i've bet the Astros "OVER" in Vegas the last 3 years But I think this year they finish well under .500. I'd go far as to say less than 70 wins this year..
yeah, it is. Mostly I'm thinking Roy can't be counted on to start as many games as he did last year given what's already popped up. I expect the bullpen to be slightly worse.. not all that much (and I was happy with the moves), but worse. I'm not expecting a ton of improvement out of Norris--maybe I should, but has anyone seen anything new/different so far? It's early, but he was never a huge prospect either. From the hitters, I was reading that Bourn's BABIP was abnormally high last year. While I think he is definitely better than 2 years ago, I'm not expecting him to be quite as good as he was last year. We'd be lucky to get another 130 games out of Kaz (career high). I do think Feliz will have a solid year at MMP especially, so that is a plus. But then it's the question marks. Can Manzella stay healthy and semi-productive all year? Same for whoever ends up with the most at-bats at C when all's said and done this year. And can Berkman stay healthy? I hope so certainly on Lance, but if not, he has shown to come off injuries a bit slowly. Overall, I just feel like there are more question marks and even less things I can be confident in. And on top of that, there's less upside to look forward to, unless you think Pence is gonna have a breakout towards the upper tier of OF's.
Not to be the debbie downer, but they won 74 games last year, and their Pythag W-L was 67 wins based on the runs scored and allowed. Basically, they were lucky to win 74, and the 7-game outperformance was the most of any team. Compared to last year, their offense is worse with the loss of Tejada and with no significant improvements at any other position (maybe 3B, but we've had the Feliz/Blum discussion ad nauseum here). Their bullpen is worse with the change from Hawkins/Valverde to Lyon/Lindstrom. The starting pitching may be improved with Brett Myers, but that's a questionmark like Hampton was (and Myers is already injured). The defense should be improved. But then to top it off, Berkman and Oswalt are both already injured, which is not a good start.
Well we lost one of the best managers in baseball ... The Astros won ten more games than their Pythagorian suggested. Without Cooper's genius running the show last year, the Astros would have been fighting the Pirates for last place. Spoiler I am not being serious.
@ Major & kaleidosky -- good points all. was asking more than challenging. and yes, major, I did forget just how awful they were last year. bleh... @ no worries... lol man. hah!
If Norris and Paulino can take the next step, this is the best chance that the Astros have for bettering their last year record this year. Both showed signs that they could last year.
Are they both slated to start, or is just one of them? I assumed Oswalt/Wandy/Myers/Moehler were locked in, but I haven't really paid much attention. I agree, though - that would be the key to improving if both of them are better and can pitch full seasons.
Excellent! I could care less about the results this season, but I want all the young guys playing as much as possible. I hope Towles gets the chance as the full time player as well - and doesn't get yanked if he struggles for a month or two. This is the season to let these guys compete and get comfortable at the MLB level without the pressure of a pennant race or needing to perform from day #1, etc.
This team doesn't have Mike Hampton or Russ Ortiz starting, so I call that an improvement over last year. Moehler has been bad this spring. I'm hoping Paulino gets the 5th spot, and Daigle gets a spot in the pen. I'm not sure there is room for Moehler, but that would be tough pill to swallow since they did pick up a $3 million option on him.
I agree with quite a few posts here. People will watch us struggle to compete and just rip the management apart for it. It's going to be a tough year guys, but the most important thing is that were finally back on track, which includes signing draft picks, restocking our farm system, and allowing Bud/Paulino/Tommy ect. to get some playing time. Also, it's a big year for Ed. Got I believe 3 picks in the top 50 in this years upcoming draft. Of course, it would be fun to see the guys compete, but I'm not going to get too down about a possible .500 season.
This is spot on. The team will more than likely struggle, but I'm excited to see some of the farmhands come up and give it a go in the majors. I'll definitely be there when Castro gets called up and am looking forward to trips to Round Rock and Corpus to see some of the prospects coming up. I'm hoping that even though McLane is selling the team (allegedly), that he allows Wade, Heck and Co. to stay the course on rebuilding the farm through the draft. I'm seriously hoping the Astros draft the BPA regardless of signability with their first three picks (which happen to be within the first 33 picks). The Astros have a chance to drastically change their farm system with this one draft having the ability to draft some very good talent this early. The 2008 draft two years later looks pretty good, IMO the 2010 draft could be one that helps push the Astros back into contention within the next few years. Regardless of whether the Astros compete this year or not, its still the hometown team and I'm ready to watch some of my favorite players take the field.
