[The Athletic] Rockets draft options: Who to take at No 2 - best fits and trade possibilities.

With just under two weeks to go until the NBA Draft, the Houston Rockets have some important internal decisions to make. The franchise has already done a copious amount of work on the incoming class but the draft, as always, has a domino effect. If the Detroit Pistons select Cade Cunningham with the first-overall pick, where does that leave the Rockets? Would they pick Jalen Green? Evan Mobley? Perhaps even Jalen Suggs?

Should the franchise be looking for players who fit the current regime better, or does a rebuilding team have more important things to worry about? What about the 23rd and 24th picks? Are the Rockets prepared to draft three players to add to the roster?

To answer these and many more questions, The Athletic sat resident draft expert Sam Vecenie and Rockets beat writer Kelly Iko down for a wide-ranging discussion:

Kelly Iko: What’s up, Sam? We’re finally in July, which means draft talk is heating up like crazy. Before we dive into the nitty-gritty, I want to get a sense of where you stand right now at the top.

One of the biggest questions circulating around draft talk is the question of just what the heck Houston is going to do at two. Where are you leaning in terms of the better player available (and fit to some degree): Jalen Green or Evan Mobley? Any puncher’s chance for Jalen Suggs or Scottie Barnes?

Sam Vecenie: Hi Kelly! Great to hear from you! The Rockets are in such an interesting position heading into draft night and I’m fascinated to see what they do.

Having said that, I’d be stunned if Houston stayed at No. 2 and the pick was anyone other than Green, Mobley or Suggs. The Rockets are in such a nascent stage of their rebuild that they absolutely need to take shots on as many all-star shot-creators as possible. To answer your question, I do think Suggs is still at least in the mix there. Scottie Barnes would completely blow my mind at No. 2. Suggs would not. Then again, I also have Suggs at No. 2 ahead of Green and Mobley, so I get the impression I’m a touch out on an island with Suggs. But if you’re going to look at Jalen Green, you absolutely need to take the time to contrast him with Suggs, given the similar player archetype. I don’t think any determination has been made on that at this stage in time for the Rockets.

The Suggs/Green vs. Mobley conversation is such a fascinating one if you’re Houston. You absolutely take the guy that you think is best-suited to become a long-term all-star. But the key is taking the guy who has the best chance to become an all-star in the environment you’ll be laying out for them. Often, the last clause there is missed.

I can discuss the fits of each prospect in that regard momentarily, but before we dive too deep into that rabbit hole, does that make sense?

Iko: Yeah, that makes perfect sense. The way I see it, as much as we pore over these individual players and their skill sets, the draft is only one part of the equation. We never talk much about the environments these young athletes are stepping into. You are, as always, a product of your environment, so how these guys eventually turn out is as much on the organization as it is themselves.

Vecenie: Exactly right. From a roster perspective, there just isn’t enough to consider here that could be on the team long-term in regard to fit. Kevin Porter Jr. looks like a really interesting piece, but I don’t know how trustworthy the Rockets should consider him. Christian Wood is a terrific center offensively, but he has two years until restricted free agency. Jae’Sean Tate and Kenyon Martin Jr. are nice, but they’re not needle movers. I don’t think the Rockets should be worried about “filling holes” on the roster. They should be worried about finding the best guy to build around.

And in that vein, developmental trajectory and the way these players are molded over the early stages of their career plays a critical role in how they transform into the players they will eventually become. It’s worth discussing each of the players in that context. Let’s start with Mobley.

Right now, the Rockets have a veteran guard in John Wall, who I think did a pretty underrated job in a leadership role on a bad team in 2021. He always seemed pretty accountable. Stephen Silas spoke at length about Wall after a game in April, talking about how he gave everything he had to the Rockets, that he was an extension of the coaching staff on the floor and was always the first person to speak up to the team. I don’t think it’s a certainty that Wall is on the team to start the year, but I think he’d be an awesome guy to have around for any of these young players.

Particularly, though, I think he’d be almost essential to have around if the team decides to take Mobley. We saw this season how important having a smart, veteran guard like Chris Paul around was to Deandre Ayton’s development. Mobley would really be helped, in my view, by having Wall around to lead him around, and show him how to set screens, how to operate in dribble hand-offs, how to play with angles, and teach him all of the little intricacies only a basketball savant like Wall — and don’t mistake it, Wall is an absolute basketball genius according to people that have been around him in the NBA — knows.

