Peaks and Valleys...

I've observed some intersting trends in the last few weeks, and would like to comment on them, and then follow it up with an overall assesment of our current situation...

A) In the offseason, I was ecstatic about the deals for Griffin and Morris, and am still in a similar state of mind. I feel that Rudy is bringing them along too slowly, and am confused by this, but otherwise I feel that those moves are significant building blocks for our future..

B) In the offseason, I was completely against our acquisition of Rice, the cap room that plugs up for years. I still am, and although I do think he'll eventually contribute something offensively, the fact that he's a declining value, and a one-dimensional one at that, I feel that this represents a significant obstacle to our development...

C) I was one of those really clamoring for us to go after Webber, and haven't changed my mind on this. Yeah, he's been hurt, but that was not forseeable...The money we commited to Taylor,who is (similar to Rice) one dimensional, is not as distressing as Rice's, but isn't a great move in my opinion. The rational some used against getting Webber ( team chemistry, not wanting to mess with success, not leaving enough to re-sign Olajuwon, Shandon,Moochie, etc...) seem to hold even less weight now than they did then...

Ok, all that said, and establishing that I wasn't one of those who thought that we were an imminent threat to the Lakers BEFORE this terrible stretch began, I am surprised by the extent to which people have jumped ship. I don't think we are a team for the present, even with a healthy Francis. Squeaking into the playoffs in the 7th or 8th spot, thus falling quickly to the Lakers or Kings isn't my idea of a successfull season. I say you build a championship contender, not a perrenial also-ran.


As such, this latest stretch of terrible basketball , while being discouraging to watch, and possibly saying something about the character of those we're putting on the floor, DOESN'T really represent a major set-back in our road to building a championship contender. We were actually in a bit of an awkward position, what with Francis and Mobley developing enough to keep us out of or very low in the lottery, but not being enough to carry us to the Promised Land by themselves. We might have been able to overcome that by a signing (like Webber) and propelled ourselves into the Lakers/Kings ect. stratosphere, but the commitments to Taylor and Rice have precluded that possibility for quite a while. That being the case, and IF people are right about the fact that we can put off our Francis draft pick debt another year, having a bad year might represent exactly what we needed...

Consider: Jordan didn't succeed until, following a losing year (due mostly to his missing a lot of time with an injury) the Bulls were able to draft Pippen and Grant to complement him, something they would have been unable to do had he had a healty year and the Bulls had the corresponding mid-level draft pick...

Robinson missing an entire year was, as it happens, the best thing that happened for the Spurs, allowing them to draft Duncan, and leading, like the above example, to becoming a championship-level team that otherwise would have elluded them.

These short-term loss/ long-term gain situations are, I hope, examples of how the Rox can benefit from this poor year, so-far. I know, the risk is that Francis will become unhappy with a losing environment, but I'd rather have a chance at greatness than a guarantee of mediocrity, and besides, there is no guarantee about Steve either way, whether we win 20 games or 40 this year..

With this idea in mind, I say the moves we consider making should be made with the future in mind, and damn the present. Never get to high when you're winning or too low when you're losing. Rudy, while being flawed, is a great coach, and is not the reason we're losing. I'm not crazy about his patterns with younger players, but he's proven very capable at developing them when he's had to...

Cato: Unless a stud 5 is available, Cato will have to do, at least until we develop someone younger, and his contract runs out. Yes, he's overpaid, and yes, it'll haunt us for a while, but in this day and age of limited center availability, if you're going to have a bad contract, it's better to waste it on an over paid big man than an overpaid perimiter player, and there's no way we're going to be able to unload his hefty price tag without taking on a corresponding bad contract.

KT: While I like Kenny, and I admire his improvement, he's a limited player, and I'm afraid he's always going to be one of those barometer players: Capable of putting up decent numbers, but if he's playing significant minutes for your team, you're not going anywhere...Guys like Jim Jackson, Popeye Jones, Olden Polyniece...you know, guys who can do SOMETHING well enough, if you give them the minutes, but don't provide enough of everything else, and you don't win if they're one of your key players...The kind of guys who become significant players on expansion teams for a year or two, and then fade back into role player status...

Moochie: Yes, he's frustrating when playing significant minutes, but he's fine (although overpaid) when he's doing what we have him for; injecting a little energy and penetration, and giving Stevie a breather...Expecting anything more is neither fair, nor realistic...

Stevie: I hope he sits out as long as he needs. I don't want him coming back at half speed, or playing for the last couple of months and then having to have surgery in the off-season...Write this year off altogether, if need be, but get him completely healthy. He's our future, or we need another one...

Mobley: Clearly showing that, while he's very talented, he's not good enough to be The Man...Getting a chance to find that out might prove beneficial once Stevie comes back...I know, he might show more as he gets healthier, but he's not going to be the kind of player who can carry a team on his back for long stretches by himself...

Eddie: PT!PT!PT!PT! That's all I have to say about that...

Morris: (see above)

Rice: ......sigh.....Let's hope he regains his stroke enough to be an instant offense ( albeit vastly overpaid) shooter off the bench for as long as his contract runs, once Steve comes back and the rookies get the PT! they need...

Torres: Don't know enough yet...Might be a player, might be a flash...Have to play wait and see...

Willis, and the rest: Role players, fine for now, not going to be around by the time we're playing for rings...


There, for what it's worth, that's my take...I wasn't as high on our immediate prospects coming into this season as many were, and am not as down as many are now. I actually think that, given the right breaks, this could turn out to be a step forward in the long-run, and that's NOT just pro-Rockets bias...I'd love to hear opinions about my ramblings...

 

( The following is a gratuitous post, designed entirely for the purpose of seeing SOMETHING next to my original thread, as nobody seems at all interested in what i had to say....sniff....)