He was worse in 2023 than 2022. Not bad, just worse. Mostly in the field where he went from plus plus to eh?
True, but if he can scout like he did with the Braves the window will be open for at least another 5-7 years. He has to be Luhnow good though. I wonder how Crane looks at things, I could see him saying lets stay within the cap and make our major moves at the deadline for the next couple of years, then sell the team.
Agreed, but I think it's more likely that they trade for pitching if they need it and try to develop guys like Decenzo, Loperfido, Baez, Gomez etc... do they have any great young pitching prospects in the low minors? If not this is where Brown needs to focus his draft, international signings. International pitching is a big reason why the Stros are where they're at today. Does the Stros system have depth? Nope, but they do have 4-5 quality guys like Baez where if things workout the team should be top tier for a while. This is how good of a job Luhnow did and the kind of job Brown needs to do for this run to continue.
How the Astros keep the window open by resigning Altuve, Bregman, Valdez, AND Tucker. This exercise is to determine a way the 2026 Astros has all 4 of those players and keep the CBT payroll below the 1st tier. 2026 CBT tiers are: $244M/$264M/$284M. GOAL= STAY UNDER $244M Let's give the following contracts to our 4 stars: Altuve: 6ys/$120M ($20M AAV) Bregman: 8yrs/$240M ($30M AAV) Tucker: 10yrs/$300M ($30M AAV) Valdez: 6yrs/$150M ($25M AAV) =$105M * we can get into whether these are good or realistic and how I determined them later. Player benefits, 40 man roster- minor leaguers, and the pre-arb bonus pool = $21.917M. Current guaranteed contracts= $49.967M for McCullers, Yordan, and Javier. We are at $176.884M = $67.116 remaining and we need 19 players. The current roster has 14 players who will be arbitration eligible: Dubon, Chas, L.Garcia, B.Abreu, Bielak, Meyers, Pena, S.Martinez, Coleman, Singleton, Brown, Y.Diaz, Ortega, and Musinski. Let's just say Bielak, Martinez, Coleman, Singleton, Ortega, and Musinski have been cut loose because they can be replaced by better and/or cheaper players. Furthermore, Dubon, and Meyers will be traded for salary relief. Remaining players and estimated arb salary: Chas: $14M (Anthony Santander's deal +20%) Garcia: $6M (Ranger Suarez's deal +20%) B.Abreu: $8.8M ( Paul Sewalt's deal + 20%) Pena: $10.4M ( Willie Adame's 2nd arb yr +20%) Brown: $2M (Tristom McKenzie deal +20%) Y.Diaz: $6.3M (Will Smith's 1st arb deal +20%) = $47.5M $19.616M remains for 13 players and min salary is $780K = $10.14M. $9.476M under budget to sign a FA or extend a young player. Roster: C: Y.Diaz 1B: (Dezenzo) 2B: Altuve 3B: Bregman SS: Pena LF: Chas CF: (Melton) RF: Tucker DH: Yordan B/U C (Palma) bench (3 of Corona, Wagner, Kessinger, Loperfido, Barber, Cole, Leon, etc) SP:Framber, Javier, Brown, McCullers, Garcia, (Arrighetti or France) Bullpen: Abreu (6 of: Sousa, Blanco, Dubin, Whitley, Tamaraz, Gordon, Kouba, Knorr, Dombroski, A.Taylor, Bross, Ullola and many more) Dana Brown needs to give me a call, lol.
You very well might be right BUT If we are going to put a lesser talented than possible team on the field in 2024, when we are one of the absolute favorites to win the whole thing, in order to get better comp picks that could potentially help us in 2028 or so, that is absolutely insane. The success rate of the players taken in the top comp pick level isn't very good as it is. Again, i'm not saying you are wrong, but if Crane's whole reason for refusing to get into the tax is to get a higher comp pick, he isn't nearly as smart as I thought. We as Astros fans are spoiled into thinking we will always be a favorite or something. These chances like we have this year don't come around for most teams very often. I think it's more likely that Crane doesn't want to pay the tax, since he never has paid it
I think if he scouts like he did with the Braves it would help open up another window soon, but it isn't likely that we will have anyone he drafts be ready to step in for Bregman/Tucker/Altuve/Framber if none of them are extended. Also, we have to be getting close to not being able to make major moves at the deadline. I think it helped us alot that JV wanted to come back here, so it wasn't truly a trade him for the best package deal. And in that deal we gave up our 1 truly top ranked prospect we had left. Without a doubt we have guys that can bring back a pen piece and things like that, but we aren't going to be able to outbid many, if any, other contenders when it comes to deadline deals. As much as we still get excited by some of the guys in our system, truth is overall we are pretty weak when it comes to prospects.
