Good read Nike, I see Valanciunas being pretty good on the boards and pretty good on defense from day one when he is not in foul trouble. I do think he will have some initial issues with fouls since he is an active defender in the post. On the offensive end I don't see him doing much unless it's in transition or just an open lay-up or dunk. I love Kyle and think he will help that team get a lot of easy points because he likes to push the ball. I think the wild card in all of this will be Orlando. When will they trade D12? At the all star break? If they don't get an offer they like maybe they don't trade him at all. Maybe they get back Andrew Bynum in the deal. Regardless of Bynum or D12, I think Andrew Nicholson will have a terrific year on offense besides either player. That team does not have a coach yet but I still see them sneaking into the play-offs , unless they trade D12 to New Jersey for Lopez and Humphries before the trade deadline. Having said that I agree with your assessment of the value for that pick, probably 10 - 14 in next summers draft.
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=936 Value for Kyle Lowry by Kevin Pelton In the NBA, teams don’t trade for players, they trade for contracts. Kyle Lowry, reportedly acquired Thursday by the Toronto Raptors from the Houston Rockets, has one of the most favorable deals for any veteran player. Over the next two seasons, Lowry will be paid a little less than $12 million for borderline All-Star performance as a starting point guard. Based on comparable players, we project Lowry to provide somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 WARP, which would generally command nearly $30 million on the open market. Still, the Rockets dealt Lowry, possibly because he was still disgruntled with Head Coach Kevin McHale despite getting his starting job back when Goran Dragic agreed to sign with the Phoenix Suns yesterday. In return, Houston needed to get a valuable asset. GM Daryl Morey settled on a future first-round pick from the Raptors, plus throw-in Gary Forbes. As is customary, the pick is protected at the top of the lottery–within the top three next year, the top two in 2014 and 2015 and if the top overall pick in 2016 and 2017, according to Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle. However, Toronto also agreed to protect the pick the other direction, meaning the Raptors will keep their pick if it is outside the lottery. The Rockets aren’t quite guaranteed a lottery pick because of the possibility Toronto makes the playoffs each of the next five seasons, in which case Houston gets a 2018 first-round pick, but the protections generally suggest the Rockets will get a valuable pick. The question, then, is just how good the pick Houston eventually gets would have to be to match the $17.7 million in surplus value Lowry projects to provide over the next two seasons. Based on how past picks have performed over their first four seasons, plus the rookie scale contract, that translates into the same value as the No. 12 pick. That analysis leaves out one important factor–the time value of performance. All other things equal, teams would prefer to trade a win later to get a win now, and the Rockets won’t begin reaping the value of the Raptors’ pick until at least the 2013-14 season. Most of the surplus value comes at the end of the rookie contract, which may not come for years. Based on that, I think Houston would have to get a top-10 pick to feel good about the trade. The surplus value of the average No. 10 pick is $20.5 million over the life of a rookie contract. As a counterpoint, the Rockets may not mind deferring value to the future as they bide their time trying to find the superstar that is their white whale. Lowry’s trade value goes down with every game he plays, while the pick will retain its value and might be easier for Houston to trade.
Exactly. If history is a guide (and it isn't always a good one, to be fair), then hanging on to the pick, with luck, might be the smart move. I'd like to know if we can defer taking the pick if we are presented with the option. In other words, does the option exist of deferring the pick?
THat's the key right there. By 2014 he'll be a UFA and have essentially no value to the Rockets (and technically could hurt draft positions the previous two seasons), and the pick could either be very valuable or already deployed in late lotto. I 'm beginning to think a rapid ascent-descent for Toronto is the best case scenario. Hard to say where the Rockets will be by then. You can imagine a scenario where Les gets fed up, Morey moves on, and the new GM gets a free top 3 selection in 2017 when Toronto implodes.
What's so great about Stephen Curry? Other than fantasy basketball, he hasn't done anything significant to make him better than Lowry. Especially on the defensive end.
Toronto a sleeper team...might not make the playoffs this year but will raise some eyebrows as a team on the rise in the east
It's not a bad thought. The key to the rapid ascent theory is for the 2 rookies to not be stars. If Lowry is able to push them into the playoffs, they'll be hard pressed to add more talent through the draft with mid-teens pick (as we well know), and this is a contract year for DeRozan. Will they re-sign him? It's not far fetched to see them filling their roster with Kleizas and Landry Fields types that wouldn't give them the flexibility to replace Lowry in 2 years. It's practically their M.O. I should also mention Cleveland as a team in that fight for a last playoff spot. They were all of 2 games behind Toronto last year, and will add a healthy Varejao, and should expect big improvements from Irving and Tristan Thompson. If Waiters, the #4 overall pick turns out to be good, they could easily jump over Toronto. There's real upside to this pick. The only team that will certainly be worse than Toronto is Charlotte.
