They do. His name is Alex Bregman. You not wanting him removed from the cleanup spot is another thing entirely. And I get it. I think we can all agree this version of Gurriel just doesn't equate to batting second in the lineup.
Altuve, Alvarez, Bregman, and Tucker are all great options for the 2-hole. That's the top of the order I'd use without Brantley. Mix 'em up however you want though, and it is still a better lineup than any lineup without one of those 4 batting 2nd.
This team doesn't have a leadoff hitter. Altuve is really the only option, and he is good there, just would be better 2nd. I think Bregman is an ideal #2 hitter which takes the sting out of Altuve having to lead off. The issue is that he is also the best option to give Yordan protection by hitting cleanup. Mancini can be that player if Dusty would play him, but otherwise it would have to be Tucker. In the grand scheme of things, what's the difference between 7 consecutive RH hitters and 6? Also, since it's always good to get your best players the most PAs, moving Kyle up to 4th makes sense. Altuve, Bregman, Yordan, and Tucker are the clear 4 best hitters on the team. I would play Mancini every day and hit him 5th. He splits 1B and DH with an occassional start in LF. McCormick hits 6th playing mostly CF but also Kyle's backup in RF and LF when Meyers starts. Chas is a perfect 4th OF and has become a very good, not great or every day player. But he is, by far, the best CF option this team has. 7th spot goes to Yuli, Diaz, or Meyers: whoever happens to be the final starter in the lineup that day. Pena always hits 8th. He was never a highly regarded hitting prospect but he has some skill there. His start kind of blinded us fans to that. MLB pitchers have adjusted to him and he may be hitting the dreaded "rookie wall". He needs low pressure and stability ( and to lay off outside breaking balls). His speed plays here if he can get on base reasonably often but less likely to be a rally killer here. Vazquez/Maldy hit 9th. I honestly don't mind a 50/50 split or close. Vazquez has opened up and looks to have turned the corner on wanting to be here. His bat to ball skills and Maldy's ability to bunt could be the key to a rally in front of the big 4 if Pena can get on base with no outs.
I don’t understand why Pena shouldn’t be tried again there. For the 30 games he hit there he wasn’t just good he was elite. Why not see if he can repeat that production?
Hitters for the most part don't improve too much bouncing around the lineup. Lineup construction is more about ordering hitters in a way to get more runs and RBIs. Sure, good hitters may get walked more without protection, but that isn't changing how good the hitter is. Pena was elite hitting second because he was hitting the ball well while hitting second, not because he was hitting second. Putting the best hitters together has a synergistic effect. Putting a weaker hitter second will usually get more runs and RBIs out of that hitter, but the leadoff hitter has no protection before or after him, and the following hitters will get less ABs (i.e., produce fewer RBIs).
I would really like to see more consistency, especially in the bottom half. It feels like any given day 6-9 could be Pena, McCormick, Mancini, Meyers, Dubon, Vazquez and/or Maldy in any combination and any order. I would like to see Pena dropped to 8th and kept there the rest of the season.
Line-up Construction vs Right Handed Starter. First, you want your best hitters batting 3 and 4. They need a combination of OBP ans SLG skills. Currently, YTD indicates those players are Alvarez 1074 and Bregman 915. 3. Alvarez 1074 OPS 4. Bregman 915 OPS Next you want the next two best OBP hitters to get on base. Currently, YTD indicates those players are Tucker 374 OBP and Altuve 361 OBP. 1. Tucker 374 OBP 2. Altuve 361 OBP 3. Alvarez 1074 OPS 4. Bregman 915 OPS Next you want the best 2 Sluggers to drive in runs. Currently, YTD indicates those players are Pena 408 SLG and Mancini 481 SLG. 1. Tucker 374 OBP 2. Altuve 361 OBP 3. Alvarez 1074 OPS 4. Bregman 915 OPS 5. Mancini 481 SLG 6. Pena 408 SLG Then the next best OBP players which are Gurriel 293 OBP and McCormick 292 OBP. 1. Tucker 374 OBP 2. Altuve 361 OBP 3. Alvarez 1074 OPS 4. Bregman 915 OPS 5. Mancini 481 SLG 6. Pena 408 SLG 7. Gurriel 293 OBP 8. McCormick 292 OBP Then the best catcher which is Vasquez with a slash line of 273/273/546. 1. L RF Tucker 374 OBP 2. R 2B Altuve 361 OBP 3. L LF/DH Alvarez 1074 OPS 4. R 3B Bregman 915 OPS 5. R DH/LF Mancini 481 SLG 6. R SS Pena 408 SLG 7. R 1B Gurriel 293 OBP 8. R CF McCormick 292 OBP 9. R C Vasquez 273 OBP/273 SLG/546 OPS. Then adjust for hot and cold play, injuries and rest. I'd like to see split time for the catchers. Maldy is hot at the moment, but so is Vasquez and he's had a good year except for his first 5 or 6 games here. Yordan is struggling so you might want to move him down the order. Gurriel and McCormick are interchangeable at 7 and 8.