If the Rockets and Wall decide that they think a split is the best way of action forward, I don’t think Mobley particularly makes sense for the Rockets given how messy the rest of the roster is right now. It will probably take some time to figure things out in that case. I’d worry he’d get a bit lost in the shuffle for the first year of his career. It’s not that he’d have no chance to be successful — Mobley is such a talent I expect he’ll work it out long-term. But it might take longer, and it’s worth noting it’s generally easier to find centers on the market than perimeter players. The time value of assets is real in the NBA. Only the true difference-makers at the center position — and guys who are difference makers at the specific moment in time — tend to retain future value in trades or potential movement. Any type of slow development curve leads to questions — ask the Warriors with James Wiseman. The Rockets are obviously drafting this player to be their own future centerpiece, but you just never know what opportunities are going to arise in the future as you try to build your roster.

Iko: I certainly get the appeal of Mobley in a Rockets uniform given everything you just said. Another point to consider is Wood’s health. Is he a 70-plus-game player? If last season is anything to go by, his ankles need a lot of protection and Mobley would provide some much-needed insurance.

The Wall angle is really interesting because there’s a line of reasoning you could draw connecting him to each of the top guys. But here’s what I want to pick your brain on; are some of Wall’s good qualities beneficial to someone like, say, Green, if Houston were to take him? I’ve written a good deal about the young man and he seems stellar from an intangible point of view. The leadership at that age, the will to improve and the attention to detail are all excellent qualities in a potential cornerstone. But with two weeks to the draft, what do you like about Green and his fit in Houston?

 

Vecenie: I absolutely think you bring up a good point with Wall being beneficial to any of these players. In Green’s case, I think Wall would help a lot in regard to reading help defenders, manipulating defenses and learning where he needs to put the ball as a passer. “If the weak side defender crashes from the corner, you get to this spot and make this pass. If the opposing team blitzes you out of a ball screen, this is how you retreat with an escape dribble and open up space in the middle of the floor before hitting your safety valve.” Green isn’t awesome at this stuff yet. It’s a real growth area for him. Having veterans like that around is vital to long-term success in the NBA, and makes the transition so much smoother for rookies. There aren’t many guys in the NBA better than John Wall at teaching young players about help defense.

More than anything else with Green, I like that he can get a bucket and has really good size as a wing. I genuinely think Green can be a top-five scorer in the NBA if things go right with his development. He has that kind of game and athletic explosiveness. Not many players in the entire league have his level of twitchy athleticism mixed with the ability to go up with force. He’s not as strong as, say, Anthony Edwards, but he’s so explosive that he does go up toward the rim with real power. On top of that, he has real skills as a ballhandler at 6-foot-6. He will keep improving his craft and tighten things up as a ballhandler over the next few years, but because he has that level of twitchiness and fluidity already, Green should be a monster once that comes along offensively. On top of that, he’s starting at a pretty solid base in regard to shooting. Obviously given the body control, balance, and explosiveness, he can create a shot whenever he wants. He’s a legitimately special athlete. But the key is finishing the job, and that’s something you can improve. Given his professional mindset and the place he’s starting from, I’d bet he’s a high-level scorer pretty easily.

Defensively, there will be warts early on. Passing-wise, he’ll need to keep progressing through his reads and learning. But if you want to build around a guy who could be an All-NBA caliber scorer — and I think there is a real case for doing that in today’s NBA given how important shot creation is — it’s hard to do better than Green.

Iko: Every year there’s chatter around this time about teams trying to move up or down. For all the talk of who the Rockets will take with the No. 2 pick, there’s also the notion of trading the pick outright, whether it be some Godfather deal to get No. 1 or moving down in the top ten to get more cracks at this year’s crop. Is this a draft where the Rockets absolutely have to take someone at two? Could you see them going in an entirely different direction?

Vecenie: Given the team’s current asset situation, I only see two options: taking someone at No. 2, or moving up to No. 1 to get Cade Cunningham. And I do think the Rockets will legitimately make an effort to move up to No. 1. They have a lot of future picks from the Harden deal. They have a future Detroit pick from last year’s draft-day trade. If they offered three future firsts plus No. 2, it’s at least a compelling offer if you don’t have quite as high of a grade on Cade Cunningham as I do. If I was Detroit, I would simply take Cunningham because I think he’s a future top-10 player in the NBA. This isn’t the NFL Draft. In the NBA, you always take quality over quantity. But if they’re not as enthused about Cunningham — or place a smaller difference between the value of No. 1 and No. 2 than I do — I think the Rockets are realistically the only team that can get into the mix.

