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[TROPICS] 2013 Hurricane Season

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by LonghornFan, Apr 17, 2013.

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LonghornFan Contributing Member

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Do NOT want a 'cane but would seriously love a nice, soaking tropical storm or two to help Memorial Park revive. It's so depressing there still, 2 years after the drought and hearing we may be having a repeat this year, not good.

This year the names are:

Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dorian
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

Of the 18, nine are expected to become hurricanes with four to be major hurricanes, says the latest Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast by noted forecasters at the Colorado State University, Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray.

According to Klotzbach and Gray, they anticipate the 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have enhanced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology.

The forecasters noted that the tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely.

"We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean," said the release. "Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted."

Forecasters are estimating 95 named storm days and 40 hurricane days.

This forecast is said to be based on a new extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed utilizing 29 years of past data.

Hurricane season begins June 1 and closes November 30 each year.
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#1 LonghornFan, Apr 17, 2013

Lady_Di Contributing Member

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Oh, look, there's my sister name....and a couple of friends names!

I saw a report on this year's season and that FL has a higher chance of getting hit by hurricanes this year than last year. Can't remember which channel, though.

#2 Lady_Di, Apr 17, 2013
LonghornFan Contributing Member

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Hurricane season to be extremely active.

Batten down the hatches.

Forecasters said Wednesday that the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be "above normal and possibly extremely active," predicting three to six major hurricanes this season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its outlook that it forecast seven to 11 Atlantic hurricanes for the 2013 season, which officially begins on June 1.

"NOAA predicts an above normal and possibly an extremely active hurricane season with a range of 13 to 20 named storms," seven to 11 of which are forecast to turn into hurricanes and three to six of which are forecast to turn into major hurricanes, said Kathryn Sullivan, acting NOAA administrator.
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Major hurricanes are defined as Category 3 or above, with winds of more than 110 mph.

The last time a major hurricane made landfall in the U.S. was Wilma, in 2005, according to the Associated Press. The seven-year landfall drought is the longest in the U.S. on record, The AP reports.

Hurricane Sandy was downgraded to tropical storm status just before it made landfall in New Jersey last October. Sandy caused $50 billion in damage.

The numbers for 2013 are above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Last year was the third-busiest storm season on record.

NOAA's seasonal hurricane outlook does not predict how many storms will hit land or where the storms will strike; it only provides an overview of the season.

"With the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active season predicted, everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving forecasts in the face of these storms and ensuring that Americans are prepared and ready ahead of time," Sullivan said.

Several climate factors are contributing to the upcoming season being busier, forecasters said.

"These factors include a continuation of the climate pattern that has been responsible for the ongoing era of high activity in the Atlantic that began in 1995; warmer than average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and near-normal, year-average seasonal temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which means El Nino ... is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation this hurricane season," Sullivan said.

Atlantic hurricane season lasts for six months, typically peaking between late August and mid-October.

"This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic waters and conducive winds patterns coming from Africa."
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#3 LonghornFan, May 23, 2013
theogcasey Contributing Member

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LonghornFan said: ↑

Hurricane season to be extremely active.
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They say this every year.

#4 theogcasey, May 23, 2013

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LonghornFan Contributing Member

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I know, I would really REALLY like a tropical storm soaker though for all of Texas to get out of this drought.

#5 LonghornFan, May 23, 2013
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LonghornFan said: ↑

I know, I would really REALLY like a tropical storm soaker though for all of Texas to get out of this drought.
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We got pounded on the day of Game 3. Wasn't that like 8 inches?

#6 heypartner, May 23, 2013
theogcasey Contributing Member

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heypartner said: ↑

We got pounded on the day of Game 3. Wasn't that like 8 inches?
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It was enough to flood 288 and cause me to almost miss the game!

#7 theogcasey, May 23, 2013

Xenon Contributing Member

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theogcasey said: ↑

They say this every year.
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That's not even remotely true.

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2012/june2012/jun2012.pdf

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2009/june2009/jun2009.pdf

#8 Xenon, May 23, 2013
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heypartner said: ↑

We got pounded on the day of Game 3. Wasn't that like 8 inches?
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Yup, we got around 6 inches then and another 4 inches last week, but since they gauge the rain at Bush Airport and they only received like an inch we are still considered a drought area. We're still around 5-8 inches below average rainfall I believe.

#9 LonghornFan, May 23, 2013
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heypartner said: ↑

We got pounded on the day of Game 3. Wasn't that like 8 inches?
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twss.

you know y'all were thinkin' it.

Honestly Weather seems almost like the news now... if it isn't sensational they think they're doing it wrong. WHO is that way too.... everything is a pandemic/epidemic. So is medicine in general.... thousands of "new maladies" every day and a new pill for all of them.

#10 CrazyDave, May 23, 2013

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Barbara is officially in the Gulf of Mexico now. Still has the EPAC name.. Will it make it here?

I wouldn't bet on it but anything can happen

#11 davidio840, May 30, 2013
LonghornFan Contributing Member

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Do want the rain please, just don't sit out there and try to come to us before June 11th. I do not want you here when I leave for Peter Island. I kinda want a clean flight.

#12 LonghornFan, May 30, 2013
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I am in the same situation lol. Leaving for Vegas on June 6th. I would prefer getting there as soon as possible and not spending the whole day in the airport due to weather delays.

#13 davidio840, May 30, 2013

SwoLy-D Contributing Member

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^ WTF

I am leaving on vacation in June July, August, or September. Please don't rain all that month.

#14 SwoLy-D, May 30, 2013
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#15 fallenphoenix, May 30, 2013
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Houston could use a drought-busting rainstorm.

Bring it.

#16 ima_drummer2k, May 30, 2013
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heypartner said: ↑

Wasn't that like 8 inches?
Click to expand...

#17 SwoLy-D, May 30, 2013
Lady_Di Contributing Member

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We have an invest and it could bring some soaking rains here! My grass will be thankful.

#18 Lady_Di, Jul 5, 2013

LonghornFan Contributing Member

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PLEASE bring the rain. The light rain shower last night did nothing and my plants are all trying to stay alive.

#19 LonghornFan, Jul 5, 2013
DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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Lady_Di said: ↑

We have an invest and it could bring some soaking rains here! My grass will be thankful.

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Meh, every year we ask for a nice invest or TS to camp on top of Austin to fill our lakes, and it never happens.

So screw it, we will be avoiding all storms this year.

DD

#20 DaDakota, Jul 5, 2013

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