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Trump Crisis Finally Hits Stocks As Concerns Mount Over GOP Defections

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by adoo, May 17, 2017.

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  1. adoo

    adoo Member

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    that's cool; your preferred chart also corroborates the TTM PE chart, insofar as

    depicting the current PE being ~ 40% below the level in 2000, at the tail end of the Internet bubble​
     
    #141 adoo, Oct 12, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2018
  2. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    Looking good.
     
    #142 SamFisher, Oct 24, 2018
  3. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    Actually it is a good time to buy. The 260 area in the SPY/S&P 500 looks pretty solid. The market has traditionally outperformed the following 12 months after mid term elections.
     
    #143 robbie380, Oct 24, 2018
  4. adoo

    adoo Member

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    there is just way to much volatility from now to the mid-term
    [​IMG]

    the rising fear index, at ~ 25, still has a long way to go to reach the Feb 2018 high of ~37. the mid-term election will induce more fear driving the VIX to be closer to its previous 2018 high. i wlil dip my toes in the water ~ 3 days after the mid term election


    do you mean to say

    the stock market has out-performed other investment alternatives, such as fixed income / precious metals , etc. ?
    ​

    since the 2008/2009 crash, the stock market has outperformed fixed income and precious metals;
    u don't even have to add the qualifier "12 mo after the mid term election"
     
    #144 adoo, Oct 24, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2018
    Hakeemtheking likes this.
  5. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    Well two things... you get significantly better returns when you are buying when volatility is above 25 and especially above 30.

    [​IMG]
    And that’s the post mid term stat I was referring to.
     
    #145 robbie380, Oct 24, 2018
  6. adoo

    adoo Member

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    more fear factors have surfaced,
    • the 12 mailed bombs in the US
    • the Chinese / Russians listening in to the dotard's iPhone
      • they know who Trump has been calling besides Hannity
        • China could leverage the influence of Trump supporters, such as Shelton Edelson and Steve Wynn, both have HUGE investments in the PRC, to its advantage as it relates to the trade war
    ​
    the fear index has risen to 27+; despite faster GDP growth, in the US, in Q2 and Q3, as well as impressive earnings reported by such behemoths as Amazon and Google, the market has tanked again today.
     
    #146 adoo, Oct 26, 2018
  7. adoo

    adoo Member

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    the DOW was up 250 in the AM; then the rumor that dotard's team is planning tariffs on remaining $257 billion in Chinese goods. the DOW reversed 600 point, finishing ~ minus 350 for the day.
     
    #147 adoo, Oct 29, 2018
  8. Hakeemtheking

    Hakeemtheking Member

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    Trump is killing the stock market with these tariffs, along with rising interest rates. At least the former he could control. Shooting himself in the foot.
     
    #148 Hakeemtheking, Oct 29, 2018
  9. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    Wonder if it will affect the midterm elections? I would guess no, as most Trump voters don't own any stock. In fact, relatively few Americans (as a %) have any direct stock holdings, but a few oldsters may be watching their retirement funds shrink.
     
    #149 B-Bob, Oct 29, 2018
    IVFL likes this.
  10. IVFL

    IVFL Member

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    I have a limited amount of stock but I have been watching the stock market knowing that so many things are tied to it. I think most people assume that the strength of the economy is tied to the stock market and if it is going down the perception of the economy will go down as well. That is where it will hurt in the midterms. Then again people might be slow to realize the stock market is down and it will have a negligible effect.

    What I am really trying to say is that I know nothing about how people will vote and the stock market concerns me right now. :)
     
    #150 IVFL, Oct 29, 2018
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  11. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    Edit wrong thread lol
     
    #151 robbie380, Oct 29, 2018
  12. Hakeemtheking

    Hakeemtheking Member

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    I am nearly 100% cash. Then again, if I zig, others should zag. Lol
     
    #152 Hakeemtheking, Oct 29, 2018
  13. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    #153 NewRoxFan, Oct 29, 2018
  14. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    Interesg rates still aren't back to normal from the 08 crash. They have nowhere to go but up
     
    #154 pgabriel, Oct 29, 2018
  15. Hakeemtheking

    Hakeemtheking Member

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    I understand that. The problem is that the Feds almost always over do it one way or the other, causing too much liquidity or not enough. To achieve proper equilibrium must be something very difficult to accomplish because those guys at the Federal Reserve are really smart people and always overshoot nonetheless.
     
    #155 Hakeemtheking, Oct 29, 2018
  16. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    Has nothing to do with trump's tariff wars, Saudi Arabia, bombs sent, the Pittsburgh synagogue mass shooting...

     
    #156 NewRoxFan, Oct 30, 2018
  17. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    He is right the market will likely go down, but it isn't going to matter who is in charge. It looks like Democrats will take the house so he will blame them.
     
    #157 Air Langhi, Oct 30, 2018
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