I asked Jim Callis what he thought about Grossman in today's BA chat: Other Astros questions that came up: Linkage
Absolutely. We shouldn't necessarily sacrifice guys like Grossman for a guy like Telvin Nash because Nash has the higher upside. Instead we probably want a Gose for 3 Grossmans. Though I admittedly like Grossman, but I realize he is J.B. Shuck with 15HR. His floor is probably Bogusevic, with his ceiling a young Luiz Gonzalez, with more walks.
I may be in the minority, but at this point, I don't see Nash's upside. He has a 37% K rate, which is absurdly high for Single A, and a low BA/OBP. I imagine he is fully in line to repeat HiA next year, at the ripe age of 22.
I'd understand if you said you thought he wasn't going to amount to anything; that's a very strong possibility. But can't see his upside? He leads the Cali league in home runs (23) with a home run roughly every 15 plate appearances. He has the best pure power in the system. Odds are he'll never cut down his strikeout rate and up his contact rate to be a viable prospect, but his upside is pretty evident.
His ceiling & floor completely offset each other. IOW, IMO, in order for him to cut down on his Ks and up his BA, he's is going to have to cut his swing way down, thus reducing his HRs. I am not going to pretend to be a scout, but the Rob Deer era of players like Nash has long since passed.
Touche. It is interesting though to look at players like Reynold's and Dunn's minor league #s to find their K rate wasn't nearly what it is in the majors.
Damn... I had no idea that Mitch Einertson hit 24 homers in Greeneville in 2004. The only hitter from that year in the Appalachian League that's done (or is doing) anything of note in the majors? Trevor Plouffe.
Nash's power isn't a product of Lancaster. I've given up on him as a prospect, but unlike those guys, he really has a very high ceiling.
