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The Rockets going forward from now until next October

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Nook, Nov 7, 2022.

  1. Nook

    Nook Member

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    I don't want to be a downer, but it is pretty clear that the Houston Rockets are not going to make the playoffs or compete for the play-in tournament in 2022-2023.

    This thread really isn't about whether the Rockets are smart to try and move up in the lottery, as it doesn't appear that there is much choice involved. The Rockets simply are not close to being an even average NBA team.

    With that in mind it opens up a lot of questions for the organization and how they should and likely will conduct their business going forward.

    We will leave what the owner will demand out of the equation as no one really knows how Tilman will feel in a month, not to mention in five minutes. Any assumption about ownership is that they will do what all owners do and protect their investment in the team above sentimentality.

    NBA DRAFT
    As for the 2023 draft, the Rockets are in a group of 5-6 teams that will be competing for the bottom of the lottery. Teams like HOU, ORL, DET, CHAR and likely SA all are going to be battling and hoping to get the number one pick in the draft. The team that gets the #1 pick will catapult into a higher tier next year with Victor Wembanyama certain to be a franchise player if he stays healthy. Teams like HOU and ORL would likely also vault up into the next group if they get the second pick in the draft and add Scooter Henderson to run the point.

    The NBA lottery odds are flat at the top now to prevent overt tanking for the worst record in the league. As it sits right now, the Rockets have a 14% chance at getting the #1 pick and another 14% of getting the #2 pick. The Rockets have the right to swap picks with BKL as well. So, if the Nets get lucky in the lottery, the Rockets can benefit.

    Overall, through the lottery adding the Rockets and Nets odds together give the Rockets about a 1:3 chance at either Wembanyama or Henderson. It is far from a slam dunk, seeing as either one is likely a franchise altering player, it is something that is realistically possible.

    The Rockets have about a 2:3 chance of getting a top 4 pick. There is a drop off after the top two picks, but we will not know how much for months. For the Rockets, the hope is that another player emerges as a legitimate star player to increase the Rockets odds of improving in the draft.

    The Rockets also have the Bucks #1 pick, but that has little value to the Rockets going forward. Eric Gordon and possible Tate will be dealt at some point for future assets. However, that isn't going to really impact the Rockets over the next few years.

    INTERNAL PLAYER DEVELOPMENT - COACHING
    The other main way that the Rockets can position themselves to be a better team long term is through coaching and player development. I am not very optimistic about this part of the equation. The Rockets are a poorly disciplined and executing team on the court. They fail to run even passable sets and they are too often out of position even considering their age. I have seen nothing to make me believe that the coaching staff is even average in the modern NBA and I question the habits and disjointed style of play that the young players are learning. There can at worst be long term poor habits learned, and at best it just stunts the growth of the young players until a better system and coach is put in charge.

    Stephen Silas is a good role model, but he lacks structure and the organization as a whole really lacks an identity. The Rockets had this issue under Morey as well until they brought in MDA. They tried to be tough and disciplined under McHale but it wasn't going to work.

    As currently constructed, the coaching staff and players lack any real identity. They have tried shoe horning Lucas and Hollins to give the organization a tough and disciplined mentality, but it just isn't working and doesn't fit. It isn't a surprise as the front office doesn't even have a real chemistry or sense of identity.

    That isn't to say that players like Green, Smith, Sengun and Porter will not improve. They are young and will improve. They all do a lot of work outside of the organization. It is just not likely they will improve either as much or as quickly as they would with another coach or organization.

    ROSTER

    The Rockets have some talent on the roster. They have added the #2 and #3 players in the draft the last couple seasons and they also have some other like Sengun that have upside. The largest issue is that the Rockets do not have a franchise player or a real leader. They have players with the upside of being all-stars but none of them are really special at this point and all have warts that will likely keep them from being anything more than all stars. That really limits the Rockets from a winning perspective for the time being. This obviously can change depending on the draft and continued development of the players. However, there is no one that is obviously special on this team.