I know the Raptors won't beat the following teams for playoff spots, barring injury: Heat Celtics Bulls Nets Pacers Sixers Knicks And I don't see how they have gotten better than the Bucks, who almost made the playoffs and improved. I'm confident that we will get the lotto pick next year, if we keep it.
Yeah, he's probably #11 on that list, although Curry is questionable in my opinion. I would take the upside of a Rubio, Wall, or Lillard over Lowry, although i wouldn't say any of the 3 are clearly "better" than Lowry at the moment. The trade is not the end of the world. I thought we could have gotten more, but then again, i'm not in the GM's chair making the phone calls. I'm not hating on Morey, just disappointed we didn't get more for Lowry. He did indeed hurt our barganing power by going public with his discontent. All in all, i still think Toronto got the better of the deal. But at least we didn't trade him for Pau Gasol.
Agree - their whole future depends on Valenciunas and Ross developing into stars the way Bosh and Carter did for them for their previous playoff teams. I agree with you that Bargnani sort of is what he is, a 7 foot PF who is a capable scorer yet positively allergic to rebounding and defense (the Anti-Omer Asik...). Other than that it's hard to see with this trade in place how they get better faster.
yes they have. he sucked last year. but to your point, i don't know what other options were available to Morey so i can't very will chide him for how things turned out. just a bit disappointed in the outcome, that's all.
the Bulls are a question mark to me, isn't Rose going to miss the entire season recovering from surgery? They had a good record without him last year...Thibs teams will always bring it on the defensive end a team I am interested to see is Washington. if Nene comes back healthy, they have some solid veteran pieces around Wall now. noone else on that team is a world beater, but at least they will have the consistency they have been lacking since...jordan was playing?
Good analysis by the OP -- better for instance than anything Solomon at the Chron has done. The Lowry trade is a total gamble. And not in the sense of not knowing how a young player will develop, but in the sense of going to vegas and throwing money in a slot machine or on the roulette wheel. I like the trade the further I get away from it. Basically, the Rockets are betting that Toronto will have a pretty bad season in the next 1-3 years. Looking at the history of the Raptors, that is not a bad bet. A lot of things could happen. The Raps are depending on two rookies, and both Bargnani and Lowry have had some injury issues. Best reasonable case scenario, I see 5-9 teams as better than Toronto (Miami, Boston, Brooklyn, Pacers, Chicago (all probably), Washington, Detroit, Philadelphia, Milwaukee (possibly)). So, basically, if things work out well for Toronto, then they are in the playoffs. If things work out badly for them the pick will probably be around 8 like it was this year. Most probably though they will be fighting for a playoff spot and we will be biting our nails at the end of the season -- likely hoping they get into the playoffs so we do not end up with the 14th pick...again.
<a href="http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=222776">Ray Allen going to the Heat</a> didn't exactly help our cause here, though I'm not sure it hurt it either. I think it's safe to say Boston is ahead of Toronto still, but just sucks because we don't need it any more top-heavy over there. I still don't believe the Rockets will rebuild, but if they do, got to hope Howard goes to New Jersey and I'd prefer to see the Rockets send Scola and Martin to those middle-of-the-pack teams in the East, just to make it more difficult for Toronto.
rockets helped bucks fill their greatest void after that trade. Now that they can protect the paint with dalembert and sanders, they are making the playoffs again. Almost all the teams in the east haved improved besides orlando
Very good analysis, better than the chronic or 610 Sports Radio Texans/porno numnuts. I think the protected lotto pick is much more valuable and tradeable than the disgruntled Lowry. His market value wasn't as high as I would have thought. But he caused issues in Memphis as a second stringer and then again in Houston when Dragic became first string. Both got him deported. I concur with your analysis of Toronto's standings in the east. There will be at least 8 teams better than their record. And if Calderon gives Lowry any competition, Lowry could go off and blow up that team as well. I think Lowry will end up in Phila soon. Thats where he would shut his pie hole and just play. Of course he would blow up to 240 lbs on the Philly cheeseteaks and eventually get benched.
