continue to move toward becoming a high-income economy,"​

dispense w the rhetoric; it's more important to cull thru the economic data / results

i wish that you dispense w merely parroting the WSJ.

Deng's economic reforms, started in the late 1970s, have transformed China's economic landscape, as evidenced by
its 4+decades of sustained GDP growth.

you must be living in a cave, oblivious to the fact that China's GDP has grown, nearing 10 % annually, for the past 4 decades​

 

Usually the truth is somewhere between rosy "propaganda" and heading straight to the side of a mountain.

I do think China has mostly been used as a boogeyman recently, although I find their theft of intellectual property disturbing. I would say China is undergoing many challenges, some of which can cause great social unrest and government legitimacy issues, but time will tell.

I think some of those issues you mention have easy fixes, it seems China is just trying to strengthen its power and may soon find out it's not as powerful as it thinks.

 

That’s cool. Go long on China. Got a bunch of new issues (as in, IPOs) coming up. Good luck!​

 

Mark this thread and come back in 12-18 months.

All the “easy fixes” are all incompatible with one thing, but that one thing is the only thing the government cares about.

 

Yukon Huang sounds like one of those made-up internet names.

 

why so afraid to be specific ?

 

Darn. Got me.

 

"Afraid"? Heh. I just didn't want to insult people's intelligence. Everyone knows what the CCP is after, and that is staying in power. They don't call them the princelings for no reason.

I also noticed that you have nothing to say about the SCMP articles. But it's OK. They're merely "rhetoric" (put out by Chinese-controlled media, no less). At least you didn't call them "fake news". LOL.

And why are you still here replying to me when you should be talking to your stock broker? SS and SZ are both down half percent right now. TIME TO BUY!!!!!@##!@!!!!111

Better yet, sell your assets, exchange USD to RMB, move to China (assuming you're not there already), buy a house (or two or twenty), ???, and PROFIT!!!

 

is that any different than other Gov in the world ?

ur not qualified to give financial advise. so stop pretending






btw, i've noticed that u've been afraid of answering this question

and you know this because of .....what ?​

 

Still not addressing the SCMP articles.

Still resorting to ad hominem.

I’m done with you, you shill. Go claim your fifty cents from CCP.

 

just because i had poke holes in ur blanket / convenient claim that China is heading straight for the side of the mountain.

i've noticed that u've been avoidng this question

and you know this ...... because of what ?
​

i was able to name Morgan Stanley Corp as one who makes $ off China and recently published a 61-page report that is bullish on China, in terms of being a high-income economy. others on the same bullish train include GM. TESLA, FORD, VW. YUM / KFC, McDonalds, STARBUCKS, APPLE, BOEING, AirBus, CocaCola, etc.

also, the Trump cos, who has applied for licensing/copy rights/patent
protection in China for such business ventures as Hotel Development,
Golf course development, escort services, etc.
​

why can't you even name one on your wishful bearish train ?​