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I'm worried the SP can't hold on for a few more weeks. I'm not worried about the offense except at 1B (though there is an easy solution that only involves getting a backup catcher). I'm not worried about the middle relief. If they are a problem, it is only because other areas are problems. I'm a little worried about the high leverage relievers. I kind of expected one to have an off year for a high leverage reliever with one or two of the other relievers having a good season. I didn't expect what we've seen. It has to get better. If at least two of hem don't bounce back, Astros are toast.
I almost feel like they should tandem guys until Verlander is back. Martinez, Bielak, and one optionable arm (Henley, not sure who else would work) should be used such that one of them is always on 3 days rest and prepared to pitch 3+ innings. The other 5 pen arms (Hader, Pressly, Abreu, Montero, Scott) would have to handle all the 7-8-9 duties.
My fear is that their are just too many injuries to the pitching staff to realistically expect a turnaround anytime soon and that by the time the reinforcements arrive, we will have dug too deep a hole to recover the season. Hope I am wrong.
One thing I’ve often wondered about during this glorious Astros run is complacency. Sustained success is hard and I’d imagine even harder when you have a 162-game, 6 to 7 times a week schedule. Perhaps that explains not all, but some of this early futility
I think that’s often overblown. Guys RARELY reach this level at all if they are prone to complacency. But even then, many guys have personal motivators outside of winning that should drive them. Young guys like Diaz and Meyers and maybe even Pena and McCormick are trying to establish themselves in the big leagues. Old guys like Abreu are chasing a ring and trying to prove they can still play. Guys like Bregman and Tucker are trying to get paid. Altuve and Alvarez are chasing greatness.
This team simply must find a way for the starters to consistently go 5+ and teams from scoring 6+ runs. Brown has to be able to get through an inning with fewer than 20 pitches. Javier has proven he can limit runs. Blanco has shown promise. France will usually keep the team in a game. The problem with tandem pitching at the MLB level is that it leaves the bullpen short and overworks them. Hopefully JV can return before May and Framber avoided a worse injury. Urquidy may be back in another 30-45 days also. The season isn't lost. The pitching should improve each of the next couple of months and be great by August (fingers crossed) but they have to find a way until then. Hold the line.
I just looked at the actual standings. I've been afraid to up until now..... Turns out we're only 3.5 out of first place. And every team in our division is having trouble getting out of the gate. The mighty rangers are only 1 game above .500. Maybe this can be another year where the AL West is the worst division in the league like the old days. And being a few games above .500 gets you a playoff spot.
Our team era of 5.09 is tied for 2nd to worst in the entire league. https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/view/pitching I dont remember this being the case at any time since I have been watching Astros baseball.
My observations and opinions. The Hunter Brown experiment is getting old. He doesn't go deep in games and often is more bad than good. His era the second half of last season was 6.57 and for the year he averaged less than 6 innings a start. The Astros have need for pen arms - and sometime very soon, Brown may find his ass in the bullpen or AAA. The Astros have given him a lot of rope. The idea is that Brown will be effective out of the pen for an inning or two, and will allow Hader/Pressly/Abreu to not be involved in as many games. The Jose Abreu Experience isn't good enough. Last year Abreu started slow, and by the end of the year was playing well when healthy and overmatched when hurt. This Spring was good- but the first few weeks of 2024 have been a nightmare. If the Astros were 3-4 games over .500% this experiment could continue, but the Astros are under .500% and they need to fill holes on offense to make up for the injuries on the pitching side. The owner and front office need to decide if they want to spend half of their trade deadline war chest of money on Brandon Belt (giving him 6-7 million) to play first and hope that he is the "good" version. If not that, the Astros need to call up Loperfido or move someone from the bench to 1st base. Simply stated, the Abreu experience has ran its course - at least for now. JP France should be named the #5 starter. France isn't anything amazing, but he battles and keeps his teams in the game and unlike Brown or Javier, he fights for innings. He is also somewhat stable. He isn't good enough in the pen. The Astros need to try and get back to .500% over the next month. They have re-enforcements coming soon enough. Justin Verlander will be back to anchor the rotation and not only is he a quality pitcher, he allows the Astros to bump Brown to the pen, so it is twice as good. Valdez is a question mark, and we will have to wait and see what happens. Either way - Garcia and Urquidy will be back and McCullers possibly late in the season. So the Astros will be adding some major fire power in Verlander, Garcia, Urquidy and possibly Valdez. Rotation Valdez Verlander Javier Blanco France Bullpen Hader Pressly Abreu Brown Garcia Montero Urquidy Martinez Roster Altuve Alvarez Tucker Bregman Diaz McCormick Pena Meyers Dubon Caratini Kessinger Singleton Abreu FWIW - if Abreu keeps struggling, I think they will eventually replace both him and Singleton. It is just too big an issue.
I agree with all of this. In August forward, any 2 of Urquidy, France, and Blanco along with any 3 of: JV, Framber, Javier, Garcia, and McCullers should be a perfectly good rotation if healthy. It's tough to pull Brown out of the rotation now with the team having so few healthy options, but he simply must keep them in games. He has leverage stuff and 2+ inning endurance, so maybe he helps more in the pen even if a guy like Aarighetti needs to stay in the rotation. Martinez, Scott, and even Montero have pitched well enough to fill out the bullpen. The "big 3" need to get it together, but need the support and off games to be able to do that. If the team can get to August or September in contention for a playoff spot with: HEALTHY. JV, Framber, McCullers, Javier, Blanco, France in the rotation And Hader, Abreu, Pressly, Brown, Garcia, Montero, and Scott in the bullpen This team could he very dangerous to the rest of baseball.
Solid summary. Play Singleton for the next 5-10 games to see what he does and to give Abreu a reset. Belt has been oft-injured and sitting on the shelf. I would have been happy if they’d signed him early in the offseason but he is not the answer now. They have no choice but to ride whichever healthy starters they have until at least Verlander comes back but shifting Brown to the pen is not an option until at least June. I agree he may end up there and I think he would be an elite reliever but they are in a shitty situation. Roster rules (and Houston’s farm) just aren’t set up to accommodate having 5 SP on the IL and 2 MoR P out past midseason. It is what it is but it still appears to be a short term problem. With any luck the cavalry will come in June/July/August. They REALLY need good outings from France, Blanco, and Javier this weekend.
