Yes and no. A huge part of the lower debt burden is due to increasing income. The debt burden has remained the same as 2008 while incomes and GDP are up substantially. Only a part of the debt burden is low due to interest rates. Within that, you're right, if rates go up, that becomes problematic (at least for variable-rate and new debt) - and potentially very problematic, especially to our federal debt burden. But interest rates have been on a steady decline for nearly 40 years now, with some minor blips. There are arguments that its going to catch up with us, and there are arguments that it may be a permanent shift. No one really can say who's right. I'd argue it's partly permanent exactly because of the inequality problems we've created - so much new money is going to the wealthy all over the world. They have nothing else to do with it anymore, so they just keep dumping it into bonds, which keeps rates low. I'd argue that if you looked that the data, you'd see that is happening. You're seeing very real personal income growth for households and muted general inflation. But on a broader note, I think trying to convince Americans that their lives suck when they don't feel that way is not a winning electoral strategy. Regardless of if I'm right or you're right, people are feeling pretty good about their personal finances for the most part right now - certainly better than they were 4 years ago. You're not going to win an election trying to convince them otherwise - it plays right into Trump's narrative that Dems are lying to them.
Supporters of individual candidates seem to be doing this a lot when their candidate struggles. The whole "not paying attention" thing made sense a year ago, but it doesn't today. If it did, Warren wouldn't have surged. And people like Herman Cain or Rick Perry wouldn't have had surges in 2012. It does a disservice to voters - basically, it's calling them stupid and implying "if only they knew better, they'd support the person I support". People need to accept that voters might actually know what they are doing and might just not like the candidate they like. Instead of suggesting they are just uninformed, people should focus on why they might view the world differently.
Regardless of political leaning, people with strong political/ideological beliefs tend to believe that a majority of people agree with them or would support their beliefs if they only were properly exposed to them. We have seen that with Republicans in the past that have strayed too far. We are possibly seeing that now with progressives. Things are not perfect in the USA (they never have been and never will be), but for a lot of Americans that actually vote and are actively involved in society, they are reasonably used to and happy/comfortable with the current societal playing field. So when you have politicians and vocal supporters discussing universal healthcare, actively increasing taxes, free college, eliminating the Electoral College and supporting the radical Green Deal; that scares a lot of people that are moderates or even lean left. These are all very radical changes with potentially extreme consequences. There are people that support these measures. Many young people, some minority or marginalized social groups and some that feel that they have been swallowed and forgotten. However, there are also many people with families, that are working class, middle class and upper middle class that do not want to take a wrecking ball to a social structure they believe is overall a good one. So when I hear Bernie Sanders discussed I take it all with a grain of salt, same to a less extent with Elizabeth Warren; I am skeptical. There are a lot of voters (and in this context that is all that matters) that simply will either not vote, or support a corrupt racist over a radical that will upend their life. That is why someone like Joe Biden continued to do well. He isn't so anti establishment that he scares voters. They know he is part of the establishment, but they also trust him more than Trump. That is why he is formidable. A lot of moderates, and even the core base of the Democrat party accept his imperfections with the understanding that he will make marginal changes. Now, at some point some of the ideas championed by Sanders and Warren will become mainstream. We saw that with rights for women, blacks and LGBT rights. I suppose if you are a supporter of Sanders you argue that we are at that point now. I would just say, that if that really is the case, then it should be reflected in the polling for Sanders and Warren.
So much this. Also the same for health care, not everybody thinks it suck. I don't agree that a majority of people think they certainly better than they were 4 years ago, I think they feel about the same. Farmers in the midwest can't certainly feel that way.
People with relevant skills in relevant areas are doing fine. Going to be real hard to convince the public we need some sort of systemic change. Maybe healthcare can lead the 2020 election, maybe not.
That's just not true especially for millennials with relevant skills. Millennial engineers after paying their monthly student loan bills, rent, other bills, healthcare premiums, 401k, are essentially living pay check to pay check. Ya, they aren't living destitute. Sure they have a job where they can pay into a retirement fund, subsidize your health insurance premiums even though deductibles are still back breaking and basic life necessities. But what about emergency expenses if you have to pay a deductible because you told your acl and now needed surgery? You would think making the right choices in life such as doing well in school, becoming an engineer, working full time will net you a life were you aren't living pay check to pay check, where you barely have vacation travel money, emergency funds etc. There is a reason why millennials are statistically leaving their parents later in age than previous generations. It seems like it's one of the main motivations for millennials to get married. Two professionally skilled full time workers' joint income is almost the only way to actually ENJOY life when you are relatively young (25-40 years of age).
As an elder millennial the Great Recession did set me back, but I just don’t agree with you overall narrative as it applies to the greater population. Younger millennials/Gen Z, especially in the Austin area where I live, are getting a better head start than me because the economy is good.
