Sources: Expect the NBA back playing by mid/late June with 10 reg season games before POs

If the league opens will ALL the players return? I’m sure the player’s association will be in full force, as it should. Some players that have the means to stay at home will because they can. Their families have more value than a game or a trophy to them. Yes, it’s their jobs but it’s also their life. Most Millionaires can do what they want.

Hold your kids/wife or a chance at a trophy with an asterisk?

This will be interesting to watch on many levels.

 

Germany also has the lowest density in their cities other than Berlin or parts of Hamburg, Munich.

They have 32 man squads, double the players on NBA teams. 3 or 4 guys per team have contracted the virus. (already happened to Cologne and Gladbach)
They can still field 2 different lineups.

They have tracked clusters successfully and have the death rate mostly under control.

You can't say that about the US with a straight face.

The only place I see fit would be Vegas, no Texan city, no Florida.

Let's not ignore why the National leagues are resuming playing again, it is not because of health and security, it's money related.

If the coach or coaching staff has it, do you continue? That would be a key position.

 

What sounds good on paper doesn’t always play out the same way in the real world. People have a fear of sickness and death. If a teammate tests positive, then every player on that team, and every player in the league will have to make a decision about continuing play.

I really hope they can figure something out that works. I just have doubts they can pull it off.

 

Average daily testing has roughly doubled in the last two weeks. Fauci (not Trump) says we should have the needed tests by the end of May or beginning of June. The federal government is clearly prioritiziing sports, and commissioners are working directly with them to let them know what is needed to resume. It's not done until it's done, but I don't see a reason to assume the worst at this point.

When have you ever seen a sourced report from a sports commissioner's office with an on-the-record source? That almost never happens. By sourced report, I mean something that isn't officially announced yet. That's just how the game is played. Nobody puts their name on anything until it's official, because circumstances can change (and that's especially the case with this virus).

As I see it, the sourced intel is pretty strong evidence, because it's discussing the exact subject in question (athletes in a bubble scenario). What you're throwing out is supposition.

Why not go by Germany's actual safety plan for sports, which doesn't require full team quarantines? The difference in policy is based on the availability and confirmation of regular testing. For society at large, it's not realistic to have a plan requiring multiple tests per week for each person. And even if there somehow were that many tests, it'd be virtually impossible to track whether each person was actually taking them and what the results were. For one sports team in a quarantined environment, you can do those things. There's also a lower risk profile, at least in the rumored NBA bubble scenarios, because the players aren't going out into the broader population. Even if the worst-case scenario happens and there is an outbreak, there's an obvious way to contain it — which isn't the case if an asymptomatic member of the general public goes to the grocery store.

 

If your same ratio holds, 3 or 4 out of 32 players is equivalent to 1 or 2 out of a 12-man NBA roster. NBA teams will still be able to field lineups. And I'm not sure why America's overall density matters, since we're talking about bubble scenarios where the teams would be tested and quarantined going in.

(By the way, Germany hasn't been doing the Vegas-style bubble, so their risk is inherently a bit higher.)

And yes, of course it's about money.

 

Sports isn't alone on this. Millions of people have jobs or tasks that can't be done while 100% working from home or distancing, and it may be years (if ever) before there's a vaccine. Do you expect the majority of those people to voluntarily quit their jobs and potentially make zero money for years, should someone at their workplace test positive? All due to fear of a virus where the CFR is below 1%? We're not even two months into the known outbreak in the United States, and many states are already opening back up (including some very hands-on jobs like barber shops, nail salons, etc.).

It's a very bad situation, yes, and it sucks. But I don't think the outcome is going to be a years-long shutdown of any industry that can't do 100% physical distancing and/or work from home. Quality of life (which money ties directly into) is a big consideration. I think the much more likely outcome is a compromise, where we try to do traditional activities in safer ways, but we accept that the risk can't be zero unless we completely (and perhaps permanently) stop doing those activities. I suspect most will say that's too high of a price for what we know about this virus.

 

Nobody is telling the NBA to take a break for years, all of these "we'll rush a bubble mini-season out in maybe two weeks" plans seem insanely premature, even if you close your eyes and squint and pretend the USA (worst outbreak in the developed world) is Germany.

 

What evidence is there to suggest that it would be safer in a few months? I suspect the risk would be even greater later this year due to the likely seasonality of the virus and the absence of heat and humidity to help reduce transmission.

