Its the effect of having a baseball sub-forum in a basketball forum. There are more and more reactionary GARM posts daily here now than there have been in over 5 years.
Not when you learn the wrong lessons from the past, which is consistently the type of reactionary posts we get here and so many of us complain about. That's a great way to maximize the inefficiency in your lineup. It's a classic traders' nightmare in finance (get out of the stock that fell and buy the stock that's up, resulting in mostly buy high / sell low). You always react to the last week, but in a season of random ups and downs, the result is that you are just maximizing the downs and minimizing the ups.
The Cubs two worst stretches last season were 4-8 and 4-7. One occurred early season, the other late. Of those 15 losses, 12 were within 2 runs, most were 1-run. The latter stretch began when they were 40+ games over .500. What's particularly troubling about the Astros is their 3-5 starters aren't eating innings, so it's weakening a strength, the pen. Injuries are a factor too. Let's maintain and get healthy.
This is the one big concern I have going forward, and one of the reasons that waiting until the deadline is a dangerous game to play, IMO. If the bullpen falters from overuse, the whole thing falls apart like 2015. And at that point, it's too late to do anything about it.
Not sure where you got your data from. From June 20 - June 26, the Cubs went 1-6 From June 30- July 9, the Cubs went 1-9 You look at that total stretch, and they ended up going 5-15. Their record at the beginning of that stretch was 47-21. (52-36 at the end). A stretch like that would lead to a nuclear meltdown in here... but it very well could happen and this team still ends up coasting to a division title.
They also got blown out in a bunch of those losses. The Astros are likely going to go through some far uglier stretches this season than the last week - because "that's baseball". I agree with whoever was asking if a lot of these people were new to baseball or not. Or maybe it's just been so long since the Astros were good, they've forgotten - but fans should get used to losing streaks and looking bad for weeks at a time, etc. It's just how the game is, even for the very best teams. The Astros are on pace to win 107 games with basically a 2.5 man starting rotation. We're unlikely to do that, meaning there's a good chance we're going to play worse over the next 110 games than we have the first 50 games.
Okay, good call. Must didn't scroll down far enough. Best believe though, a nuclear meltdown during a good/great season is 100x better than 100-loss seasons. I realize some here would never admit it.
...or you scrolled down too far, since you were looking at a time where they were already 40 games above .500? In fact the time frame where they truly sucked is only a few weeks away from where the Astros are now. How about people don't overreact like children to every loss... or every bad 5 game stretch... or even a bad 20 game stretch. The goal is always to play your best baseball in September. If they're limping to close the season, regardless of how good they are now, my expectations will be decidedly tempered.
On this note, all you can do is the best you can. That said, we are past the 1/4 mark on the season. While still early, this years trends and stats are beginning to be significant enough on their own, and therefore a big enough sample to start reacting to.
Yes, but there is no indisputable strategy to realize that goal other than attempting to keep guys healthy.
Isn't that what they're attempting to do now? They're giving guys plenty of off days or time to recover at the slightest of injury. LMJ is on a very strict pitch count. Beltran/McCann are older and will need some more recovery time than others. There's plenty of strategy to employ towards that goal. None of that involves overreacting to a 5 game stretch in May.
[sacrasm alert] If only there was an entire field devoted to when certain statistics become "significant" and when they aren't.... its as if there could be a formula of some kind to determine if a difference at this point means a whole lot compared to career numbers, taking sample size into effect... [/scarasm alert]
Agree with most of this, though I'm not sure McCullers's pitch count much more strict than anyone else's. He is leading the team in pitches (would likely be second if Keuchel pitched last start by about 10 pitches) and has gone over 100 as much as Keuchel....he just gets to about 100 pitches in the 6th or 7th instead of the ninth. I am very surprised Astros have pitched him as much as they have. I assume they will rest him later in the year to make up for all the pitches he is throwing now.
The stats came from ESPN which splits 1st and 2nd Half schedules between 2 pages. Admittingly though, I was excited in rushing to "tell you something." I shouldn't have missed the stretch you mentioned. How about you answer this... What's better? A) Nuclear meltdowns (an exaggerated statement anyways) during good/great seasons B) Minimal passion due to 100-loss seasons A or B?
That's quite the bipolar world you live in... where those are the only two options available. I actually loathe front-running fans who come out of the woodwork only when things are good AND they start getting irrationally angry with every bad result/poor move. You can be always irrational (even during the medicore/bad times), you can be always front-running... but when you combine the two, its a lethal combination.
happy to see beltran on the bench... he's look anemic at the plate lately. and even more excited to see correa back and healthy.
I see front running more as fans who claim to be supporters of the current elite teams that aren't necessarily in their market . i.e all of the cavs fans or dynasty years Lakers fans who lived in a different NBA market. I'm not sure you can call Houstonians front runners who didn't necessarily follow so vocally or closely when they sucked, if they have always been fans, or are new to baseball. --------------------- front-runner fan Someone who never stays true to the same teams. They're always fans of the best teams. Ryan: Man I love watching my teams dominate. Jared: Who are your teams? Ryan: The Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Celtics, & NY Giants. Jared: WTF, last year your teams were the Yankees, LA Lakers, & NE Patriots. Ryan: What can I say, I'm a front-runner fan. The Yankees aren't gonna make the playoffs, the Lakers lost last year in the Finals, & Tom Brady is out for the season. Jared: This conversation's over.