Not trying to be a homer or to optimistic here, but this team could potentially win 90 games. Only two years ago we won 86 games....and it's debatable if we were better or worse that year. Oswalt/Rodriguez/Meyers is a formidable front three. If all are healthy then we will be in so much better shape than last year A full year of Bud/Meyers will be a big relief from Hampton/Ortiz. Add in that Castro or Towles might have an above-average year+the addition of Feliz and assuming Kazou puts up numbers that go along with his career, we might be in good shape. The NL central is up for grabs, the Reds are still to young,Pirates are the Pirates, the Brewers lack pitching, the Cardinals have Carpenter/Wainright but they most likely will not be as good as last year and the loss of Joel Pinerio will be rough. Should be fun.
Hey, nothing wrong at all for optimism! Only thing I stress though is that people that share this optimism shouldn't just rip apart management, the players, ect. if the season doesn't go as well. The main focus at this time is rebuilding our farm system while letting some of our younger players get some experience in the major league. But who knows? Stranger things have happened. Would be extremely tough though. You have the Cardinals which should be a lock for the Central, and you have the wild card most likely coming out of the NL East (Whichever team doesn't win, Braves/Phills.) But hey, just will be fun to watch baseball again.
We were near the bottom of the NL in every significant offensive and pitching category last season. One could make a sound argument that we were lucky to win as many games as we did based on those numbers as well as our run differential. I don't see how this team is improved offensively or when it comes to the starting rotation and bullpen. I see Norris in the bullpen within a couple of months as he struggles with command and his lack of pitch variety. Paulino could face the same situation if he does somehow win a spot in the rotation out of ST. After Berkman, Lee, Pence and, hopefully, Bourn, we could have the worst remaining lineup in all of baseball. And it will be tough for Bourn to match what he did last season. Oswalt and Berkman aren't getting off on the right foot in terms of health and those aren't the only injuries. Wandy, like Bourn, has only had one really great complete season in his career so it's not even close to a given that he'll be able to do it again. Myers could end up being not much more than a marginal improvement over Hampton, if at all. Hopefully, that's not the case. There is no telling how he'll fare as a starter. There are a lot of question marks with him. Our bullpen is a huge question mark. Hawkins and Valverde were really good relievers. It's hard to predict bullpen performance but I'm willing to bet that they get used heavily, much like last season where we were near the bottom of the NL in innings per start. It would be great if Sampson could pitch like he did early last season. We'll need all the help we can get out of what will almost certainly be a heavily used pen that doesn't even have a single quality LHP. Maybe Towles breaks through. Maybe not. Matsui will likely spend 60+ games on the DL. Maysonet had a nice handful of ABs last season but his years of minor league ABs point to him being a very, very poot hitter at this level, as is the case with Chris Johnson, regardless of what he's done against ST pitching. A lot of nobodies have success in small stretches and in ST. I see us winning between 60-70 games. Our big league team is bad and our farm system is worse, even after a couple of decent drafts. It'll likely be about 5 years before this team is contending for the playoffs again.
I'd say 2-3 years before possibly legitimate contenders. Five years is a bit of a stretch even in baseball. A good portion of our contracts are coming up in the next few years and we will become factors in free agency which will aid our cause. This upcoming off-season as of right now has a nice class. Hopefully we can play a role on it. You said you don't think our rotation will be better. I have to disagree. Following the career path of Oswalt he will have a bounce back season and win more than 8 games, most likely avoiding 16 no decisions like he had last year. Meyers has proven that he is a more than legitimate starter IF he can stay healthy. He is 1 million times better than Hampton or Ortiz, who were just God awful. Rodriguez has been steadily improving over the past years and has blossomed at an older age. He has quietly become one of the best left handers in the National League Norris hopefully can improve from last season, he got knocked around a bit after his fast start but rebounded quickly. A huge factor into a successful season will be the new coaching positions. We saw how lazy and uncaring the players became last year with Cecil. Hopefully with Mills the intensity will be there all season long. A new pitching coach doesn't hurt either. Berkman/Lee/Oswalt/Pence are all players that can put up All-Star caliber stats on any season. Most teams that have potentially four all-star players should be at least wild card or division contenders. With some luck I think this team can contend for a playoff spot.
Yea, I'm interested to see what Mills and the other new guys bring to the table. That will be one of the things worth watching this season. Anything is possible in sport but I see this team duking it out for bottom spot in the Central and possibly the NL, esp. if either Oswalt or Berkman miss extended time for any reason. I'm looking forward to what Towles can do this time around and I always love watching Pence and Bourn play the game. They're all about heart and hustle. I'll always be a fan of Berkman and Oswalt. FYI... it's Myers, not Meyers. You would think he'd be a significant upgrade but it's funny how things turn out sometimes. He's had his share of struggles both on and off the field.
