The Twins are pretty good team. Their Pythagorean win total is 93. For comparison, the Astros have a Pythagorean win total of 93. So, these two teams are fairly well matched and either team is capable of winning the series. Starting pitching The Twins have been marginally better than the Astros overall at team ERA. The Astros have more upside in their rotation, as Verlander/Valdez/Javier all have elite stuff and have in the past dominated at times against elite competition. The Twins have Pablo Lopez who at times has shown that he can have success against elite hitters. Sonny Gray is coming off his best season and doesn't beat himself, to beat him the Astros have to really limit their mistakes. Joe Ryan has good stuff, but is homer prone. Overall, the Astros have the edge in starting pitching with all three of the Astros top starters pitching well of late. Bullpen The Twins have the best closer in this series. Jhoan Duran is capable of getting tough outs and likely will pitch 3-4 times in the series at least. Brock Stewart isn't a well-known player, but he has been nothing short of dominant in his one inning outings. Those two relievers can quickly turn a 9 run game into 7 innings. The Twins have a number of competent options to pitch the 5th and 6th if needed. The Astros cannot count on scoring runs late against the Twins. The Astros pen isn't what it once was, but they still have Abreu, Neris and Pressly that usually will shut down the other team. Pressly has a higher era than usual, and has had some poor games but for the most part still gets the job done. If the Astros need to - they have Kendall Graveman available, who in the past has gotten elite hitters out. Line-up The Astros, when they are inclined, can put out -at worst - the second best line up in baseball with a strong bench as well. The Astros line up also has a strong history of hitting elite pitching when needed. The only real concerns are the inconsistency of the line up - and Maldonado will likely start over Diaz. The Twins have a lot of solid hitters - but outside of Buxton and Lewis, not a lot of elite hitters. Not sure Buxton will be available to play. Carlos Correa is a major talent but is playing injured. Royce Lewis cannot be overlooked. Defense It may not be a popular take - but I will take the Twins solid defense, making the plays they should - over the Astros up and down defense. Overall When you have two teams that are as close as the these two, it is a crap-shoot to an extent. The Astros have the higher upside and experience so they should win the series. However, anything can happen in a small sample size and the Twins have a real chance to win the series.
Ober has a good 4S and a good changeup to go along with so so breaking pitches. Houston hitters were 4th in xwOBA against 4S and 2nd in xwOBA against changeups this season.
I agree with most of this. I don't think Byron Buxton is going to play as he wasn't on the Wild Card roster and I don't think he's at full health. If he is on the roster he might not be used every game. Royce Lewis is hot but is also injured. He's going to DH which means that Byron Buxton can't unless something worse happens to Lewis. The Twins hitters can be very streaky and players like Polanco and Kepler can get hot. Willy Castro has been playing well lately for the Twins too. Correa has been having a down year historically and his health is an issue but he loves the post season and he's showing that swagger that made so good for the Stros. I think he is an X factor for this series. This Twins team has very little post season experience they will look to Correa for leadership and he could inspire this team. I'm also sure he is very fired up to return to MMP and play the Stros.
Ober pitched against us in 2021 At home 5 innings 7 hits 2 runs 1 hr At Houston 5 innings 7 hits 3 runs 2 hr
Glass half empty- living on borrowed time and due to lose. Somewhere between 55/45 and 60/40 I think is right.
Undefeated at home 2023 at MMP has been a nightmare during the regular season. I can't remember the last home game the Astros won and 39-42 at home is risky in this series.
We have 2 of the best 4 seam hitters in the league in Altuve and Chas. We still have Tucker and Alvarez. I feel good against guys that throw heat. It's the guys that throw sliders and curve balls that give us issues.
Ober went 8-6 with a 3.43 ERA in 26 starts this season. He was sent to Triple-A for about a month before returning to the Twins on Sept. 15. He was strong after his return and went 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in four starts.
These are the things that scare me. Like when we played a KC pitcher was like 4-17 and 6 ERA and we got one hit on him, then the reliever came in and was 1-10 with a 5 ERA and we only got 1 hit on him as well. The makings of a great pitching out when we expect us to get off to a hot start. I hope I am beyond wrong and enjoy us just destroying him.
I'm concerned about their pitching as well. For game 1 I think the pitching could be evenly matched, but our offense gives us the advantage. However, in some other games they will have the pitching edge. We will see.. I think if we win game 1, we will win the series.
Twins pitching and Correa getting hot really concern me. Most important we can’t lay a dud at home like with KC and Oakland. Have to establish the tone early and not let the Twins get any confidence.
