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Ready The Clown Car: The First Batch of Democrats Are Ready To Announce Their 2020 Bids

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Jan 1, 2019.

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  1. generalthade_03

    generalthade_03 Contributing Member

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    Any stupid democrat clown in here willing to bet against me that Mr Trump will be reelected for a second term? You name the bet and I will oblige...
     
    #681 generalthade_03, Apr 3, 2019
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  2. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    #682 Os Trigonum, Apr 4, 2019
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  3. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    #683 Os Trigonum, Apr 4, 2019
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  4. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    #684 Os Trigonum, Apr 4, 2019
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  5. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    It is such a weak field that a dark horse candidate really could come out of the pack and win this thing. If there was anyone dominant in the mix, who looked like a prohibitive favorite, these sorts of third and fourth tier candidates would not even think of running in the numbers that they are.
     
    #685 MojoMan, Apr 4, 2019
  6. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    #686 Os Trigonum, Apr 4, 2019
  7. Andre0087

    Andre0087 Member

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    That entire sentence is what's wrong with people in our country, it's political party over everything...even common sense most of the time.
     
    #687 Andre0087, Apr 4, 2019
  8. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    How does one go about assessing the quality of an electoral field?

    This probably isn't worth that much, but I found a list of general election polls where they ask Trump vs. each of the major Democrat candidates. Here's a sample from the last week:

    General Election: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Biden 53, Trump 40 Biden +13
    General Election: Trump vs. Sanders PPP (D) Sanders 49, Trump 41 Sanders +8
    General Election: Trump vs. Harris PPP (D) Harris 48, Trump 41 Harris +7
    General Election: Trump vs. O'Rourke PPP (D) O'Rourke 47, Trump 41 O'Rourke +6
    General Election: Trump vs. Warren PPP (D) Warren 48, Trump 42 Warren +6
    General Election: Trump vs. Booker PPP (D) Booker 48, Trump 41 Booker +7
    General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg PPP (D) Buttigieg 45, Trump 41 Buttigieg +4
    General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 49, Trump 44 Biden +5
    General Election: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 47, Trump 40 Biden +7
    General Election: Trump vs. Sanders FOX News Sanders 44, Trump 41 Sanders +3
    General Election: Trump vs. Harris FOX News Harris 39, Trump 41 Trump +2
    General Election: Trump vs. Warren FOX News Warren 40, Trump 42 Trump +2
    General Election: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 55, Trump 45 Biden +10
    General Election: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 51, Trump 49 Sanders +2
    General Election: Trump vs. Harris Emerson Harris 52, Trump 48 Harris +4
    General Election: Trump vs. O'Rourke Emerson O'Rourke 49, Trump 51 Trump +2
    General Election: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Warren 51, Trump 49 Warren +2
    General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Schultz Emerson Biden 52, Trump 44, Schultz 4 Biden +8
    General Election: Trump vs. O'Rourke vs. Schultz Emerson Trump 46, O'Rourke 44, Schultz 10 Trump +2

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/#

    We can quibble about the even-handedness of polling companies, and we can note how it's way too early and these things are never accurate. But, is it a weak field when Biden, Sanders, Harris, O'Rourke, Warren, Booker, and Buttigieg all score victories in these things? That sounds like they're 7 deep. Were there 7 Republican candidates in 2011 that polled to beat Obama in the general (I googled, but couldn't easily find it)?
     
    #688 JuanValdez, Apr 4, 2019
  9. HTM

    HTM Member

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    It feels like a lot of folks are running in the Democratic primary or is that just me?
     
    #689 HTM, Apr 4, 2019
  10. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Yeah, they might have to bring in bleachers for the debates - for the candidates. There are a lot. Even more than the Republicans last time around. It is shaping up to be 'The Greatest Show on Earth' in the months to come.
     
    #690 MojoMan, Apr 4, 2019
  11. dachuda86

    dachuda86 Member

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    Careful cause Hilary was always polled ahead but the electoral votes didn't do it for her.
     
    #691 dachuda86, Apr 4, 2019
  12. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    Sure. Like I said, these sorts of polls, especially this early, aren't worth much. But, you like to assess the Democratic field as weak, and really all you've got is your own perspective -- a focus group of one, like my boss likes to say. So what's a good way to assess whether the field is weak or strong? Maybe Vegas has the answer?
     
    #692 JuanValdez, Apr 4, 2019
  13. HTM

    HTM Member

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    2016 really brought polling into question.... at least with regards to the Presidential race.

    The polls were so wrong it's hard to put any faith at all in them now.
     
    #693 HTM, Apr 4, 2019
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  14. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    The polls are all right.
     
    #694 JuanValdez, Apr 4, 2019
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  15. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    I think the polls get too much criticism in 2016. Here's the the RCP for the final week...

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    Basically, the final polls showed Clinton mostly up by a handful (one poll had trump up a couple). And, Clinton won the popular vote by just under 3%. So taking the standard error into account, the national polls were pretty close.

    Where there was some problems was earlier polls when people didn't admit they were voting for trump.

    Also more of the problems were in some of the state polls. But that will always be more of a problem because smaller polling companies are involved in those.
     
    #695 NewRoxFan, Apr 4, 2019
  16. HTM

    HTM Member

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    Uh, well, I saw a lot of stuff that made it seem like a slam dunk for Clinton.. If you can't account for Trump voters not responding or responding inaccurately then your poll isn't very worthwhile..



    https://www.ipsos.com/en/2016-us-pre-elections-clinton-has-90-chance-winning-november-7

    https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/poli...arket-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/index.html

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ters-ipsos-states-of-the-nation-idUSKBN1322J1

    So this information wasn't wrong or misleading?
     
    #696 HTM, Apr 4, 2019
  17. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    I don't know how they are basing their percent winning numbers. But if you look at the Ipsos article, it has Clinton at +5% in the polling. And the last sentence of the CNN article says Clinton is +4%. Again, those are pretty close to the actual popular vote differences (@3%).

    So perhaps your gripe isn't with the pollsters, but the people reading the polls and then making guesses/predictions on who will win. Again, I don't know what they were basing the predictions on... suspect not on national polling numbers, perhaps on state polls.
     
    #697 NewRoxFan, Apr 4, 2019
  18. HTM

    HTM Member

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    I mean, 90% + plus chance of winning is a far cry from "tight race within the margin of error in a small number of important swing states" - everyone was lead to believe it was a slam dunk. Maybe that's the folks interpreting the polls fault more than the polls themselves but either way, the public was certainly misinformed.
     
    #698 HTM, Apr 4, 2019
  19. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    Again, you seem focused on the predictions; the polls are data and the data appeared to be pretty accurate. The predictions made may have been way off. But the polls seemed pretty accurate.

    Since the state by state polling was more an issue, it would be interesting to see how far off the few key states that appeared to have swung the election to trump.
     
    #699 NewRoxFan, Apr 4, 2019
  20. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    What a bunch of liars those people are.
     
    #700 MojoMan, Apr 4, 2019
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