    NOW WHAT?
    It is a question of patience on the X axis and the organization being sick of losing on the Y axis. The only route to a quick turn-around is a top two pick in the NBA lottery and a change in who coaches the team. Unfortunately, the draft is a long time down the road and the odds are still more likely than not that the Rockets don't get a franchise player in this draft.
    I think that a coaching change is inevitable, and no it will not all be because of Stephen Silas. Coaching rookies with a rookie GM, and a newish owner is not easy to do - but Silas isn't doing a good job, so he will be the scapegoat.
    At this point I think fans need to watch the Rockets because they enjoy basketball, because short of a little luck, this looks like a long rebuild. The Rockets need improvement from all facets of the organization to become a winner again.
     
  2. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    stopped reading at "not going to make the playoffs"

    :cool:
     
  3. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    I think you are correct about us not competing . But, i think that its too early to say what we have seen is what we will see.

    #1 issue for me has been the lack of tate . Having that structure and competing and being strict ... we need veteran enforcers on our team . Tate needs to come back , be vocal , and be the leader that the team needs . KPJ too erratic , sengun , green , and smith too young ... gordon , not invested enough .

    #2 issue . Playing time has NOT been meritocratic . Eason and garuba are both ahead of Smith . But , our priority is to give PT to smith to "develop" him. We did the same thing with green last year ... christopher was ahead of him , yet Green got the minutes. I beleive this is mandated by the front office. I feel like a coaching staff would LOOOOOVE to be able to send the message " just cause you are the top pick doesn't mean your spot is given to you" . Their ability to deliver that message has been stripped IMO

    i think the thought process that Wemby or Henderson will save us is also misplaced. They could easily get hurt and we are in the dumps , or they may not transition as well as we think.

    Its very hard to evaluate how we are doing and how we are growing when parts of the team are designed to lose. I have no idea how smith will look with better players around him.

    We need to reward players who are playing well and give the others time in practice etc.

    Its sad that the focus for THIS YEAR is already on the Draft and NEXT YEAR . It should not be so . I have not been watching the rockets as much . Its hard to enjoy the B-Ball we are playing .
     
  4. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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  5. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    Debatable on how long the road will be to playoff respectability. It has a lot to do with the competition in the West as well.

    I think Sengun could be that special player but I agree that our organization isn’t set up to groom him or our other high draft picks properly. Imagine what a guy like Popovich could do with our roster.
     
  6. Astrodome

    Astrodome Member
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    Astros are done so I will morph into a consistent game watcher instead of a boxscore analyzer. Nice write-up Nook.
     
  7. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    more defeatism?...just what we needed...
     
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  8. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Defeatism? No, it’s about being objective. Things are not going as well as hoped. It could be worse but there is nothing exceptionally promising about this group.
     
  9. Nook

    Nook Member

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    This is a dynamic, it can change and I expect we will see improvement from the players. I just question whether they have the talent, coaching and are in an organization to bring the best out of them.

    As for wins, I am not expecting or even wanting a lot of wins at this point. The issue is that there are a lot of red flags.

    Anyone can get hurt, but if there is a “savior” it is adding a franchise player in a draft with two of them.
     
  10. bmd

    bmd Member

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    It’s not surprising they still suck. Every team that tanks is terrible in years 1, 2, and 3 of the rebuild. Improvement doesn’t come until year 4. And the big leap comes in year 5.

    We’re in year 3. We’re supposed to be just as bad this year as year 1, just like all the other teams who do a complete tank job rebuild.

    So as of now, it’s still all going according to plan.
     
  11. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    trust the process
     
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  12. riko

    riko Member

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    Instead of Green they should have selected Mobley and jury is out on Jabari . But he is young so I’ll give him a chance.

    Watching Mobley it is clear that young man is mature beyond his years and will be become a annual defensive player of the year candidate for the next 10 plus years. He and Sengun would have formed arguably the best are one of the best frontlines for the next 10 plus years together.

