The thing Is that I agree all of these things are negative. However, I do not agree with the timetable. The biggest "problem" isn't here yet. It's 2026 and to some extent 2025. Imagine this team without Tucker or Bregman, Framber, JV, or Pressly. I don't see thecteam signing any premium FA who will want 6+ years if they aren't willing to do that for Bregman or Tucker. So they will be left with prospects and mid-level FAs. The team goes from 5 125+ wRC+/OPS+ hitters to 3. The team loses the 2 most dependable starters who are most likely go 6 innings per start. This team suddenly goes from WS contender to playoff contender. And until they make it, prospects are more likely to fail than become stars.
Other than the owner’s GM phase, I am not sure I buy any of those points. The Astros are going on 3+ years of contending with a poorly rated farm system. Logic would imply that having a poorly rated farm system will eventually catch up to them, but the reality so far has been much different. At some point it’s probably worth considering that farm system rankings simply miss on what Houston is doing. None of the free agent pitchers listed in that article would have helped Houston this early in the season. The Astros were uniquely challenged with 2 MoR SP out for an awkward amount of time; they knew Garcia/McCullers would be out half the season but they are reasonably confident both will be available at some point in the 2nd half. I’m sure they hoped the 7-8 guys they had healthy in March would be enough until then, but by the time Verlander and Urquidy got hurt, it was too late to get Snell or Lorenzen or Montgomery signed and ramped up. Their SP situation has been more bad luck than poor planning. Arrighetti will likely pitch much better than he did last week. Really the main mistake they’ve made on that front was throwing Henley out there when he clearly wasn’t ready rather than just taking a bullpen game. And again, that was really just a gamble that didn’t pay off (although it’s worth noting Houston won that game). Contenders win by consolidating talent and then developing depth behind it. That was the logic behind the Hader signing. Houston is confident they can develop more Maton/Neris/Stanek types, but there’s only 2-3 guys on earth who can do what Hader does. I for one wouldn’t trade Tayler Scott for Ryne Stanek. It might take a month or two, but I am very confident Houston will find the arms to replace Neris and Maton (Seth Martinez may have already replaced Maton). I don’t know the real dynamics of Houston’s leadership. I have not been impressed with Dana Brown’s “GM speak”, and there’s a lot of evidence that Crane and his group of former player cronies are the real decision makers, especially when it comes to large free agent signings and major trades. However, the early returns on Brown’s player development skills appear very positive, so I can totally imagine a world where Brown keeps the farm system humming and Crane keeps stretching his pocketbook, and those 2 things together might overcome any gaffes made by the real leaders. But hopefully Brown is more of a real GM than it appears and he continues to earn Cranes trust, take more ownership of his role, and succeed. Houston’s run will end at some point. But I am optimistic that it can keep going thru Altuve’s and Alvarez’s contracts. Cranes record as an owner is one of the biggest reasons to believe, and it’ll only be in hindsight that I parrot the “Crane is turning into Jerry Jones” narrative.
2026 you have lost ~8-11 wins on offense (Bregman, Tucker, Abreu, Caratini) and ~6-9 wins on pitching (Verlander, Framber, Montero, Pressly, Urquidy). Obviously you can’t take a 95 win team and subtract 14-20 wins and expect to contend. But here are the mitigating factors: Diaz and Brown should improve. There will be payroll flexibility (assuming Crane sustains what he’s already approved); my guess is $70M-$80M in 2026 and even more after that. The farm should recover after the draft pick penalties are processed out of the system. So if you can make up 2-3 wins with internal players improving, 6-7 wins by adding free agents, you only have to come up with 6-10 wins on the farm; that’s a big ask, but it’s really only having 3-4 players really pan out over a 2-3 year period.
The astros will have: Yordan Altuve Pena Yainer McCormick Javier Mccullers Blanco Urquidy Garcia Brown France Hader Their payroll on spotrac is showing 117 million prior to arbitration. 100 million will get you a front of the rotation guy and a couple legit hitters. Mccullers falls off as expiring deal giving them more flexibility too.
I would argue that we are still in this phase. Dana Brown's power seems very limited and Crane is the one behind the major moves and signings. We seem to agree on this.
The only signs are record-setting injuries and some of the worst luck an offense has seen to open a season.
Jim Crane always had a seat at the table or was very much involved in all these moves (with Luhnow): Kazmir trade JV deadline trade (Luhnow directly said he was instrumental in how it got done at the latest stages) First Altuve extension First JV extension Cole trade Greinke trade Trades we didn't hear much about him leading the charge: Jared Cosart, Carlos Gomez, Roberto Osuna. Click era: Second JV extension/signing (Click was against) Yuli signing/being on playoff roster (Click was against) Correa negotiations Signings we didn't hear much about him leading the charge:Baez, Odorizzi, Castro, Stanek Brown era: Montero extension (apparently Click was already working on it) Abreu signing JV trade Altuve extension Hader signing GM's have to be heavily involved in the trades because they (or their staff) know the prospects the best... but when having to take on salary the owner does pull the trigger. We've certainly seen more signings/less trades with Dana... but this has also been more of a complete roster than what the other GM's have inherited.
Only thing I’d add here is that I think José Abreu was identified as a target before Click left. Speculating, but I think one of the reasons Crane felt comfortable taking his time hiring Click’s replacement was because he felt like they already had a solid offseason plan formulated that had been put together with Click’s input. So I don’t think any moves made by Crane were done 100% without any GM’s input. They might’ve overpaid Montero and Abreu, but the idea of signing those guys was made with input from Click.
Also, when we give up the next Bagwell or the next Yordan via trade because Jim Crane ordered that we "do something", he should be rightfully be called out. When we dump Mookie Betts for prospects simply because he's going to make a little more money in a market that could afford him... he should rightfully be called out. But when he signs off on signings, extensions or trades that take on salary... that may or may not work out (and continues to spend money, mind you, even though the Abreu deal is not likely to be in our favor), not sure we should crucify the best owner this city has ever had for pro sports. Crane also very much values the importance of a farm system. He's hired people throughout with that still as a priority. He hasn't gone out and hired a Dombrowski or Ed Wade type that will sell off prospects or overpay FA's just for a possible 1-2 year contending window.
Agreed. And as mentioned above, those moves have yet to prevent other needed moves to be made (although they probably don't have much more financial flexibility this year after Hader).
Having the money and outbidding other teams o. Money and/or years are 2 different things. It feels like Crane's reluctance to go 6+ years will prevent any truly elite FA who would add that kind of Win total from signing in Houston. Now maybe guys like Brantley and Abreu who are injury or age risks sign a 2-3 year deal but the true impact players will be on the Mets or Yankees.
“One of the frustrating parts about today was I felt like I made good pitches at times and they were still able to put the ball in play,” Eovaldi said. “I feel like that's one of the things that the Astros do well as a whole. They're able to expand the strike zone but make it tough at-bats and tough outs.” https://clutchpoints.com/rangers-news-nathan-eovaldi-makes-brutally-honest-astros-admission
We are fortunate that the team has been great in international market and player development. If MLB had a true all amateur draft, we would be hurting a bit more.
We have impact players already. That's Alvarez, Altuve, Yainer, etc. Why would you want to use the Rangers model? They have time to develop more players and sign others when they don't pan out.