Dusty specifically moved Gurriel to batting second for protection purposes. Pena was probably hitting better because he was seeing more fb’s. It’s August so why not see if there was a correlation between batting second and having an ops greater than 860 in 30 games? I fail to see the downside. Where you hit in the lineup can absolutely make a difference in production. If it doesn’t make a difference than fine. Move him back down in the lineup. Is Altuve getting protected by Gurriel?
I think Yuli is a platoon player ( at best) on this team but if he is in the lineup he NEEDS the protection Yordan provides. Altuve does not need protection. He does damage on all types of pitches in all kinds of locations. This was prior to yesterday ( Trey's stats are YTD, not just Astros) R/L pitching: Mancini .766 / .717 Gurriel .648 / .744 Vs power / finess pitchers Mancini .554 / .684 Gurriel .717 / .622 Vs flyball / groundball pitchers Mancini .866 / .541 Gurriel .729 / .770 As you can see there are clear platoon split advantages and disadvantages. Yuli should play 1B vs some combination of lefties that throw hard and generate ground balls. Trey plays 1B in other situations (but should not start against ground ball pitchers unless Meyers, Dubon, etc are worse) and may DH when Yordan plays LF in the others.
If the goal of protection is getting a great fastball hitter like Altuve fastballs in the zone, Gurriel is failing miserably. Altuve's overall hitting numbers are great, but teams are choosing to pitch to Gurriel and not to Altuve.
I don’t think Altuve needs protection. I was just making a point that Gurriel provides nothing in the 2 hole more than Pena. Pena had an ops of 860 over the course of 30 games, that is not insignificant. He is also faster and hits for more power than Gurriel. There is no reason for Dusty not to experiment over the course of the next 15-20 games to see if you can get Pena going. If it doesn’t work flip it back. It’s my opinion that Gurriel should be on the bench no matter who bats second.
Mancini has proven himself able to hit for power and protect Yordan. Bregman is, by far, the best choice to hit #2. Lineup: Altuve Bregman Alvarez Mancini Tucker Pena Then let Dusty throw whoever he wants wherever he wants 7-9
I don't know how long the players could sustain this, but at the moment this looks like the best line-up: R LF HENSLEY, David 455 500 175 0.0 (0.1) R C VASQUEZ, Christian 380 340 110 2.2 1.2 L DH ALVAREZ, Yordan 398 597 182 5.0 (0.5) R 2B ALTUVE, Jose 374 514 153 3.6 (0.8) R 3B BREGMAN, Alex 372 477 142 3.8 (0.5) L RF TUCKER, Kyle 337 472 130 4.6 0.9 R 1B MANCINI, Trey 253 468 102 2.0 (0.6) R CF McCORMICK, Chas 326 416 112 1.4 0.0 R SS PEÑA, Jeremy 285 409 97 3.8 2.1
So you are fine when teams walk him or don't give him a pitch to drive with 2 outs and runners in scoring position to get to a bad hitter? Altuve walks 21.6% of the time with 2 outs and RISP and it isn't because he's Bregman up there forcing them to throw strikes. Sure Altuve has a great OPS/wRC+ in these situations due to the walks, but his slugging is 100 points lower than his normal and he isn't driving in runs. No. 2 spot since Brantley's injury has 3 RBIs in this situation with an wRC+ of 23 (OPS of 0.422) with an OBP barely over the Mendoza line. I don't think Altuve needs protection to have a great wRC+. I think Altuve needs protection if you want him to drive in runs with 2 outs.
I didn't want Yordan hitting 2nd because I'm still kind of old school in the belief you want some traffic in front of your best hitters, not them hitting behind the worst hitters on the team to fully maximize potential PA. However with him having his issues, I think he should be hitting 2nd. He's still getting on base at a decent clip, and even slumping I doubt teams are gonna go out of their way to pitch to Yordan. Bump everybody else up a spot. Altuve Yordan Bregman Tucker Mancini Vasquez (wishful thinking) Chaz Yuli (I really hope they are serious about giving Diaz a chance to earn postseason AB's) Pena (even with his offensive issues, I think he's pretty clearly the best overall SS we have, hopefully he has a breakthrough left in him this season)
Fantastic job here.. I didn't think of Tucker lead off, but besides a really good OBP, he's our best base stealer. So he can put some pressure on the pitcher. You have Vazquez with a .273 OBP, but he's batting near .290, so obviously a mistake there. And his SLG is over 400. Not sure where you got .273 from. Which probably means you place him 7th in the lineup.
I see the thought behind not wanting Alvarez (or Bregman or Tucker) to hit behind the worst hitters, but as long as one of Alvarez, Bregman, or Tucker aren't batting 2nd, odds are he's batting behind one of the worst hitters. Keeping the best hitters clomped together is the best way to maximize having traffic in front of the best hitters even if the 1st 2 of the best hitters don't get the benefit. Bregman and Tucker are feasting behind Alvarez. I'd much rather bat Mancini, Chas, or Vasquez last to have a decent OBP guy in front of top of the order, than follow Dusty's philosophy of trying to put someone at the No. 2 spot without power (except when it was Brantley).