    Green is not going to be a cornerstone player with his limitations as a guy who makes others better. He is a piece not a cornerstone where as Mobley potentially could be a downright two way monster for a decade.
     
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  13. Juxtaposed Jolt

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    Thanks for this analysis, but imo, you typed all this out and did all this work to really, say nothing that we don't already know. I think a post like this should really come at the end of the season. Sure, nothing might change between now and season's end...but also, many things might change.

    tl;dr for anyone who ain't got time for all that:
    NBA draft: Wemby and Scoot are good. Rockets have a chance at them, but it's mostly the same with every other 'bad' / tanking team.
    Internal player development - Coaching: Our young players can improve but the coaching staff might need a major overhaul, because Silas is most likely not the answer.
    Roster: We have no one with the "it" factor on this team, nor anyone with leadership capabilities.
    Now what?: If we don't get a top 2 pick and/or a coaching change, the rebuild is going to slog on for a while.

    I mean, not to discourage you from posting stuff like this, but there was no real insight that I personally gleamed. In fact, I don't know what the point of this thread is.
     
    don grahamleone and Richie_Rich like this.
  14. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Contributing Member

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    agree we need to hit on a top pick and get a new coach. I like the young talent on the team but player development has been a weak point of our org going back to Morey. We built the best nba farm system with the Vipers, why can’t we build out our player development? And why is Nix playing major minutes? Lol
     
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  15. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    Oh one more thing I NEED to see

    Ryan hollins has got to go . Bro is a last place type commentator . Shoulda known we’d be fighting for number 1 the second they retained him .
     
  16. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    I laugh at Joel Troell Embiid every day.
     
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  17. Genesis

    Genesis Contributing Member

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    Falling back from the high of another Astros world series win... I'm back to just not expecting much and enjoying Rockets basketball. I personally don't think Silas will last beyond this season and looked up possible coaches to replace him. I'm not too enamored with this list lol.

    https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba...-dantoni-frank-vogel/hu1c3chqv1ykwttsbzdf89nb

    1. Mike D'Antoni
    D'Antoni to Philadelphia almost makes too much sense, which is why he's certainly an option.

    With Daryl Morey calling the shots and a roster that includes James Harden, Montrezl Harrell, Danuel House and P.J. Tucker, the Sixers have recreated a lot of
    what D'Antoni worked with in Houston. D'Antoni is currently a coaching consultant in New Orleans but he'd surely answer Morey's call to at least hear out the pitch
    of a potential reunion.

    That said, it's hard to envision D'Antoni leaving his position to go anywhere else in the league.

    2. Sam Cassell
    There's something to be said about continuity, which is what gives Cassell a leg up on most other potential candidates for the Sixers job.

    Cassell followed Rivers to Philadelphia in 2020 after spending six seasons on his staff in Los Angeles. Cassell has yet to earn a head coaching job in the NBA but during every cycle is a hot name on the interview circuit. If he were to take over in the interim, Cassell would be a familiar voice that could implement some minor changes with hopes of a different result.

    3. Igor Kokoskov
    Defense is the chief concern in Brooklyn, but Kokoskov is already on the staff and is a well-known offensive maestro.

    Kokoskov is in his first season with the Nets but does have one year of head coaching experience that he picked up during the 2018-19 NBA season with the Suns. Perhaps we'll find that Kokoskov was brought in to be an option to assume the helm if and when things go awry.

    4. Charles Lee
    Throughout the last several hiring cycles, Lee's name has been one of the hottest on the market.

    Lee, who will be 38 this season, is now listed as the associate head coach of the Bucks. It is only a matter of time before he's tabbed to take on a head coaching job. If a team is in search of a fresh face to reinvigorate the culture, Lee is a great option.

