I just built an excel model and ran few cases on the remainder of the season to see what our playoff chances really are. The model is based on us competing with Minnesota and Phoenix for the last spot, and uses the winning percentages for home and away games for the first half of the season as the predictor. Current Records Minnesota: 27/21 Phoenix: 30/19 Houston: 21/30 Case 1: Maintain the same form for the remainder of the year: Minnesota: 46/36 Phoenix: 49/33 Houston: 33/49 Case 2: Rockets maintain form from last 20 games, others remain the same. Minnesota: 46/36 Phoenix: 49/33 Houston: 36/46 Case 3: Rockets improve by 25%, Others decline by 25% Minnesota: 41/41 Phoenix: 44/38 Houston: 42/40 While case 3 sees us sneak in (providing Denver does not) it requires us to go 22 wins 9 losses and Minnesota to get 14 wins 20 losses. Hmmmmmm! I think I'll book that vacation in May afterall.
I think that the rockets will finish strong like Charlotte did last year, and just miss the playoffs. In past years the 8th seed has been just at .500 or a little below, but this year I think the 8th seed will be 4 or 5 games over .500. I just hope we finish strong and play good ball. If we miss the playoffs, the players still know that they played well during the last 50 games of the year. If we land a high lottery pick, like Charlotte did, its a bonus.
Like I've said before. Somebody will come back to the pack and be around .500 ...Every year it happens. It happened in the NFL this year too... almost every team in the AFC was playing .800 ball heading into week 11. Then come playoff time look at who got in. A bunch of 9-7 teams. It's a matter of the younger teams gaining confidence, the older teams playing old, and the schedule favoring conference games near the end of the year. So more losses will pile up on the "higher seeds". Houston has a chance, but they've got to go after it and play well.
41-41 is my prediction for the rockets* *with conditions 1)Rogers returns and no other rocket gets hurt that plays. 2)No trading for players with 1 yr left. Do the rocks make playoffs? I don't know, everytime there is a serious chance for the rockets to make up some ground they lose to a weak team, or the 6-8 seeds get hot. 7 games back...still long shot, but getting close to be in striking distance of striking distance. Right now Striking distance is about 4 games. It will be about 3 after this month. Here's to aliens stealing Garnett's talent. ------------------ Moochie hear no evil Moochie speak no evil Moochie see no evil
Looking at the Rockets next 5 games, 2-3 would be a blessing, 1-4 more likely. That'll make it tough.
I like our chances. It will be tough but it's starting to look better. I didn't think Minnesota would go a slide, but that's what they seem to be doing right now. We had dropped to nearly 10 games behind the 8th slot but now we are suddenly only 7 games back. This will be a great test for the team. The goal is in sight. We can almost touch it. One thing is for sure. If we do make it to the playoffs, other teams will not be looking forward to playing us. Unlike the last few years, we are doing pretty well against "The Elite". We've beaten LA twice and Portland once (nearly twice). As you all know we've lost countless games that we had leads in. It's all about finishing and this crew is starting to learn how to do that.
Personally, I think that I am made in the shade right now and Kagy is going to be giving up some beer. It's funny though, last night I was rooting so hard for the Knicks to beat the T-Wolves, and I can't stand the Knicks. Despite my pessimism, and my desire for a lottery pick, I still would love to see the Rockets (and maybe Charles Barkley) in the playoffs one more time. I don't think its going to happen, though.
