What a race! Every night someone to root for or against... Records & Remaining Schedules - FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED UTH (46-33) - - @ LAL - vs GS @ POR SA (45-34) - vs POR - vs SAC - @ NO OKC (45-34) - @ HOU - @ MIA - vs MEM NO (44-34) @ PHO @ GS - @ LAC - vs SA MIN (44-35) @ LAL - - vs MEM - vs DEN DEN (44-35) - @ LAC - vs POR - @ MIN Tiebreakers The tiebreakers can be found here. The relevant tiebreakers are as follows, I omitted the ones that did not come into play or were unlikely. 2 Team Tie Head-to-Head Record, Division Record (if in same division), Conference Record 3+ Team Tie Head-to-Head Group Record, Division Record (if in same division), Conference Record Head-to-Head Records (record applies to the team in the column header) - UTH SA OKC NO MIN DEN vs UTH --- 1-3 3-1 1-3 2-2 2-2 vs SA 3-1 --- 2-2 2-1 * 2-1 2-2 vs OKC 1-3 2-2 --- 2-1 3-1 3-1 vs NO 3-1 1-2 * 1-2 --- 4-0 2-1 vs MIN 2-2 2-1 1-3 0-4 --- 1-2 ** vs DEN 2-2 2-2 1-3 1-2 2-1 ** ---* SA @ NO (Wed) ** DEN @ MIN (Wed) I did the math and a logical analysis of remaining opponents and was able to determine most of the 2 team tiebreakers already: 2 Team Tiebreakers - UTH SA OKC NO MIN DEN vs UTH --- N Y N Y Y vs SA Y --- N * Y ** vs OKC N Y --- Y Y Y vs NO Y * N --- Y Y vs MIN N Y N N --- *** vs DEN N ** N N *** ---* SA & NO (winner of game on Wed gains the tiebreaker) ** SA & DEN (Head-to-Head tie, Conference Record tie, so determined by Win % against all WC teams in-or-tied for playoffs) *** DEN & MIN (DEN must beat POR & MIN to gain tiebreaker) 3+ Team Tiebreakers If you're interested in a specific combination, just add up the head-to-head records for the entire group. OKC is in BAD shape if they are in a 3-way tie. One interesting note is that after a tiebreaker criteria differentiates a winner and assigns them a seed, the remaining teams (if still tied), then start the whole tiebreaker process over again from the beginning. Hopefully you'll be able to use this as a reference, I'll do my best to add a post after the games each day. Go Rox!
Through Friday (4/6) Records & Remaining Schedules SEED - SAT SUN MON TUE WED 4 UTH (46-33) - @ LAL - vs GS @ POR 5NO (45-34) @ GS - @ LAC - vs SA 6SA (45-34) vs POR - vs SAC - @ NO 7OKC (45-34) @ HOU - @ MIA - vs MEM 8MIN (45-35) - - vs MEM - vs DEN -DEN (44-35) @ LAC - vs POR - @ MINI'd love it if this seeding held! Head-to-Head Records (record applies to the team in the column header) - UTH SA OKC NO MIN DEN vs UTH --- 1-3 3-1 1-3 2-2 2-2 vs SA 3-1 --- 2-2 2-1 * 2-1 2-2 vs OKC 1-3 2-2 --- 2-1 3-1 3-1 vs NO 3-1 1-2 * 1-2 --- 4-0 2-1 vs MIN 2-2 2-1 1-3 0-4 --- 1-2 ** vs DEN 2-2 2-2 1-3 1-2 2-1 ** ---* SA @ NO (Wed) ** DEN @ MIN (Wed) 2 Team Tiebreakers - UTH SA OKC NO MIN DEN vs UTH --- N Y N Y Y vs SA Y --- N * Y ** vs OKC N Y --- Y Y Y vs NO Y * N --- Y Y vs MIN N Y N N --- *** vs DEN N ** N N *** ---* SA & NO (winner of game on Wed gains the tiebreaker) ** SA & DEN (Head-to-Head tie, Conference Record tie, so determined by Win % against all WC teams in-or-tied for playoffs) *** DEN & MIN (DEN must beat POR & MIN to gain tiebreaker)
@today Looks like in a 3-team tiebreaker for MIN, NOLA and OKC, both NOLA and OKC are 2-5 in the three-team pool, and MIN is 7-1. So, MIN wins the tie. What is the next tie-breaker for determining NOLA or OKC for next spot?