Well , thats just reality. It's the same for millennials as it was for the generation before them - we went to school , ended up with debt to pay off and didnt have a hell of a lot of "Oh ****" money either. Hell my wife makes $150k a year plus , after food , rent , lights , gas , water , phone bills for 5 , cable TV , car payments and insurance and the dreaded $~30k a year to healthcare insurance that you dont even use there aint a hell of a lot left ... there are times we end up dipping into the coookie jar for some unforeseen expense. Hell I drive a 20 year old truck .... Very very few households have the financial ability to take those "Oh ****" expenses on the chin .... and its really not realistic to think just because you went to college you would be one of them. There just arent that many jobs out there paying that kinda money , never have been , never will be. Those are extraordinary jobs / wages.
Thank you for exemplifying my point that we truly live in a oligarchy system where someone can amass billions and we have full time high skilled workers who have to default on bills because they have to pay their deductible for a acl tear. Thanks for admitting the American Dream is dead. Now working hard at school, learning a high skilled proffesion is not enough to to not live pay check to pay check. It isn't enough to be a home owner. At a certain point of wealth accumulation, you are exploiting workers and a system rigged in your favor to earn the next few million. At a certain point, wealth accumulation has nothing to do with innovation, but rather just exploiting the system. And no it wasn't the same form your generation. Your generation didn't have debilitating student loan debt when you started your careers out of college. We are looking at 300-600 dollar payments per month for a at least a decade. Do you no how debilitating it is taking out 500 dollars from your monthly earnings from a entry level position out of college?
Look , I dont disagree with your bottom line here .... some people make more than they need while others barely enough to scratch by. NO , it aint fair. Tell me , whoever told you life was fair ? What you have is a fair chance to be extraordinary - if you aint , you aint. Buckle up butter cup.
No people don't have a fair chance to be "extraordinary". Today people don't become wealthy by holding proffesional jobs. Proffesional jobs give you a middle class life style of having enough to have a 401k, a mortgage if you are not still debilitated by student loan debt, healthcare that still costs a **** ton when you need to actually use it with massive deductibles, a car payment and insurance, miscellaneous bills, food and gorcerices etc. Maybe just enough to drop in a emergency fund from time to time. Bit not enough to invest. Not enough to become wealthy. You need money to invest. Not just any money, but excess money where the investment isn't a massive opportunity cost that risks impacting your other payment responsibilities like the mortft or your student loan debt. Entrepreneurship is suffering for the millennial generation because of the excess debt they have with student loan debt. The more wealth you are born into, the less opportunity cost there is to invest a larger amount of your income. To believe there is equal opportunity is absurd. That isn't even touching the fact that I only could have a decent education and beginning to a promising engineering career because my parents were educated and had upper middle class earnings to chose the school district they wanted to move to and hence recieve a decent public education to do well in college after my service in the Marine Corps. Do all children have that opportunity? There is a massive gap in quality of education depending on who you were born into. No one told me life is fair. But my civics education and my sense of duty to this country tells me that we can TRY to make it more fair. To the founders of this country, it wasn't fair to them that they were taxed without representation. They did something about it.
Those causes had to fight against social norms that do eventually change over time. Greed doesn't change. Corporate influence will always push back on progressive policies hence they won't ever be popular until it's too late and the diverging gap in wealth inequality will be so wide that Bernie style peaceful style political revolution turns into another French style revolution. It seems to be a continuous human cycle.
I didnt say you had a fair chance to be extraordinary - I said you have a chance. Quite the difference. Extraordinary is just that - Not Ordinary. Going to college to work a 9-5 ... aint extraordinary , its typical of America today. What is extraordinary is to have idea's that change & innovate what we do , how we do it and how we live. Those people are few and far between and college isnt a prerequisite to be one of them. Tell me why you think everyone should live like the extraordinary. Quit acting like I'm stopping you or disagreeing with you at all that its not fair .... tell me your idea's on how to fix the wealth inequality. I'm not buying Warren or Bernie for anything other than lip service. For the record , I've stated many times here that I am for single payer healthcare. Healthcare costs are insane. We (A family of 5) pay 25-30k a year and get next to nothing in return. My Dr isnt even covered by my plan and I pay out of pocket to keep her. But .... a government takeover of 1/6th of the entire economy , thats huge.
The general public will actually probably never thoroughly research the candidate at any point. They will form opinions based on what bits and pieces of information float into their lives and routines. But once it is two candidates only and is the general election, they will seek, be exposed to, and probably tire of the increased information and coverage. Either way they will get more and pay information and pay more attention in the general election. There is definitely a range of people along a spectrum who will seek out varying amounts of information.
Really depends upon what you classify the American dream as. You do however have to concede that the gap in wealth today is greater than its ever been and at least in appearances is continuing to widen.
