Warning: This is a long post and it contains lots of numbers. If that doesn't interest you then ignore and move along. I was curious to look at what's changed from last year to this year on offense. Here's what I found but remember this is only offense. The whole point of this was to determine what's really changed, what hasn't and how much. The sample size for this year is obviously small but it's all we have at this point. 1. We have more players who look for their own shot then ever before. Wood, Cousins, Harden, Wall and Gordon all can create for themselves. Last year it was Harden, Westbrook and Gordon (no, I'm not counting Rivers). Numbers are below. 2. We are playing slower this year. 104.04 possessions per game last year to 100.38 this year. 3. Team TS% is pretty much the same. 4. Touches - The total number of touches per game is higher. 395 this year, 369 last. The average time per touch is about the same 3.17 this year and 3.22 last. The average number of dribbles per touch is also similar - 2.37 this year, 2.59 last. Points per touch - 0.285 this year 0.319 last. Overall, not a whole lot of difference. 5. Type of plays Transition - Number of transition possessions is down (23.5 last year to 18.8 this year), Points per possession (PPP) in transition is down ( 1.12 last year 1.08 this), points per game in transition is also down - 25.9 last year vs 20.3 this year. Mostly this is attributable to Westbrook pushing the pace and being very good in transition. Isolation - Isos per game is down ( 22.6 last year, 13.5 this year), PPP is up ( 1.07 this year and 1.04 last), iso point per game is way down (23.5 last year to 14.4 this year). Pick and Roll Ball Handler - more possessions this year (15.6 this year to 11.3 last year). PPP is up too (1.11 this year to 0.95 last year). Points are up quite a bit too (17.4 pts/gm this year to 10.8 last year). Much of this difference is due to Harden running more PnR this year and being very good at it (1.2 ppp). Pick and Roll Roll Man - twice the number of rolls to the hoop (5 last year and 10 this year). PPP is up slightly (1.09 this year to 1.05 last). Points per game is also doubled at from 5 to 10 pts/game. This change is directly attributable to Wood being on the floor. Post Up - about the same number (2.5 last year and 2.4 this year). PPP was better last year ( 0.74 this year to 0.85 last). Post up points per game are down (2.1 last year, 1.8 this). Basically we don't post up much at all and we aren't very good at it when we do. Spot Up - up slightly (28.8 this year, 27.4 last). PPP is down some this year (1.01 last year, 0.96 this year). Points per game is almost the same (27.7 last year and 27.5 this year). Hand off - basically the same (3.1 last year, 3.0 this year), PPP is also the same (0.9 last year, 0.88 this year), Points are similar ( 2.8 last year, 2.6 this year). Another type of shot that we don't take much. Cut - The number of shots off of cuts is down slightly ( 6.7 last year to 6.3 this year), PPP is up this year (1.5 this year and 1.22 last). Point per game is up (9.4 this year to 8.1 last). Off Screen - Down this year (2.7 last year to 2 this year). PPP is down a lot this year (0.97 last year to 0.56 this year). Points per game is down 50% (2.6 last year to 1.3) this year. Another type of shot that we basically don't take. Based on our horrible percentage so far this year that's a good thing. 6. Shooting Midrange - we are actually shooting fewer midrange this season (5.5 last year to 4.8 this year). FG% wasn't good last year but it's much worse this year (40.5% last year vs 34.2 this year). Left Corner 3 - Down this year (5.4 attempts last year to 4.8 this year). Percentage is also down (36.5 last year to 35.6 this year). Right Corner 3 - also down this year (6.2 last year and 4.5 this year). Percentage is up this year (38.9 this year to 36.5 last). Above the Break - Down too (33.5 last year to 28.4 this year). Percentage is about the same (33.4 last year to 33.5 this year). Overall fewer threes and more importantly fewer open 3s. We lose the math on those 3s that we aren't taking this year. 7. Turnovers - up slightly (from 14.7 last year to 15.1 this year) even though we have about 4 fewer possessions per game. 8. Free Throw Attempts - Down a little (26.1 last year to 24.9). FT% is also down slightly (79.1% last year to 76.4 this year). So what does all of that mean? First of all it means that we're generally taking the same type of shots. We're not scoring off of post ups, cuts, screens or midrange. We are still relying on Shots at the rim, free throws and 3s. The biggest