Super Bowl XLVI - New York Giants vs. New England Patriots

2 days ago it was the Dolphins or Skins that you were betting on. Not sure what tweets you are now getting Raiders and Jets from, but i wouldn't bet on the Raiders if i were you - they just gave up 2 1st rounders for Carson Palmer a few months ago.

also, seriously curious on your opinion... why do you think the jets giving up on sanchez for peyton is a sensible move for them, yet you think us giving up schaub for him is not? what is different? don't get me wrong, i think schaub is better than sanchez, and i am also the one that originally said i think the jets is his likely destination (mainly because them and almost all other franchises are more aggressive than us), but how is it any different? sanchez is a 4th year qb who has taken his team to playoffs and 2 conference championships. matt schaub has never even played in a playoff game.

 

Yeah, I know it's difficult to quantify because it always goes back to the eye of the beholder. To me, though, this game was one of unforced errors. Brady gave the Giants a safety (after having quite a while to throw) by carelessly throwing it to nowhere, as opposed to at someone's feet. The Pats' defense negated a turnover by having 12 men on the field (and not even realizing it). Brady missed on two big throws to Welker/Branch in the final five minutes. Belichick wasted a precious timeout on a needless challenge.

On the other side, the Giants were fortunate not to lose a single turnover despite putting it on the ground three times. The defensive front didn't get nearly as much pressure as it should have. A careless holding penalty on the NY offensive line crushed what should've been a statement drive (up 9-3 late second quarter). They had to settle for field goals twice in the red zone against arguably the worst defense in football. The playcalling was boring and uninspired, including two punts from around the NE 40 (again, consider the defense).

I know you can find a few mistakes in any game, no matter how great. But there seemed to be an excessive amount of mental, unforced errors last night on both sides. That's why I didn't see it as a matchup of deserving teams.

 

You're right on Oakland - I seriously doubt the Raiders go after him. I was just listing them as one of those teams that's a QB away (because of how solid they are in other spots). As far as the Jets, it's hard to say. There's a LOT of talk that they're interested and would make a run. And it would be a headline move, so to speak, which they love. But at the end of the day, I just can't see them pulling the plug on Sanchez this soon. I'll have to see it to believe it. My bet is still on Miami - makes most sense for everyone involved. And if the Dolphins get Manning, and he returns to health... I think they're the AFC East winner. That's a much better roster than people think.

Schaub's last four years include QB ratings of 92.7, 98.6, 92.0 and 96.8. Sanchez hasn't even broken 80 in any season (63, 75, 78). His production is replacement-level, to me. On the whole, there's not a ton for the Jets to lose on the field. If it turns out Manning doesn't have much left in the tank, you can usually find a Kyle Orton-type every year to give you comparable production to what Sanchez has the past two years. Now, the Jets would certainly have a lot of sunk costs with Sanchez' big contract and all the marketing efforts. But on the field, I don't see there being a lot to lose.

For the Texans, however... there's a sizable gap between Schaub and Yates/Leinart, or an Orton-type that's available off waivers. If Manning doesn't work out, there's a downside risk in losing Schaub that isn't nearly as big if you're losing Mark Sanchez or Matt Moore. Bottom line: The Texans, with a healthy Schaub, are a Super Bowl contender (to me). The Jets, with Sanchez, are not. That's what makes it more complex.

 

Seriously. How is this overlooked? I realize it hit Welker in the hands, but look at the position he had to put himself in to get his hands there.

Welker is a short, not overly athletic wide receiver. His skillset is going across the middle and catching good clean passes with no fear of getting hit. He's not some vertical threat, he's not a leaping WR, etc. The way he had to spin and try to catch that ball is something he almost never does. I'm not surprised at all that he dropped it.

 

if peyton is awful, they've given up a qb who has taken them to the afc championship game an unprecedented twice in his first three years in the nfl, for a waiver wire replacement qb.

trade schaub, sign peyton, sign vincent young to back him up. i like schaub. he isn't peyton manning. if manning is healthy, we win superbowl(s). it's as simple as that. this city has 2 major sports championships. the moment needs to be seized while we are this good, and every possible step needs to be taken to win us a super bowl while we can. this would be the first team in this city's history that anybody would actually expect to win it all going in to the season. i don't want to hope and assume that matt schaub can navigate through peyton, brady, and roethlisberger in the afc, then whoever of rodgers, brees, eli, in the nfc. i understand that this is oversimplifying things, but the schaub's of the world don't beat the brees' and rodgers' of the world in the super bowl.

if peyton somehow completely flames out, worry about it when the time comes. that doesn't end all hope. we simply took a shot, got compensated probably a 1st rounder, and look for a new qb. we aren't doomed and forced to start dreck at qb for even the rest of 2012 just because peyton didn't work out.

