I really don't see how that specific task you linked cannot be automated. That specific task can be automated today. It's just the cost for automation for that specific task exceeds the labor costs. Can you say that statement will hold true 50 years from now?
I don't know if you have children. Hypothetically if you had a newborn today, would you recommend him or her in the future towards a hard labor job such as construction or welding knowing the uncertainty behind it?
Did you watch the video or look at the routes for these pipelines? Who will fit the pipe, check the amps, x-ray the weld, in the middle of no where? This isn't an assembly line. If they are too stupid/uninterested to go into STEM, or some other professional training, sure. My cousin is a pipeliner, I don't see it as the low class profession you do. Having a BA and working as a barista would be a nightmare but is a reality for people.
I don't see it as a "low class profession". I see a potential future were robotics and AI will consume many of these jobs. It's just a pragmatic outlook. You have implied "low class proffesion" with that statement more than anything I've stated in this thread.
I think you are just way off. The push for automation in the auto industry where you have federally protected unions and legacy pensions is far different than the real world. Automotive have been rolling back automation. Most famously tesla as he almost flamed out but also GM and VW.
When I had to supervise a major plumbing job for my Townhome HOA here in Austin, I made jokes about how I wasted my time in school, given that the repairs cost most of our discretionary budget. The head plumber said "I'm willing to take you on as trainee if you don't mind working outside in rain, cold, and heat, and getting **** in your face."
Links to timeline of this happening ? Russian hackers taking over the controls , engines blowing up ? All this has happened with a driver in the main seat on auto pilot.
Most of the people doing that do not have the physical strength to continuously do a labor intensive job, and STEM requires smarts not all have. That is the part of the economy, the middle and entitled, that automation will reduce to living on a universal income paycheck.
Next 4 yrs for a fleet of trucks on the road is very doable. That'd be ~4+ times the amount of computing we have now.
You can look up timelines as easily as I can. I can tell you that the trucking companies and retailers that I represent have generally believed 10 years with a couple thinking faster. There will always be security risks. Russians currently could come here as truckers and do massive carnage or have operative hijack trucks easily. FWIW in the industry there is talk of a closed operating system. I do not know enough about that part of the business to comment on how that wil happen. I can comment from a legal/immunity standpoint and the players in the industry already were very successful insulating their businesses going back to Obama’s first term. It is going to happen.
Have done it. My uncle was a master plumber and I was closer to him than my own father. I worked with him every summer until 25 (grad school) and I did everything from homes to prisons and even government agencies. My uncle dropped out of school in the 4th grade but was extremely mechanically inclined..... it isn’t as easy as some think, and at times you sweat and get **** on you.... but it isn’t as hard as some think either. It was a solid living for him but not as profitable as it seems. A lot of slow periods and sometimes in really dangerous areas without security. We were robbed several times with a gun in our face... and that didn’t include people trying to break into the truck. Beats the hell out of most jobs and you can be your own boss. If I hadn’t been saved by Jesuits, I would likely be doing it for a living or would have figured out some scam to supplement my income.
This is the second time you have posted this exact comment. Since you restated it perhaps I took you out of context the first time. Are you far or against the drivers having the electronic surveillance now in place? Are you saying you think the companies will use the new system to see if the drivers stop to take breaks so it is bad or are you saying it is good they are being monitored? If anything, the new system should allow drivers to take more breaks because it is quite obvious the drivers were driving more than they are allowed and were pencil whipping their log books under the old system. I can only assume they would do that to make more money by driving more than allowed they could deliver loads earlier which would allow them to carry another load sooner. More loads would equal more pay. From my business position the only thing I care about is that my deliveries arrive safely and on-time. I had no issues with the old system and I will be fine with the new system once the adjustment period is over and there are more drivers available. From a personal position, I hope the new system ends up benefiting drivers and doesn't adversely effect them.
Interesting, we got to see yet , a robot that can do the tarps,unload the truck, negotiate with dispatcher, pay the Dots and fix flat tire,and order spare part from dealers to replace drivers who get paid in cents increments per mile
Not everyone can be a wielder or truck driver as too many would drive down demand and pay for those fields. Nothing is stopping "that guy" from not going to college and going into a trade school. It can be something as simple as including more technical jobs/technical schools in career days or whatever at the K-12 level. I agree that we have way too many folks going to traditional colleges.
Truck driving is **** right now today not because of robots but because workers are treated like **** in a **** job. This is why the long haul trucking lobby is trying to get Congress to lower the age limit to 18 - they churn like Uber. The answer to this- pay people more $. Capitalism and free markets "work" both ways.