Second, the person I was responding to wrote this: "I’m not even very optimistic about next season, or any other sporting events. The virus isn’t just going to miraculously go away. It’s here until we have a vaccine."

That sure sounds like years, since he references next season (which isn't starting until Christmas no matter what) and a vaccine, which isn't likely for at least 18 months and could be a lot longer than that (if ever).

 

Can't live without two things
Hoop
Sauces
Let's back to normal

 

It might not be "safer" but we will still have less uncertainty in all possible aspects as to what is safe and what is unsafe. I'm not a virologist but my impression is that the amount htat we are learning about this is probably accumulating faster than any similiar pathogen in history, even though there are still a huge amount of unknonws about strains, mutation, transmission etc Another few months = you're basiclaly doubling the amount of time we have had to research this which is potentially extremely significant in term of the body of research data we have.

So, intuitive speculation about "maybe the humidity will keep it down" is more likely have some sort of empirical evidence to back it up and we can act accordingly. I suspect it won't be validated because it hasn't gone away so far, but if you're really concerned about this being a missed opportunity, there's plenty of very humid places in August or Septmeber or whatever to use if this really is a statistically significant factor to have the bubble NBA miniseason.

 

There already is evidence.

https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/f...thr_covid-19_fact_sheet_v13_27apr-final_0.pdf

Also, most people aren't expecting it to "go away." There's nuance to it. It's not either a cure or nothing. It's one of many variables with regards to transmission that can help or harm on a limited basis.

Anyway, I'd be fine waiting until August or September for sports, if the experts agree that gives us a much better shot at having meaningful research data to improve treatment (as compared to late June/July). What I'm not fine with is waiting indefinitely.

 

Come on man. Yes, there's chemical evidence of the virus breaking down more rapidly in heat or UV light or whatever in certain circumstances, but whether that translates to the real world in terms of meaningfully impacting transmission isn't really known, and there's been some brutal outbreaks in Guayaquil, New Orleans, the guest worker dorms in Singapore, Manaus in Brazil - basically, we just don't know to what extent that heat was effective/ineffective there, it was strain, or what.

And yes, "most peopel" aren't expecting it to go away? I guess tht's probably correct. I do know of a very prominent individual, who strongly influences some untold millions of idiots, who expects it to "just go away...like a miracle" and encourages all sorts of dangerous activities that will have the opposite effect. He doesn't represent most, but he does represent many.

 

I strongly support restarting the NBA season.

People, this is a virus. It's not a death sentence for pretty much everybody except a small percentage of the elderly and those with pre-existing major health problems. 99.99% of people under age 40 who are healthy (i.e. NBA Players) who get COVID are just fine. Actually, NBA players probably have an even lower risk because of their respiratory fitness.

The fear pornographers want us to believe that no one is safe. It's just not true. This is a disease that impacts the elderly and the unhealthy. If you fit those descriptions, then by all means lock yourself down and be careful. If not, then go live your life! And guess what, the fear mongers' models have been embarrassingly wrong at every turn. They don't have any credibility left.

We, as a society, need to emphasize the totality of life here, inclusive of quality of life. Quality of life with no job and no sports just sucks. It's time to reopen, with the right precautions in place. If you don't feel safe, then stay home. Meanwhile, we develop community immunity faster, the economy recovers, jobs are restored, and we get back on track.

 

Ok? When did I say it was my own research? They literally say that on the news.

 

It's about to be winter in the southern hemisphere.

 

Look, I guess the point I’m trying to make is that a sports league is made up of many people. It won’t take many of those people to decide not to play for the entire league to decide it’s just too problematic to continue.

I just find it hard to believe that all the coaches and players will want to play if they are fearful of getting the virus.

I do think there will be basketball played next year. But, I expect it could be delayed.

Aggressive testing could possibly be enough for players to feel comfortable about playing.

I’m really hoping something can be figured out. I’m experiencing sports withdrawal pretty bad.

 

The New Orleans outbreak traces to Mardi Gras, which was in late February. The Singapore outbreak, as you said, has to do with interior dorms in close quarters. That's why summer obviously isn't going to cure it, because people still spend lots of time indoors and with air conditioning. The reduced outdoor transmission should help, though.

 

Can Reliant and Toyota Center be used? Maybe Joel Osteen opens up the doors to The Summit?

 

They can celebrate in the locker room like they used to before 1994 in Houston.