 

because it's easier for the media to blame welker than the golden boy tom brady.

brady should have thrown that ball in front of welker instead of behind him.



there was space. no db was in position to make a play on the ball.

 

any pass that touches a wr's hands is deemed an easy catch that should have been made by the media and announcers.

much like how any missed shot anywhere near the basket despite 5 defenders attempting to block it, a reverse under the basket with eyes closed, whatever, will always result in bill worrell screaming "OH MY GOD HE MISSED A LAYUP!! ARE YOU KIDDING ME???"

 

That's where we have to agree to disagree. I don't consider team wins nearly as heavily as you do when evaluating a QB's worth. Not my method is clearly superior - but we have different criteria.

I think if Schaub is healthy, the Texans win the AFC. Too much uncertainty and wildly contrasting styles in NFC to say much as far as Super Bowl until you get there. But I think the Schaub-led Texans are the AFC favorites. They are this good already. I agree that a healthy Manning could make them even better... but to me, it's not a risk I'm comfortable with unless Peyton is willing to wait on signing until he can make all the throws.

Having to rely on a combination of Matt Leinart, T.J. Yates and Jake Delhomme is what doomed us in 2011, despite a superb team at basically every other position on the field. I'm not confident that it's easy to fix or find someone at near Schaub's level.

 

Greatest WR in the NFL!

 

If Schaub threw that ball and Andre dropped it, many on here would be slamming Schaub for his inaccuracy.

 

They'd be right, of course. Still shots are misleading because they don't show the full range of how Welker had to contort his body. Brady has to make that throw, just like he had to lead Branch on the first throw of the final drive. Failed on both.

 

no, i'm not disagreeing with you there. i agree with you. and i agree that schaub is better than sanchez. but i also don't think that giving up a high rookie draft pick who has taken them to afc championship twice in his first three years is something that's risk-free and easy to dismiss. i think that the jets swapping sanchez for manning, and us swapping schaub for manning are pretty damn analogous situations.

 

Giants celebrating on the plane ride home

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/dyNPeLJBo7Y" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

Well, it's easy to dismiss on the field because the Kyle Orton types that are usually available are every bit as good as Sanchez. Now, there are other risks such as money, marketing, etc. that complicate things (and ultimately, this is why I don't think Jets go for Manning). But the status quo that the Texans would be giving up is a lot more promising than the status quo for the Jets. That's why it's less of a risk for New York.

 

I swear I've seen Jacoby Jones make this catch before.

 

I agree, it was a bad throw. My point was that because Brady is Brady, the blame for that drop is falling mostly on Welker. If that had been the Texans, the blame would fall on Schaub for making a bad throw into zero coverage that forced Welker to try to completely change where his body was going, spin around and catch a ball as he fell to the ground.

Brady should be embarrassed that his wife made that comment.

 

He should've made that catch.

I would've understood if the ball popped out when he hit the ground or something.

But to flub it in mid-air was Welker's doing. It was catchable in the air. But the ground might have had something else to say about it.

 

I bet you Welker will come crying to Brady's doorstep before Brady feels it was a bad throw.

"If the ball hits your hands then you can catch it" - some NFL coach/guy

 

even on the field i disagree with. bottom line, you are throwing in the towel on a qb who you thought highly enough of to draft high in the first round, even after he took you to the afc championship twice in his first three years. that's a bold move, any way you slice it. sanchez has youth, playoff success, and health that you are giving up. with matt schaub, you are giving up, literally, ( and i'm not trying to devalue the importance of this), a good QBR. giving up either qb would require balls and aggressiveness, and both risks make sense, because you are doing so to get peyton manning.

as far as the status quo, a lot changes from year to year in the nfl. nobody had the jets missing the playoffs this year, after being in the afc championship the previous 2. it certainly wasn't all on sanchez. i don't expect it to happen, but the texans can just as easily experience a similar shock to the system next year.

 

wewt...bet on giants +3 was goood