btw if they really enter the tunnel then there isn't enough time. There may be an extension beyond 31 October even with an agreement. But a small one. But of course with Boris Johnson you never know. One day he says black the other day he says white. He may just keep May's WA, give it another name and try to pass it for something new.
The EU and UK failed to reach a deal in 48 hours. What a shocker! We now have the details. Boris Johnson's new plan, is an altered EU's original only NI backstop. But it makes the UK worse than May's deal by 2% of the GDP. Bravo Boris keep up the hard work. Now that the Brextension is all but certain I hope to god that they won't make it until June.
It appears that they may have a deal by the end of today. From Bloomberg (and also virtually every other news source): EU, U.K. Negotiators Said to Be Closing in on Draft Brexit Deal U.K. and European Union negotiators in Brussels are closing in on a draft Brexit deal with optimism there will be a breakthrough before the end of the day Tuesday, two EU officials said. Any draft legal text will hinge on whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson believes he has the support of the U.K. Parliament, with the backing of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party crucial. Officials cautioned talks haven’t finished yet and there’s work still to do. The pound surged after Bloomberg’s initial reports, climbing as much as 1.5% to $1.28, the highest level in nearly five months. While there’s some finalizing to do, there are clear indications that negotiators will present a legal text on Wednesday morning for EU governments to scrutinize, an official said. That would only be possible if there’s a green light from Johnson, a separate official said. It is still too soon for anyone to start holding their breath on this. But this looks like everyone is truly working on a deal now.
So far 1) NI only backstop with checks over the Irish Sea 2) NI "de jure" in UK's customs in essence in EU's 3) No Stormont Veto but 100% support of both Sinn Fein and DUP to leave the backstop UK still wants time limited "We will take it to the last minute and the EU will panic and make consessions to avoid no deal" => Boris Johnson accepted what May said "no British PM would ever accept" LMAO Anyway the DUP and some of the ERG will vote against. Johnson needs every single Torry apostate and about 10-15 Labour MPs.
Eu side : " The deal is done. And all depends on London giving the green light. All that stands in the way leaders signing off on Thursday are the DUP’s objections.” The UK-DUP negotiations is how many millions if not billions will be needed to bribe them to vote for it. Scotland is furious The funny thing is even with the DUP Johnson can't pass the deal if he can't convince the Tories he threw out. So far at least 5 have said "No thanx".
Labour is planning to vote for an amendment for a referendum attached to any deal Johnson breaks back. I think at that point even with the best intentions and patience it is time for the EU to tell them to take a hike. After all this delaying, U-turning , posturing, lying we still have to go through another british referendum? Or even worse if they can't even pass the deal through Westminster.
Good posts. According to EU Council (the heads of the 28 countries) President Donald Tusk, the deal is done. He is expressing some uncertainty as to whether he believes that the UK Parliament will support it. But what that seems to imply is that he believes that the EU will support it. Donald Tusk says deal is ready, but there are 'certain doubts on the British side' Donald Tusk has said a deal is ready, but cautioned there are "certain doubts on the British side". The President of the European Council said that while yesterday evening he "was ready to bet that it’s all set and agreed, today there are certain doubts on the British side". The UK side really is kind of tricky. So now we wait to see what the reaction will be from the UK Parliament, especially those Tories recently turfed out the party, and also the members of the DUP.
We already know that Grieves, Stewart, Gauke and the ones who already joined the Lib Dems refuse. Only Hammond's and Rudd's clique can be convinced. However Johnson will also be required to remove the whip and throw out of the party also those from the ERG who refuse to vote for it. And there are a few madmen over there, I even hate them to call them Spartans because this is an insult to my heritage. The fact is : This NI only backstop has been the initial offer from the EU 3 years ago as soon as they put forward their own red lines. It can't get better than that. It is the bottomline and the only way forward as long as the UK wants to leave the EU's customs. You either accept it or there is no deal. There will be no unicorns offered. Labour is already pressuring their Leaver MPs to downvote it. If it doesn't pass then I say let the UK taste a no deal Brexit and war within their borders in NI. Patience has its limits.
Yep. That needs to be the choice. Either approve the deal, or leave with no deal. They have thrashed this dead horse into a bloody spot on the pavement already. It is time to end this thing.
