I think Bernie is at least in some polls leading in Nevada or in a virtual tie. Bernie is leading nationwide with Latinos regardless of age. NV has a lot of unionized Latinos.I believe Sanders will pick up a substantial number of delegates in TX due to Latinos and younger folks regardless of race or ethnicity. Similarly w. AZ and Ga. He does not need to actually come in first. There are several moderates splitting those voters, Biden, Pete, Klobuchar and Warren to a certain extent as she tacks right realizing that she cannot take progressive voters from Bernie. Sanders is I believe the front runner in CA, NY. Biden seems to be slowly losing appeal as it comes out about his dishonesty on his record on social security and the Iraq War. as well as his mispeaking being due to possible cognitive decline. Overall Sanders seems to be closing in recently in more and more ties in a tie w. Biden nationally. There are many folks who like Sanders and his programs, on education, healthcare, large scale response to climate change, minimum wages increases, taxing the rich like we used to etc. who will climb on board as he racks up early wins and destroys the mainstream media (an Biden's just about only appeal that he is more unelectable. I really think Sanders is different than Warren and Sharrod Brown who tend to be traditional liberal politicians. It is not just that Sanders uses the label democratic socialist and they liberal or I guess the current popular."progressive" They both seem content with fiddling with the ACA and only sort of eschew corporate fundraising.
I'm alot of things.... Bernie Bro is not one of them. I think his troll army is the 2nd most obnoxious internet presence out there in the country. Well... the Bitcoin folks are pretty damn obnoxious too I guess... I'm not scared of Bernie like some "moderates" might be but I realize he's got some serious flaws. They all have flaws though so I certainly don't see an easy answer to winning big enough to both beat Trump by taking back the rust belt while also expanding the electorate & having a productive presidency. Nothing happens though if Trump is not beaten though so if Bernie is the best candidate to get him out of office with a rust belt strategy & without the baggage that Biden might have then I think the party should get behind him if the process shows he's the guy best suited to do that. I think right now Wisconsin & Michigan are higher short term problems than Texas & Georgia although if you DON'T have a strategy for expansion then the Senate & House will continue to stay Red and Bernie's presidency will suffer from it. Still 10000% better than a Trump second term though.
I would love to see this and then have the Bernie camp turn around and blame the non-voters for Trump winning. We'd come full circle.
I agree with all of this, my biggest fear with Bernie is that the Republicans will win back the house and keep control of the Senate with their fear campaign worse than they did under Obama. Bernie would be a much bigger boogieman.
Hence my question to @glynch about what he thinks Bernie's strategy will be for winning over the suburban low information voters in expansion states during the general election. Him expanding his electorate during the general election would be key in preventing successful fear campaigns from the right wing media. This voter group is VERY susceptible to right wing media messaging even though alot of them think of themselves as socially liberal and not crazy right wing nuts. If you are in this demographic... you'll hear it even if you aren't totally plugged into politics. Bernie's camp has to have a really good general election expansion strategy for me to really feel confident in me voting for him in the primary. He'll never be my first choice if I continue to not see an articulate expansion strategy into these key areas.
I almost wonder if the best outcome is a Bernie nomination followed by him getting curb stomped in the GE by Trump while the Dems hold the House majority. Not much will get done in that scenario .... But that would have the Dems rethinking their far left , socialist agenda and maybe they come back to the center and we're all better off long term. Then again , asking either party to apply common sense to anything at all is probably asking too much.
Bernie Bros are basically MAGA gang, just on the opposite side. I really hope some one other than Bernie get the nomination, if we have to go with a progressive, I would go with Warren.
Except, you know, a 7-2 Supreme Court majority that will last potentially multiple generations. And it's not like Trump did anything bad in 2019 under the same scenario, right?
If Bernie gets curbstomped, Dems likely lose down-ballot as well - you risk losing both the House and Senate. More importantly, you lose the Supreme Court for the next generation.
I think you just lost all credibility as an objective independent mind by suggesting that maybe the best thing will be for Donald Trump to get re-elected under any circumstance. Then you have the gall to come back and around and say "Dems - far left, socialist agenda".... get out of here with that Sean Hannity nonsense. Then to top it off you finish your post off with some good ole fashion whataboutism. Good lord man. Come on.
If the ultimate centrist (Hillary) can't win, and Bernie can't win, against Donald Trump of all people, then the Democratic party might as well just be disbanded.
I think they look that way because they are cultivated by the same people who cultivate Trump's base with misinformation designed to split the Dem party. I do NOT think Bernie is a Russian asset at all, but his following is still viewed as much of a target by the Russians as Trump's base is for the same reason... to help Trump win by causing cold civil cultural wars. Again, I don't mind if Bernie wins IF his camp realizes how they are incredibly weak in the Dem expansion states that the party won in 2018 that are needed to build a coalition that can win the Senate & keep the House, and creates some strategy for growing his support in those demographics. His base of support is an entirely different challenge to overcome. It's people getting worked up online and causing divisions in our group of voters that works to the advantage of Trump. That sh$t has to stop now or Trump will win in November if Bernie is not the nominee because Bernie's online support is so worked up right now I 100% see a good chunk of them voting for Trump just because they are so filled with internet culture war poison. And if Bernie does win, his followings nastiness will turn off many of those Dem expansion demographics I keep referencing. So yeah... It's a big problem right now, and Dems either in Bernie's camp need to realize they are being cultivated via online propaganda tactics TO HELP TRUMP. Wake up Bernie bros.
Eh .... Hillary may have been centrist but came with a hell of a lot of baggage and all of it had some basis in reality - whether it was actually true or not. Obama was pretty centrist .... Biden is the moderate in the primary and has been leading the polls until recently.
Just what we need .... Not. Neither party needs to hold majorities in both the house and senate while they have the presidency too. That's a recipe for disaster. But this lets us know who the partisans are.
This deflection is so annoying. No centrists will ever own the repudiation of their ideals in 2016. The career-long centrist ran on centrist ideals. The career-long centrist lost on centrist ideals. People didn't sit on their asses (or switch from Obama to Trump) because of the FBI, or Russia, or Emails... they sat on their asses because they felt Hillary would not make any substantive difference in their lives. Obama the President was a centrist... Obama the candidate was decidedly not. Ask yourself... who is the last Democratic centrist candidate that won a general election?
I don't want to disagree b/c I like the overall flavor of your argument, but I do have to disagree. 1. Obama ran, especially in the general, as a centrist. You can look up his platform! He had a megawatt smile and promised "change" but it was not radical change. 2. People vote for people and personalities. The fact that Hillary reads on video and audio like a LIZARD PERSON is really really important. It's why Obama primaried her and why she is unpopular anytime she's run for anything, compared to when she's actually just doing her job in office. 3. Clinton was a centrist. Gore won the popular vote and maybe the presidency. I mean, I want real change like you do. But saying Hillary only lost because of her political stance, I think, is really misguided. It doesn't have to be Russia, etc. It has to be voters are mammals and respond to candidates accordingly.
