What should be the goal of the draft? A sure thing or higher risk/reward?

What should be the goal of the draft? A sure thing or higher risk/reward?



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Highest ceiling. We’re looking for Diamonds, not sapphires

 

I have no favorite in this draft but why are you comparing the probability of Green being a superstar with the probability that Cade, Mobley or Suggs become "very good players"? Something about that seems off.

 

Sry. Hit send too fast…

You have to go for higher upside when you have a chance. Much more rare to be in a position to acquire a great player than a very good one. Teams need GREAT to win it all.
If you feel Green has the highest upside you take the chance now. You never know when that opportunity returns.

 

I've been critical of Green, but I don't see how he has a low floor. Lower than Suggs? Absolutely. But the ability to score tends to translate. Guys like Kuminga and Barnes are better examples of low ceiling/high floor prospects.

 

Not effing up.

That is the goal of this draft.

"And I hate losing. I hate losing more than I love winning." - Brad Pitt as Billy Bean

 

Guards drafted in the top 5 over the past 10 years:

2011: Kyrie Irving ***
2012: Bradley Beal ***
2012: Dion Waiters
2013: Victor Oladipo ***
2014: Dante Exum
2015: D'Angelo Russell ***
2016: Jaylen Brown ***
2016: Kris Dunn
2017: Markell Fultz
2017: Lonzo Ball
2017: Jayson Tatum ***
2017: De'Aaron Fox
2018: Trae Young ***
2019: Ja Morant
2019: Darius Garland

15 players with 7 of those making at least 1 all-star team (***). Of the remaining 8, you can probably pencil in Ja being a future All-Star. In terms of bust, you can probably say Exum and Dunn are lost causes with Fultz, Ball, and Garland being at least good role players.

Of the 15 players five (bolded) were drafted as primarily as a shooting guard. Out of those five players only one (Waiters) did not turn into an All-Star player.

Given the scouted/perceived talent/strength of the prospects at the top of the list I'd say the odds of Green being a bust is not as high as you would think.

 

Another thinly veiled jab at Jalen?

 

Tons of room inbetween.

2 extremes on the spectrum.

 

And Dion Waiters has a ring… technically lol

 

Conversely, bigs that have been drafted in the top 5 over the past 10 years:

2011: Derrick Williams
2011: Enes Kanter
2011: Tristan Thompson
2011: Jonas Valanciunas
2012: Anthony Davis ***
2012: Thomas Robinson
2013: Anthony Bennett
2013: Cody Zeller
2013: Alex Len
2014: Joel Embiid ***
2014: Aaron Gordon
2015: Karl Anthony Towns ***
2015: Jahlil Okafor
2015: Kristaps Porzingis ***
2016: Dragan Bender
2018: Deandre Ayton
2018: Marvin Bagley Jr
2018: Jaren Jackson Jr
2019: Zion Williamson ***

19 players with only 5 All-Stars (***). I think Ayton will be due for a berth and maybe JJJ but that still gives you 7 out of 19 players. Of the remaining 12, you gotta think 8 make a strong case for bust (bolded) status.

 

Just weird that it has to be boom or bust with Jalen, but with the other guys fans are ok with being patient and giving them YEARS to develop. Why shouldnt the other guys have the same expectations? If they become "OK" players and are taken in the top 5 of the draft I'd be a disappointed fan. Yet with Jalen he will have to be All NBA it seems and there wont be any middle ground allowed. Doesnt seem to be a fair EVAL, and its been spun around here in multiple ways to diminish what he CAN do, while the other guys get passes for what they CANT do currently. It is what it is. I think Jalen will take the league by storm so Im not worried, but it feels like he will never live up to the expectations of his detractors. If he does become All star, All NBA, then they will shift to him "saying he was Kobe" and talks of championships he hasnt won yet! Lose/Lose.

 

I mean if he was a noted as a really good defender or really good facilitator then he'd probably be picked at #1 over Cade right? These kids are coming in with unpolished games to their names, even Cade and even Mobley. There's no top 5 prospect this year that screams "He's the total complete package" or, what you're alluding to, a "sure thing".

There were some scouts/writers that questioned whether or not Harden was going to have a reliable 3 point shot when he was a prospect.

 

I think those people who have pushed a "bad defender and bad passer" narrative have had ulterior motives. If you dive into the film you can see a willing defender. An above average rebounder and a guy who see's the court well for a "scorer". His handle is not as loose as they will try to tell you.

To say that every other top pick other than Jalen Green does "more than one thing well" is not encapsulating the full debate and it shows flashes of bias IMO. I understand you may be on the Green side of things and thats cool, but there really is no wrong choice. The top guys are not separated by that much talent so you have to dig deeper. Who has the dog in them? Who has that relentless drive to be the best? You can see that in film. You can see who creates gravity for their team. Mobley was a support player. Suggs was a support player. Cade is a catalyst like Jalen, but without the athleticism. He gets credited for "good defense" because of his measurables, but if you look at film the guy breaks down alot on defense. He is an offensive minded player, who has the stats to play good D, but does not give all out effort on that side, but yet the story is he's some lock down dude.

Its all a popularity contest at this point. Nobody is revealing anything new. Mobley and Suggs didnt even want to work out here. Cade is from Dallas. The choice is clear! LOL