That is a great point. But looking at this team, and the available players, what makes sense? Because of the trade deadline and ability to add players for specific needs after those have been determined, I look at 2 completely different situations. Off season: build a team with the best possible chance to make the playoffs/win a division/get a bye. In season: upgrade a team to have the best chance to win a World Series. So considering the current playoff chances, the available players, and the budget/ability to potentially add in-season what good options are there that are worth losing that comp pick? There are a few I'm sure but not many.
I think Baez has the opportunity to become a great player. I'm hoping Brown can bring back Bregs and Altuve. If not Decenzo or Wagner will have to come through. Main thing is they've got to add pitching throughout all avenues.
I agree that Baez has a chance to be special but still has work to do before we know for sure - is he Richard Hidalgo or is he Eric Anthony? I think the system has several position players who are very likely to be solid 5th to 13th best position players on a team, but precious few with star type ceiling. There are several young guys in rookie ball who impressed in 2023, hopefully a couple of them continue to progress stateside. If so, this system could catapult up the rankings quick. But it's a big IF. As for pitching, there are several 2022 and 2023 draftees that have a chance to take the next step. 2023 will be a huge year for these former college pitchers, and rookie ball hitters to see how much they can improve their stock.
Quick view of several MLB drafts If we aren't in the tax we would pick after Competitive Balance Round B Didn't do the last few drafts cause many of those guys can still make it, started with 2020 2020 Comp Picks: A Burleson is the only one of six that has made it. Early still for the others, but none of them are top prospects 2019 Comp Picks: jimmy Lewis was the only one, hasn't done anything 2018 Comp Picks: 4 of them, none have made the big leagues 2017 Comp Picks: D Varsho 2016 Comp Picks: J Miranda, A Badoo, J Fraley On 2017 and 2016 there was no Competitive Balance round so those picks were a little higher than what they would be now, but even counting those that is 5 big league players/top prospects out of 5 years worth, none of which have been difference makers Now just looking at Comp Picks is a tiny sample size, and at that point of the draft it's likely that a different team picking there takes a different player, so let's look at round 3 (players who would have been available) and round 5 (players available where the pick would come if we went into the tax) 2020 Round 3: K Harrison is the only one who is a top prospect 2020 Round 5: B Pfaadt is the only one who has made it or is a top prospect Harrison has the higher ceiling, but all things considered not much difference, and the bigger thing is that is 2 of 60 players that have done anything 2019 Round 3: S Steer, M Harris 2019 Round 5: Hunter Brown Two good players in round 3 out of 30, 1 in round 5. Harris and Brown both have huge ceilings, Steer is likely to be a solid pro for a long time 2018 Round 3: K Clemens, C Raleigh, J Pena 2018 Round 5: Taj Bradley, S Kwan, M Vierling 6 out of 60 players have made it, honestly not sure which group i'd rather have but probably the round 5 group with the potential upside of Bradley. Both have two very valuable players in it though 2017 Round 3: No one has made it 2017 Round 5: No one has made it So looking at all of that, I find it hard to believe that the reason Crane refuses to go into the tax is because it would back up a potential comp pick for losing guys. The odds of it making a difference are just so small
That’s an awful lot of words to say “if Houston can develop an entirely homegrown elite bullpen and 2 above average everyday position players in the next 3 years, the window can stay open.”
Correct. The pick(s) woukd he about 100ish further down in the draft. It would be the difference between a pick at the end of the 1st rd vs a pick at the end of the 4th rd.
Actually it's later than that now If you are a non tax payer and not a revenue sharing recipient, your pick comes after competitive balance round B Round 1 Comp pick 1 (only for revenue sharing recipients) Competitive Balance Round A Round 2 Competitive Balance Round B Comp Pick 2 (where we would pick if we don't go into the tax)
The thing about the MLB amateur draft is that there are always high instances of players who never make it. There is still a long way to go and several difficult hurdles between high school/college and MLB. All an organization can do is draft the players higher on their list, trust, and hope. Of course that 100 pick difference is likely to drop that pick dozens further down that list. Fangraphs (or ANY rating/ranking organization) is not the end all be all, but I use it because the information is easy to find and filter. In 2023, Fangraphs had 60 grade: 1 55 grade: 2 50 grade: 4 45+ grade: 6 45 grade: 27 (14-40) 40+ grade: 29 (41-69) 40 grade: 51 35+ grade: 32 60 = borderline all star / #3 SP / elite closer 55= above average / #3-4 SP / Average closer 50= average regular / #4 SP / Good S-U RP 45= platoon- utility /#5 SP / lesser S-U RP 40= bench / swing / middle RP 35= AAAA 30= No MLB Value. So Fangraphs projects 152 players drafted last year to be MLB caliber with 69 of them to be likely to stick on a roster as at least a bench/ bullpen role. Only 40 project to be regular or platoon starters. What kind of value is it to have a pick between 31-40 instead of 131-140? The difference between a 45 or 35+ graded prospect is pretty huge.
Cool But in reality that isn’t how it has turned out And again, the pick wouldn’t be between 31-40 anymore, the first comp pick round is after Competitive Balance round A which follows round 2
