USO is ok for short term trades, but may not be the right vehicle for going long due to current contango and negative yield roll. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/081116/uso-good-way-invest-oil-uso.asp
Exactly, this is very similar to a lot of etp/etf/etn and a good call out - basically watch it and move it, don't invest and forget. Right now I'm basically using USO to move contracts and was noticing some interesting volume for Friday on options. I don't expect to keep any long enough to exercise/will even bother to exercise - I'll just move them for gains.
10 years back i made a boatload of money shorting UNG. You are right...the best way to play these is to be in and out. Eventually they all flame out.
soooooooooooooo.....i didn't read too much into the USO ETF before I bought it. Had I known what i know now, I wouldn't do it again. And honestly, I bought it thinking the OPEC+ deal would spike it 50 cents to a dollar...instead it dropped a dollar+ over the last week. So ya, i am losing right now...hopefully it rebounds so I can get the hell out. I can't explain it well but something about oil future prices and contango make it a less than describable option to hold for long term. My recommendation is to buy into an oil company with the best balance sheet. If i had to do it again, I would buy MRO (marathon oil) instead.
Damn, very nice play! I've been trying to catch trends/volumes/news to time it better/less risk but tend to play careful with these and really look for easy value lately. I just feel bad for newer investors who jump into stuff like this and aren't aware what they're actually trading/holding, especially on ETNs that might be following something completely different/not tied to an easy trend ... Sure if you're a regular trader and know what you're doing they can be amazing, but I've seen some just throw in absurd amounts and not flip it. Absolutely cannot do this unless you are printing money and don't have a worry about risks.
Haha, so on this depending on short duration or play and amount, we basically would see it as a true lotto win. It could be similar to that chart posted a page back/similar ones where people go from 5k to 500k-million+. At minimum I guarantee thousands even if conservative on the amount.
40k gain in less than 2 months. I learned about contango and how bad these etfs can be after originally being long ung and taking a $8,000 loss. I have shorted other natty gas spikes this way as well. The 2018/19 spike was pretty easy money too... Also had some luck shorting VXX in 2018.
Right, this is why on USO I'm only playing options, I do expect a very smallish play and it'll cover my bigger plays in case they don't pan out, but I'll be moving these pretty quick. I mean if lucky and I hit it right it'll be a nice, but I definitely plan on watching options for stuff like this. I've been trying to watch for option plays that don't make the most sense, and would be too silly to be new money volume. Like my Boeing example, there was no way it was going to fall below 145/6 on Friday. Someone placed absurd OTM options amounts ahead of the news Thursday. Like even with the good but then bad pr, it just caused BA to stay +.
Damn man, very nice plays! It's always great to pull this off. I don't know wth I was doing, I basically was in prevent losses mode for 2020 on other investments and completely fell off going into etn/etf plays with the crash coming (like probably the dumbest play I missed that was clear as day coming). I don't know wth I was thinking... Like if I just followed plan through further... Haha. Oh well moving on..., I'm sure we all have the unlimited amounts of would've/could've etc. Just have to learn and move on.
If investing in this stuff (oil ETF's), research contango and backwardation as well as partnerships, in general. Also keep an eye on K-1 forms coming in the mail because your taxes could be affected, as well, since you're basically investing in a partnership. If you're doing it on your own, it can get messy. If you have someone else doing your taxes, let them handle it, I guess. Same is true for investing in MLP's. Some insight into the contango and USO : https://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/biggest-oil-etf-shakes-structure?nopaging=1
This could be interesting.... I just saw the prices. Long term it'll be great but in the meantime I'm going to try and see it's something to follow this down with options/margin.. That is if it's reasonable/money can be made. I'm also thinking once earnings hit in other sectors and job market... Could be another dip coming. Unless fed prints more money. I'm also interested in GILD if this SEC claim and realization finally in media/stock market that there wasn't a control group... Could be interesting if there's a reversal tomorrow that trickles down. I'm going to play a bit safe just because of how insane this has been, and might miss opening action, but this is becoming much harder in some spots... At least what I'm thinking atm.
The drug they're talking about here is hydroxychloroquine, which already exists, of course... and in large quantity since it's used in the treatment of malaria, lupus, and RA. It'll be interesting to see if this moves the needle. Novartis, U.S. drug regulator agree to malaria drug trial against COVID-19 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ria-drug-trial-against-covid-19-idUSKBN2220DW
I must've missed it, but what SEC claim? The media has pretty much been reporting there wasn't a control group for the past couple of days. As a matter of fact, in the original Stat report, it was mentioned there was no control group and Gilead themselves played down the findings either the same day or the next day, I believe.
I don't know how much this will play a role, but it might bring the whole control group situation back to the front, and might cause a pullback but I'm not sure if this will gain traction - I know I read it on a different site today - so I was surprised I didn't see this one earlier https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/18/us/s...t-coronavirus-drug-leak-remdesivir/index.html I don't think there will be much probably on SEC, but more on it bringing up lack of experiment, I mean it was basically reason /other than government opening country soon for surge. At least I think it played a role. Like I feel investors/talking heads basically downplayed the Stat portion on control group. So def agree with you on Gilead not being in wrong at least from reading it.
Nice, I just saw this a little earlier and am going to watch this too, this is honestly getting crazy. I mean I knew about the trials in some spots trying this but didn't think this was coming under them
Yeah, I hadn't heard about the congressman calling for an investigation. Thanks. The control group information was repeatedly broadcast on CNBC the next day, and they interviewed at least 2 or 3 people that tried to hammer that home and that the tests weren't done on people on ventilators (I thought I heard one say none of the drug administrations was on those type of patients, but I could be mistaken).
Of course, happy to help, thanks for all your insight on everything too. Yeah, it was definitely handled correctly I think on their part, I just got the impression people didn't read the news/listen fully because the report was out but I didn't think it followed the quick follow the news trend (at least didn't seem like it until it was circulated a lot on various outlets), I mean I could be wrong but there seemed to be a lag vs some of this other follow the news stuff we've seen lately. I think Gilead will be fine from SEC but it'll be interesting, just with how fast news is causing fast shifts in health/bio stocks.
Oh yeah, I agree with that. Most of these trades pop on the news... whatever it is. Whether or not it comes down remains to be seen. When you think about it, most of biotech is like that. All these drug companies that are barely even in Phase I or earlier are popping on news no matter what it is. Even with Gilead, if they were to come out with a drug, they won't be able to ramp up large doses of the drug until near the end of the year. I think they've even said they wouldn't be trying to make a killing on it in terms of profits.