But assuming they aren’t able to trade up to No. 1 — and I think that’s a safer assumption than not right now — I think they need to take someone at No. 2. As mentioned above, this roster just doesn’t have anything resembling an elite asset. Kevin Porter Jr. has a lot of talent, but there is a reason the team was able to acquire him for a fake second-round pick. Tate is solid, but I’m skeptical he’d return anything beyond a late first-round pick in a trade. Wood would probably return real value, but we’ve seen how the bottom can fall out of the market for big men, even ones as talented as Wood. Eric Gordon and Wall have real contractual constraints that hold back their value. Again, the draft is about quality over quantity. The Rockets need someone on this roster that they can genuinely start building around. Right now, I don’t think they have that guy.

Iko: Let’s say Houston takes Green at No. 2. They also have two other picks in the first round to deal with, 23 and 24. Would they then look at bringing in wings and big man depth, having already selected a guard — or does fit not matter here either? Your latest mock had them taking Trey Murphy and Tre Mann, I believe. Are you still sold on both or are there new entrants?

Vecenie: If I was the Rockets, I’d simply be looking at bringing in the best players available. That low in the draft, with where the Rockets are in their development and the fact that they don’t have a crazy amount of depth on the roster set in stone, there are going to be minutes to go around, at least off the bench, just about everywhere.

In terms of those two specific prospects, I would not mock them there for different reasons. Murphy, I think, has risen up the board a bit beyond that spot. I see his range starting at around No. 14 and ending at around No. 23. I’d be surprised if he got past the Rockets because he’s just such a perfect player for a team to use within its rotation as it builds out its roster. His shooting and defense combination is just so high. But I don’t think he ends up getting there. I would bet he’s off the board in the top-20.

Mann is a guy I have not gotten a ton of excitement about through the pre-draft process from teams. Assuredly, teams are interested, and I think he’s likely to go somewhere in the No. 22 to 40 range. But this would be near the top end of his range. I’ve heard a bit more enthusiasm for prospects like Cam Thomas and Joshua Primo, more so than Mann at this point as we are 10 days out from the draft. And it only takes one team.

The Rockets should simply look at what falls their way and take the guys with the most upside. Someone is going to slide on draft night. Maybe that’s Ziaire Williams because teams can’t figure out how to reconcile his lack of production with his talent. Maybe that’s Keon Johnson, who is all over the board for NBA teams. Maybe it’s Kai Jones because big men tend to fall on draft night. Maybe it’s Sharife Cooper who gets past the Knicks, or Jalen Johnson because teams can’t make heads or tails what to think of him off the court. My take is to select the upside player and go from there.

Iko: Those are all good options — Murphy, especially, for his ability to plug and play right now. The good thing about picking in the 20s is the prospect of guys potentially sliding and it’s a decent enough class to get some intrigue towards the end of the round.

But what about potentially trading one of these picks? There was a report last week about a theoretical deal of Eric Gordon plus one of those selections for 13. Is this a draft to move up or even out if you’re Houston with Nos. 23 and 24?

Vecenie: I’m a bit skeptical that the Rockets would get legitimate value like that for Gordon, given that he turns 33 on Christmas and has played 63 games in the past two years. He still has two guaranteed years left on his contract at a pretty hefty number near $38 million. Weird things happen in the NBA, though.

If they wanted to move Gordon, maybe Houston could take back an additional vet at a similar price for a single season, as opposed to just seeing someone take Gordon into cap space or a trade exception. For instance, maybe Dallas sees Gordon as a better fit than Josh Richardson because he’s more of a secondary creator with size who could play next to Luka Doncic, and would be willing to take Gordon and No. 24 for Richardson and Tyrell Terry, the No. 31 pick in last year’s draft who had a bit of a tough rookie season? That would satisfy an objective of getting an interesting young player still (even if I don’t think Terry’s value is quite equivalent to the No. 24 pick), while also offloading a year of Gordon’s deal and creating future financial flexibility? Again, though, such a move would require Dallas to be particularly interested in Gordon.

I think it’s going to be tough for Houston to package both of those picks to move up, if only because four of the six picks ahead of their spot are owned by Oklahoma City and New York. That reduces the potential marketplace. I’m skeptical Washington would want 23 and 24 for 15, and I don’t think the Warriors would be interested in such a deal at 14, either. There is a case to move out of the draft if certain international players decide to pull out of it, and thus reduce stash options. Maybe move 24 for a future first-rounder from someone if a team is in love with a particular prospect still available at No. 24? Depending on who is on the board, such a move could make some sense.