difference is that we are isoing much less. The problem is that was one of the most efficient things that we did. We're also taking less threes and that's hurt so far. In order to make up for the lost 3s, we need to be much more efficient on the twos that are replacing them. So far we haven't been. As I said above, this years roster has more players that are looking for their own shot. Because of the the shot distribution has changed. Here's the FGA and TS% from last year vs this year to show who's taking the shots when they are on the floor: 2020 (per 36 minute numbers) ----------------------------- Westbrook 22.5 fga , 53.6 TS% Harden 22.3 fga , 62.6 TS% Gordon 16.4 fga , 51 TS% Green 13.2 fga , 68.2 TS% McLemore 12.1 fga , 62.2 TS% Covington 11.3 fga, 53.6 TS% Rivers 11.3 fga, 54.2 TS% Capela 10.9 fga, 62.6 TS% House 8.6 fga, 57.2 TS% Tucker 6.2 fga, 55.9 TS% Covington having the same TS% as WB surprised me. 2021 (per 36 minutes numbers) ----------------------------- Wood 18.6 fga, 59.9 TS% Cousins 17.0 fga, 41.9 TS% Wall 16.9 fga, 56.0 TS% Harden 16.5 fga, 63.5 TS% Gordon 15.0 fga, 58.2 TS% McLemore13.4 fga, 87.5 TS% Nwaba 11.3 fga, 48.8 TS% Brown 9.1 fga, 77.2 TS% Tate 8.0 fga, 63.8 TS% House 7.4 fga, 47.8 TS% Tucker 4.5 fga, 71.0 TS% A few observations: Harden, Gordon, House and Tucker are all getting fewer shots than last year. Cousins is getting up shots at a high rate but not making very many so far. Sterling Brown's production has been great but isn't sustainable. For the majority of the role players, they are getting the same type of shots that they were getting in past seasons. i.e. our spot up shooters are still spot up shooters. Right now our distribution is out of wack. We need to take more of some of the shot types where we are efficient and reduce the shots where we are inefficient. There's the numbers. Draw your own conclusions.
So tell me again why we would want the most efficient players to ever play the game to take less shots again? If we could have an offense where Harden took all the shots, I would. Obviously teams would double and triple team at half court which they did, and he would tire out which he does. However, as the great Rudy T said. They can't stop you, run that play again.
I think that you mean "Who sucks the least". Here's the numbers. These are totals for the season NOT per game. Tucker - 2 attempt - 50% Brown - 2 attempt - 50 % Wall - 13 attempts - 38.5% Wood - 17 attempts - 38.5% House - 1 attempt - 0% Cousins - 1 attempt - 0% Tate - 1 attempt - 0% Harden - 1 attempt - 0%
So it seems the new guys are the only ones enamored with the MidRange. The question is. . . .. Should we encourage the other guys to shoot it MORE or Have those guys shoot it LESS Rocket River
You're asking if we should emulate a 34% 2pt shot? Other than a Ben Simmons 3 pointer, there's not many less efficient shots.
Boogie, House, Nwaba TS% is eye gougingly awful. And I am in hysterics confirming all the off ball and mid range shooting data favors last seasons offense over this season. So much for the eye test. LOL
So you are saying this team now has more players touching the ball and less ISO. Sounds like Silas and Tilman had made up their minds.
These last few years The growing idea was that we needed MORE MID RANGE The Analytics still say that shot SUCKS and it seems to be worse than ever What is Silas's plan on offense Rocket River
The dropoff in pace from Westbrook to Wall is astounding considering how similar they both seem to play. Wall either just does not push pace at elite level like Russ or Silas does not emphasize it like MDA.
Rockets were money from corner 3 last season, another huge strength of Rockets. Areas that Rockets no longer dominate: *Pace *Corner 3 *Volume 3's *FT points *Generating TOV *Iso points *Wins
Thanks for reminding all the CF fans the truth : that the architect of this offense in the last 8 years is not really the evil dork Elvis, but actually James Harden himself and he is still sticking to it.
Well you will have less FT points when the ball is taken out of the hands of the best FT getter in league.
Integrating another poor shooting, ball dominant PG next to Harden is unsurprisingly not going so well offensively.
Not taking shots that you don't shoot well isn't any great revelation. Why do you think that so few midrange shots get attempted in today's game? Here's some examples from this season: Lebron 3.4 fga 35.1% AD 5.2 fga 44.7% Leonard 5.7 fga 35.3% PG13 3.2 fga 40.6% Giannis 2.3 fga 38.1%. If Lebron wants to shoot midrange, then opponents should be more than happy to let him take all he likes.
