This is an old team with bad or below average depth. The core is Harden, WB, Tucker, Gordon, Capela. Capela is the only part of the core likely to improve on their past performance. Try to conceptualize the meaning of "likely" before throwing a tantrum. WB will be better than last season simply because he can't get defensively worse and Billy Donovan should not be coaching offense beyond high school level. But WB was flat out bad last season, the rebounds and the assists don't make up for his poor offense and defense. Harden realistically should be the same or slightly worse than last season, especially given his age and the season he just had. However, he has a tendency to exceed expectations and will feel rejuvenated by WB's presence. He did excellent in Howard and Paul's first seasons, I expect that effect to persist in WB's first season. He seems to be motivated to prove it works, so he will surprise us off the ball. However, his on-ball game is going to suffer a bit with WB on the floor. We shouldn't expect a better season from Harden, but Harden is a f*cking genius so who knows. Tucker, Gordon, Chandler, Green on average as a group will be worse than last season. 1 of them may be better (probably Gordon if he doesn't have an extension), but on average they will be worse. Rivers got hot late in the season, recency bias is clouding your mind about his value. He will be + or - his average for the season, which was just ok. Excellent for the price we got him, gave us good playoff minutes, but he is still part of our problems if teams can shut down our offense by sending a 50% FT shooter to the line. Clint Capela's game has heavily depended on athleticism. He's still young, but the early 20's spring in his step will be static or slightly worse. There is virtually no chance he gets more athletic. It is 100% certain the people he defends will be slightly faster, quicker, more athletic. Teams are going faster/quicker at the expense of size, and Capela doesn't know how to use a size/strength advantage. I do anticipate a slight better FT%. The playoff experience will help his bball iq. He will be fine with WB as another point guard. Expect roughly the same overall impact from him. Clark and House will do well. I have almost no doubt about that. They will be good 7th-8th rotation players. Hartenstein I'm not so sure, he'd have to hit 40% from 3 to be a non-negative on the floor. Yes I know his limited minutes advanced stats looked good. Had little/nothing to do with him. Bennett and McLemore are camp invites, not worth speculating on, but good risks to take if thy both drop weight and commit to defense. All in all, we get slightly better, but the competition improved tremendously and there won't be any cupcake teams that we can trash in the 1st/2nd round. Clippers, Lakers, Nuggets, Jazz, Warriors, Rockets are all legit contenders. Sacramento, Portland, Dallas and San Antonio are better than any 7th/8th seed in years. We'll have to beat 2-3 legit contenders just to get the Finals and play the better team between the Bucks and Sixers. We simply haven't done enough, and our core is more exposed to age-related decline than most other contenders. Don't put your "assuming no injuries" disclaimers in here. Exactly as I told you last season: it is practically a certainty we will have more injuries than most contenders. Only the timing is random or based on luck. We will have injuries. Stop acting like we need the gods to smile upon us. What we need is better load management and more investment in the squad >> in fact it's those things that bite us in the ass come playoff time.
Gambling podcast I listened to had the Rockets over as one of his 3 favorites for win total bets. Points he made were we won 53 last year which was 2 less than expected by Pythagorean win expectancy. Had a lot of injuries. Figures us to be a team really going for 1st seed. His other favorites were Utah over and Blazers under.
Utah is really dangerous. I dont think enough people realize how good they are gonna be. I think Snyder said they had the best shot profile(in terms of expected points) in the whole first round. Keep in mind our defense was not super amazing but still, adding two two-way players to a dangerous defensive team is huge.
None of them in the bench plays defense, Chandler is getting older and older. Gordon’s face is getting rounder and rounder, Bennett is getting bigger and bigger. Green is getting slower and slower on defense. Rest are not playable, MDA is not going to spend 2 extra hours a day to develop young players for future. The first round playoffs vs clippers, Lakers and GS? Tillman is not going to pay MDA like doc rivers 10 million a year if out in first or second round playoffs,
Whoever picked the under is a negative Nancy of the highest caliber. Log the fk off this website and never return. People talking about age like LA’s teams got the freshest faces around. Like our star duo isn’t firmly in prime territory? Milwaukee Bucks like that entire team didn’t overachieve. Like Gordon isn’t gonna shoot better than he did last year or like a bunch of young guys with something to prove...prove nothing? The only team that scares me is the only team that ever beats us. And the warriors lost their best player, their 2nd best player will be recovering from major injury half the season and let’s pretend like Steph Curry can actually carry a team instead of being the glory boy. Let’s pretend Draymond isn’t about to destroy that locker room with his mouth. Let’s pretend the best of scenarios come about with D-Russell on that team knowing he’s getting traded. Let’s pretend they don’t need glue guys like iggy and Livingston. Harden and Westbrook’s motivation and abilities right now top the charts. The rest of the starting lineup are quality role players. The bench and rotation aren’t scrubs. Our biggest worry is assistant coaches and finding a trade partner for Shumpert so we can get another bench or rotation player. 52 wins? There’s are honestly people pretending to be fans that think this squad is about to lose MORE THAN 30 GAMES????
I mentioned this last year, but the *House situation* cost the Rockets 5 games and the #1 seed. The Ripple Effects of moves at the margins can not be ignored. These things matter! So when Tilman goes off on a rant to the media and sees this team not getting a high seed he can look himself in the mirror.....and say "Shut Up and Listen!"
Last season I predicted the over. I overvalued the chemistry of the team to be able to incorporate the new guys. This team isn't quite just plug and play. I am thus more cautious this year. However, having Rivers & House to start the season is big. Just starting the season decently will make a difference. I think the durability of both Harden and Westbrook is a factor here. So I am going to take the OVER on 52. My biggest questions aren't about this team in the regular season. It is how the team responds LATE in a CLOSE game against a quality opponent. Will Russ & Harden make the right and timely decisions in the playoffs.
I voted for exactly 52, but only because the OP failed to provide an "abstain, courteously" option. Hard to imagine they don't surpass 52, but so many teams (meaning so many extra games) got better (and therefore more difficult). Westbrook does not actually have much of a history of making his teammates better, so we'll see.
Clippers outplayed their Pythagorean expected win expectancy by 4 games last year which was the most in the NBA. They lost two big contributors in Sga and Gallo and their star duo is captain load management and a guy coming off surgery. No doubt they will be one of the most dangerous teams if healthy come playoff time, but I don’t see them as a top record threat.
