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The picks that we owe OKC and tanking incentive

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by snowconeman22, Dec 28, 2022.

  1. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    I have heard many people on this board agree that this is the last year of ( more or less ) intentionally being bad . The primary reasons people believe this is that OKC has a claim to our pick next year AND because of a large amount of Cap Space we have opening up .

    While I agree that those are important factors . Especially the cap , I don't believe the pick issue is as big of a deal as everyone thinks

    That pick is protected 1-4 . If we are the worst record in the league next year , we still have a 50/50 shot of keeping the pick. In fact being 2nd or 3rd worst also has those same odds of keeping the pick . Even if we are 4th or 5th worst , there's still about a 40% chance of keeping the pick .

    Stone made a similar gamble in 2021 . We got the right side of the coin flip and got the #2 pick . That was at a different point in our rebuild . However , you could argue that it was even bigger stakes. If we came out of that horrible season ( worst in NBA ) and didnt keep the pick - what would we have to show for it ? It was a big gamble to not get much present value for Harden and push the young players from the Nets to other destinations .

    We will still be young next year , the front office and coaching staff will still be trying to temper expectations ...

    Why is the chance of losing our pick to OKC such a strong anti-tank incentive ?

    " we cant afford to give OKC the 6th pick , lets sign vets so we are the 8th seed and give them the 15th instead! "

    wanting to get young guys more meaningful games down the stretch , hoping to get playoff experience ... those are legit reasons to try and build up the team .

    IMO the biggest reason why we would make moves is because Stone and Silas are on the hot seat ... or they will be next year .

    But , pick wise .... the swap we OKC in 2025 ( the year after ive been talking about ) is protected 1-20 ... so if we are still a bad team there's no danger of losing that .

    Just saying , OKC owning our protected pick is not some magic wall that guarantees the tank is over and we have to win. This baby could keep rolling right on
     
  2. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    Counterpoint - Here's a crazy idea, the Rockets could try to acquire better players and try not to lose 75% of their games not because of OKC or drafts or whatever but for the sake of .. winning games and entertaining people who pay to see and follow them.
     
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  3. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    losers always have the incentive to lose....
     
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  4. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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    Would that it were so simple
     
  5. kubli9

    kubli9 Contributing Member
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    This dude wants to tank through 2025.
     
  6. kjayp

    kjayp Contributing Member

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    if we arrive at next year...
    with another draft pick or two on the roster...
    and having spent like 50M in free agency...
    we sure as fk better not be a bottom dweller at that point...
    if we are... time to clean house...
    lol
     
  7. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    yall mistake me saying this as me WANTING to do it .

    just pointing out the scenario as I see it .
     
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  8. Believe It!

    Believe It! Member

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    If they get a real leader at the point AND a new coach, there's no way they sniff a top 5 pick for the foreseeable future.
     
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  9. kubli9

    kubli9 Contributing Member
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    Horrible scenario to come up with, as negative and pessimistic as they come. You should be ashamed of yourself.
     
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  10. Astrodome

    Astrodome Member
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    As our resident tank commissioner, this is the last of it. With 3 top 5 players in consecutive years and all of our bad contracts off the book, we should absolutely be a contender next year.

    Add a max player, a value deal and another draft pick to our developing studs. We should pass the majority of western teams next year.

    The losing ends in 40 games. We can just root for Bklyn to lose.
     
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  11. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    McMahon on Lowe was saying that Tilman wanted a 3 year rebuild only, i don't think the Rockets go into next season with the draft and PF Chang's as their whole plan (unless it's Victor)

    They'll take swings at Harden and whoever else is available i think.
     
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  12. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    If they promised a three year rebuild then yeah!

    DD
     
  13. Jontro

    Jontro Member

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  14. Dankstronaut

    Dankstronaut Way, way out here.
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    People have complained so much about KPJ leading the charge. Bringing back a surefire HOFer who could average 12 assists with his eyes closed is also not good enough. Kind of wonder what people think is out there?

    How do we feel about bringing in D'Angelo Russell? He scores pretty well, currently at 6.6 ast to 2.9 TO a game. He'll be 27 next season. Might not even be the crazy 45 million max to get him.
     
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  15. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    It is perhaps a bigger deal than you realise for a few reasons.
    1. The Rockets traded 2 picks (that have not yet conveyed) for Sengun to accelerate the rebuild early in the piece. Having 4 2021 first round picks was about gathering talent and seeing what panned out. Again, having 3 2022 first rounders is the same story. Get the talent early while we own our picks and let the talent get some experience

    2. The cap has been managed to be clear for 2023/4. The obvious idea is to add wins via the cap space pieces.

    3. Lucking out in 2021 is not the same as risking it for 2024. Wasting season one post-Harden and getting pick 5 would have hurt. But we had no real talent at that time and nothing else to do.
    Having young talent now (and potentially back to back to back top 5 picks) it is time to take that next step for 23/24 and bring in some vets to help the team win

    4. Tanking and handing over pick 5 or 6 is very different to trying hard and handing over pick 10. In one scenario there has been growth and progress, the other is repeated futility...

    I could go on and on. But the pick owed is the deadline to improve by. That is what they have been working towards.
    I love watching the Rockets win, but can stomach being bad once again this year in the hope of getting Vic or Scoot. After that it is time to lock and load
     
    #15 DrNuegebauer, Dec 28, 2022
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2022
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  16. dmoneybangbang

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    I expect the Rockets are going to trim the roster and make some moves but that doesn't necessarily mean we will blow our wad this upcoming offseason.
     
  17. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    thanks for the thoughtful reply .

    The only thing I’ll say is that you can’t give away pick 3 or 4 . The worst you can give away is 5 .

    I agree we have to bring in multiple vets .

    and this year FA crop isn’t the greatest . Stone really has a tough task . He’s got to find multiple “winning” guys and sign them to deals where it’s not an overpay.
     
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  18. napalm06

    napalm06 Huge Flopping Fan

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    I dont understand. Does this mean things like trading for Westbrook, Knight, and Shumpert? Make the Rockets Fertitta again?
     
  19. kingkingston

    kingkingston Member

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    lets win as many games as we can. We have more than enough young talent that will get better in the coming years. Free agency is the next period we have to get right.
     
    don grahamleone likes this.
  20. FLAGRANT1

    FLAGRANT1 Member

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    This is Houston. We do not incentivize losing here. These new fans f-ing sucks.
     
    kubli9 and don grahamleone like this.

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