Even if they approve it but with a referendum attached it will solve nothing. What will the other choices be? Remain? There are many people who want to leave but with a softer Brexit than Johnson's. Corbyn for example. Will the EU have to negotiate with Corbyn too so he can also reach a soft Brexit deal and put it in the referendum? We have all been wasting our time because the UK doesn't want to deal with reality and they want to daydream of unicorns. We have all been wasting our time because the UK doesn't give a damn about their own soil, Northern Ireland. They only care about England England and England. Well..since they don't care about it, they will have to leave Northern Ireland behind and go on their way. The consequences are hard to predict however In my opinion leaving Northern Ireland behind will not bring Irish reunification at least as fast as no deal Brexit. But of course there is still a huge risk. They left the EU that ensured that everyone in Ireland had equal rights and priviledges and there was peace and they will have to live with the consequences of their decisions from now on.
French President Macron also says a deal is done and the text is being finalized to be signed at the EU Summit tomorrow: Brexit in sight as Macron says deal text being finalised to be signed off tomorrow The influential EU leaders said negotiating teams are on the brink of finalising a deal based on Boris Johnson’s plans for Northern Ireland. Speaking in France, they shared the positive message with talks between UK and EU officials expected to run into the early hours in order to have a draft legal text ready for leaders tomorrow. Mr Macron told reporters: “I hope, I think that a deal is just being finalised and we’re going to be able to work on that tomorrow.” Again, the UK Parliament right now is like "Mikey" from the old Life cereal commercials here in the US. They hate everything. So we will just have to wait and see....
The UK Parliament has never supported a second referendum before, despite voting on it several times, and the votes have never been terribly close. I do not believe such a vote will pass here. To be fair, the vote on this deal might not pass, either.
What is the language in the Benn legislation again? PM Johnson is required to ask for an extension - unless a deal is agreed to? Well, it looks like a deal is getting ready to be agreed to, at least between the the UK Prime Minister and the EU Council.
I also don't think so BUT there are many MPs who rightfully so, think that there is not enough time to gather enough information and analyse this deal properly before they cast their vote that will determine the future of their country. May's deal went though several committees and several experts were called in parliament to give their testimony ,judicially and economically. But they are now asked to vote on it on Saturday after only 5 hours. At most if the content is leaked they will have 2 days to read it. Who knows if they EU has sneaked some potentialy dangerous language in there? Frost and the other new government UK negotiators aren't the old guard who had long year experience and achievements in writing international treaties, most of them are cronies and quite incompetent. An amendment for a referendum can alleviate these dangers because the new deal text would be under intense scrutiny. BUT I say it's their fault. Who is in the hurry to make a decision most of all? The UK. Who wasted all the time doing nothing much? The UK We have already made enough consessions to them. As long as the EU side is happy with the text I am in favour in putting the pressure on the other side. Enough is enough. No the Benn amendment speaks about a deal. It means it first has to be brought to Westminster and pass through it. I am not sure if even the Lords will have to ratify it after- probably. Johnson and the EU have agreed on a draft. WIthout agreement from the UK parliament and the EU 27 governments it is just a piece of paper. The EU 27 have an open line with their negotiators and are informed on the new content. Westminster is not except from the DUP and very few select cabinet members. Not even the Tories themselves know what is in there right now.
"Johnson has also made a major concession to secure a free-trade agreement with the EU. The prime minister had previously signalled he wanted to abandon a pledge to align to EU standards on the environment, workers’ rights and tax, fuelling Brussels’ fears of a regulatory race to the bottom and the creation of “Singapore on the Thames”. Barnier told EU ambassadors he now had secured a basis for fair competition, as Johnson had agreed that the quid pro quo for any free-trade agreement would be signing up to the EU’s “level-playing field” provisions, meaning a promise not to ditch EU standards. EU negotiators have long said these promises are vital, because of the UK’s economic weight and geographical proximity." Very Interesting. So what did Johnson actually achieved? If these come in writing then the UK will have trouble in a trade deal with the US because of the food loby. And tax as well? No more Singapore on Thames?
No. Regulatory alignment on environment and animal welfare -> can't change EU standards on pesticides -> Can't allign with USA standards on food -> American Food Loby VETO on any trade deal. They have said as much already. Americans want to be able to sell their food in the UK, they won't be able to if the UK retains EU standards.
