Rockets 2013 post-deadline speculation

I figured, since there isn't a prominent thread (at least to my knowledge) about post-trade deadline moves/rumors, I thought we could share our opinions here. Mods, please merge/move if necessary.

Considering the roster, salary position, and what players are actually— or presumably— available, I think Morey is going to surprise us again this summer. Here, IMO, are the most glaring needs going into next year (2013-2014) and some realistic types of moves we could be making.

Guaranteed (G) players and team-optioned, or non-guaranteed, contracts (Option amount*- % likelihood of retaining rights- % being on 13-14 active roster, IMO) for next season, based on current active roster:
*If player has option, 13-14 salary will be listed

PG: Lin (G- 95%), Beverley ($788,872- 45%- 40%)
SG: Harden (G- 100%), Anderson ($916,099- 30%- 25%), Garcia ($6,400,000- 5%- 5%)
SF: Parsons ($926,500- 80%- 80%), Delfino ($3,000,000- 50%- 50%)
PF: Motiejunas (G- 80%), Robinson (G- 75%), Jones (G- 50%)
C: Asik (G- 90%), Smith ($884,293- 50%- 50%), Ohlbrecht ($788,872- 30%- 20%)

Note: Tyler Honeycutt has a team-option for ~$900,000. Royce White is guaranteed for ~$1,700,000.

Also: Though a player's option may be picked-up (first %), I am also indicating (second %) the odds of them remaining on active roster to start 2013, as oppose to traded or waived.

The projected salary cap for the 2013-2014 season will be about $60 mil. and, as it stands, the Rockets will have nearly $40 mil. guaranteed on the payroll and that number will increase to ~$46 mil. if Houston guarantees Parsons, Delfino, and any two of Smith, Beverley, and Anderson.

Now the question remains: what do the Rockets do with all that spare change?...


...The most realist off-season scenarios (IMO):


Type of move number one: Acquire a veteran star via free agency

The bold and audacious will suggest offering ~$12-$20 mil., annually, to Howard or J. Smith for a chance to play with Harden & Co.; however, bringing in a player for ~$14-$18 mil over two years would fit nicely into how how our salary situation looks. This player would be a sort of "filler"; not in the sense of a mere role-player, but a "filler" as in a good-to-great player to fill a spot until a star— as Morey states, from "within the organization"— is born.

Potential Target: David West, PF, Indiana Pacers

West is not young, but he's also not on his last leg— yet. He is a 9-year vet coming off a $10 mil. year, that he is certainly proving to be worth. The 6-8, 250 lb. forward is averaging 17/8 per clip and could produce at a similar level for another two years. With the recent trades of Patterson and Morris, Morey has effectively removed the stretch-4 from McHale's repertoire. However, West would provide an interior and mid-range presence that would compliment Asik's low-post game nicely. I believe West could be the perfect "filler" at PF for a front-loaded contract (2-year, $15 mil.) that would allow enough flexibility to potentially target a max player in 14-15. Further, by offering a two year deal, the Rockets will be able to see who pans out as the heir-apparent to the PF position, as I can only imagine one— Robinson, Motiejunas, or Jones— actually signing a second contract with the Rockets, as they will all be facing their first team-options.

Type of move number two: Build up the bench

This is a lot easier said than done. If the Rockets sign a player comparable to West (salary-wise), then the team will have between ~$3-8 mil. to spread around, depending on if Delfino and others (Smith, Beverley, Anderson, Ohlbrecht) are kept on or are casualties. There are very formidable veterans and bundle young talent available this summer to suggest that the Rockets could essentially scramble their bench, unless of course they choose to stick with what they currently have. If not, there are a couple names that pop into mind:

Potential Target(s): Tony Allen, G, Memphis Grizzlies; Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, New Orleans Pelicans; Kyle Korver, SF, Atlanta Hawks; Earl Clark, F, LA Lakers; Randy Foye, PG, Utah Jazz

In an ideal world, the Rockets could bring in two of these players for a combined ~$8 mil./year. However, to sign two key bench players, along with a star (see above), Houston would almost certainly have to part ways with Delfino. I just threw out the type of contracts that I can envision the Rockets finding attractive: Foye could be had for Houston's "Room" exception ($2.5 mil.) and would provide depth at point, thus making Beverley more expendable if need be (or, you could commit to Beverley as the back-up PG for <$1 mil.); Allen would command around $6-7 mil over two years but would provide the backcourt defense that is vital in tight games; Aminu and Clark are each rising talents who will both likely make ~$4-5 mil./year, each will also want a mid-length contract. I would have no problem with carving out $15 mil. for Aminu over the next three years, especially with Parsons coming up for big money. However, this begs the question: why not just extend Parsons (which I am in favor of up to $8 mil/year)?


Personally, I doubt that we land Howard, Smith, Bynum or any "marque" free agents this summer. Perhaps Morey will decide to ship Jones, or any other assets, for a first round pick and sit on it. Who knows? In 18 months Houston could finally see the moment where Morey plays the big-hand— maybe a S&T involving any/all of Motiejunas, Robinson, Parsons, and any picks that we acquire between now and then, for someone huge... *seriously not trolling*

To some all of this up, I believe that if Houston sees a line-up, similar to below, for the 2013-2014 season, then this team will have few worries for the next 2-3 years:

13-14 Line-up:

PG: Lin/Beverley/FA
SG: Harden/Allen (or similar)
SF: Parsons/Delfino
PF: West (or similar)/Robinson or Motiejunas
C: Asik/Motiejunas or Smith


14-15 Line-up (after the wishful-thinking/mega-bullish S&T):

PG: Lin/FA/Beverley
SG: Harden/Allen (or similar)
SF: LeBron/FA
PF: West/Motiejunas
C: Asik/FA


Mind you, this whole post was hypothetical and is supported by only a few hours of salary/CBA research— so try not to grill. Thoughts?

 

I thought that part of the reason Milwaukee liked him is because he, Ellis, and Jennings could all potentially resign next year because the Bucks have the space (as of now).

 

If Delfino is shipped, it won't be a lottery pick in return. Likely, a second and a future second. However, the PF situation in the next 14 months, is the potential to watch. Build T-Rob and D-Mo up with similar PT for a bit— obviously starting after T-Rob gets acclimated— unless D-Mo is dominating. Otherwise, play them near equal time and let one pull ahead of the competition= the other is worth a 1st round pick barring a disaster.

By the way, I didn't mention Jones because I am confident that he'll be an unfortunate casualty of the depth-chart--> traded--> good to great pro, just not with us.