The tie is between SA/NO/OKC at 45-34. Minny is 45-35. Edit: Sorry, didn't see your additional question... After a 3+ team tiebreaker has identified a team as the "winner", then if the remaining teams are tied, they start over from scratch. In the case of NO/SA/OKC as of tonight (4/6), NO was the winner in the 3-way tie, and then SA/OKC go back to square one and use the 2-way tiebreaker rules. SA has the edge in H2H. This will obviously change when NO/SA face each other on Wednesday.
I'm not asking present. I'm asking a potential tie, later. I'm actually just asking about how three-team ties work, after the first tie-breaker formula. If NOLA, MIN, and OKC end the season in a tie, MIN wins the tie with 7-1 record, right?, but what is tiebreaker between NOLA and OKC for second spot, since they are tied at 2-5 in the three-team record.
In your scenario, MIN would get the highest seed, and then the NO/OKC 2 team tiebreaker would be head to head record and go to NO. So a 3-way tie between those teams would yield MIN, then NO, then OKC. As long as the tie doesn't involve UTH, OKC is screwed on just about every tiebreaker (2 way or 3+ way).
EDIT. OK, you last post answered. Thx OKC probably loses a 4-team between MIN, NOLA, DEN and OKC. Or even if SAS involved.
Jimmy Butler plays 23 minutes and scores 18 tonight. They should be in. Nuggets play road games against Clippers and Wolves, should be out.
One interesting tidbit is that since MIN/DEN play each other in the final game, one of those two teams will have at least 36 losses. For OKC, this means that they still have control of their own destiny to make the playoffs even if we beat them on Saturday.
In the meantime, if DEN does beat LAC on Saturday, and we beat OKC...OKC will fall out of the playoffs, for at least on day. lulz In fact, if NOLA and SAS lose on Sat, too, we would have a 5-team tie on Saturday...and OKC will lose all ties, and be 9th "seed."
That finale is OKC's lifeline. Three things must happen for OKC to miss the playoffs: 1. They must lose @MIA and @HO.U (quite possible but probably not) 2. MIN wins at home against MEM (almost certain) 3. DEN wins @LA.C and home vs POR (not likely) If only the Pels had beaten OKC at home last Saturday.
A few Denver Scenarios (assuming MIN beats MEM and the other teams stay ahead of them): 1. Lose to Clippers, Beat Portland, Beat Minny - They beat Minny via the division record tiebreaker and make the playoffs (8th seed). 2. Beat the Clippers, Lose to Portland, Beat Minny - They lose the divisional record tiebreaker and do NOT make the playoffs (8th seed). 3. Beat the Clippers, Beat Portland, Beat Minny - They only have 35 losses and they make the playoffs (likely higher than 8th seed). I don't like scenario #3, because if OKC and the remaining teams have no more than 35 losses, that will put OKC in the 8th seed. I would rather have MIN and DEN both have 36 losses so that OKC would go no lower than the 7th seed with 35 losses.
Agreed. I'm rooting for OKC to go 2-1 in the last 3 games, and for Denver and Minny to both lose at least one more game. This would keep OKC away from the 8th seed. The more I think about it, I just don't see MIN (with Butler back) losing at home against Denver if the playoffs are on the line. Assuming that MIN beats MEM, that puts them at 35 losses. If they tie with OKC, OKC loses on the tiebreaker and would finish 8th. Boo... If OKC goes 3-0 in their last 3, then they will finish in the 4-6 range, with 6th being likely. Lots of moving pieces, Saturday should be interesting and will provide some clarity as to what we need to root for. As far as Saturday goes, I'm rooting for DEN to lose, OKC to lose, NO to win and SA to win
Thanks a lot OP!! Great stuff, very exciting in both conferences there are 4-5 positions up in the air. Why did you take out Portland in your latest graph? It's a very real chance Jazz overtake them.
I was looking for this information on ESPN - but they didn't have anything of this quality. Great job OP.
