The Astros are on pace for something like 103 wins. If they are the 2nd wildcard, meaning at least 4 teams in the AL won 103 games, then we have a ridiculously fluky season and so be it. I'm not going to spend any time worrying about that. It's more likely that Verlander, Cole, and Morton all get hurt and end our playoff chances that way, but I'm not going to worry about that possibility either.
What is the relevance of bringing up the 2016 Rangers? To point out that the Astros are not guaranteed to win the division? I think we all agree that it's possible the Astros do not win the division this season, but that outcome is unlikely at this point in time.
Also, the Mariners are on a 7-game win streak as a result of playing two historically bad teams in baseball - both the Royals and Orioles are on pace for 115 losses, which would be the 2nd worst records in the last 50+ years.
Only 1 team needs to win more than 103 games in that scenario. That said, Seattle is on pace to be the luckiest team since at least 1974 in sequencing (limit to Fangraphs WPA information) and still is behind the Astros.
Unless I'm misunderstanding, if the Astros win 103 games and are the 2nd WC, it would mean the Mariners, Yankees, and Red Sox would have won at least that many games, no? The only other scenario would be if the Angels or someone wins 104 games, and the AL East only has 1 representative. Then you'd have 3 teams winning 103 games (Mariners, Angels, and Astros).