    5. Jacque Vaughn
    It turns out that Vaughn is next in line for the Nets. At least temporarily.

    After joining the organization in 2016, Vaughn took over as the interim coach for the Nets in 2020, leading them to play inspired basketball at the NBA "Bubble." After losing out on the head coaching job to Steve Nash, Vaughn was retained and given the title of assistant head coach.

    In order to avoid shaking too much up, the team has elected to go with someone that's already been around.

    6. Frank Vogel
    Defense? Check. Championship pedigree? Check.

    Vogel's time as the Lakers' lead man came to an end less than two years after he led the franchise to its 18th NBA title. After succeeding under the scrutiny that comes with coaching LeBron James and the Lakers, any pressures that Vogel could face moving forward should feel like nothing.

    7. Kenny Atkinson
    Atkinson agreed to and then backed out of a commitment to lead the Hornets this season, instead staying with the Warriors for a second season.

    Perhaps Atkinson is in line to succeed Steve Kerr or maybe he's waiting for a better opportunity. Atkinson was technically the lead man of the first season of the Kevin Durant-Kyrie Irving era in Brooklyn, but resigned 62 games in and never coached a game with Durant in it. That could be rectified with a reunion … or he could make his way to Philadelphia to ultimately stick it to his old team's divisional rival.

    Atkinson is largely known for his player development and connection with younger players, which would actually fit in Brooklyn, as the Nets have a group of young players that need to be brought up to speed in order to contribute to a team with high aspirations.

    8. Adrian Griffin
    Griffin was known for his defense throughout his nine-year NBA career and that is again his calling card as an assistant coach, as he is in his fourth season as a member of Nick Nurse's staff in Toronto.

    If there is any coach that could be grabbed from another staff mid-season, it would be a member of Nurse's staff. Toronto's lead man is adamant about his assistants getting opportunities and in 2021, allowed Chris Finch to take the Timberwolves' job mid-season.

    9. Dave Joerger
    An in-house hire for Philadelphia that does have head coaching experience.

    Joerger has six seasons as the lead man under his belt and while the Kings stint didn't go too well (that might say more about Sacramento than Joerger), he took the reins of the Grit-and-Grind Era Grizzlies from Lionel Hollins. It's important to know what it's like to coach a team with an established identity.

    10. Terry Stotts
    Stotts last coached in the 2020-21 season, when he led the Trail Blazers to the NBA Playoffs for the eighth consecutive year. A veteran coach with over 30 years of coaching experience, Stotts would raise the floor wherever he lands, but that might not be enough for a team with title aspirations.

    11. Jay Wright
    It doesn't get much more Philly than Wright.

    While Wright recently retired from his post as Villanova's head coach, the Hall of Famer could take on a new challenge if he were to accept the Sixers' job. It might take a lot, but if Wright were to take any NBA job, it would almost certainly be in Philly. Wright's set to become a CBS analyst this season and with his next career set to begin, it's hard to place him higher on the list.
     
  18. pmac

    pmac Contributing Member

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    This board really makes too much of the coaching. It hasn't been great but has nothing to do with the big let down this year.

    We were all looking for Green and/or Jabari to show signs that they're rising superstars in the making and they haven't shown that yet. If Green was that guy he would show it with any coach just like many before him have done with bad coaches.

    Once you find 'the guy', everything else starts to fall into place. It's even easier to attract the better coaches. There's still time but there probably isn't a generational talent on the roster yet.

    This team desperately needs a player that can consistently put pressure on the defense by attacking the basket with finishing ability. Our perimeter guys don't scare anyone going into the paint and their effectiveness just depends on how well their shot is falling that day.
     
  19. Qan

    Qan Member

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    Did you mention new coach? Yah? Then yeah, new coach could work.
     
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  20. Ancient Moabite

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    Actually this is beginning of year two , the tear down was Harden trade which made it a throw away season, then it began with Jalen pick (and other 1st rounders) with now Jabari (Eason/Ty W.) which begins now year two of the said rebuild
     
    jiggyfly, Kevooooo and pmac like this.

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