well he's right about the first half of that. i'd like to see us sign big unit. guy had a surprisingly good year last year and stayed healthy for the most part. he can still strike em out. would be fun to have him back.
Look, I don't want to get rid of Oswalt, Berkman or Lee but consider these factors: 1. We have the worst farm system in all of baseball. 2. Last season, despite making a run at the WC, we were once again ranked in the bottom half of the NL in most offensive and pitching categories. 3. Every playoff team last season had a positive run differential and most of those teams had very significant positive differentials. The Astros were in the red and it could have been much worse if not for Wolf and Moehler pitching over their heads at times on top of Oswalt having a ridiculous stretch of dominance. If Oswalt, Wolf and Moehler didn't have some of the best outings of their careers during the 2nd half, we probably weren't even close to the WC and the whole "we were close" talk is out the window. 4. If we don't sign at least one top flight pitcher, we could have the worst rotation in the NL next season. I strongly believe Moehler will come back to earth and we will regret paying him $3+ million. Wandy is a back of the rotation pitcher yet he may be our #2 coming into spring training. Backe was awful. If he returns, he likely can't be any worse. If he doesn't, who replaces him. I doubt Wolf will be back and we don't have any strong candidates ready to step up. Who knows if Paulino will ever stay healthy long enough to see if he can be a decent pro? 5. 4 or 5 of our core players take up a massive bulk of the payroll. Tejada coming off the books after next season will help, assuming we aren't stupid enough to resign him for big $$. Regardless, Berkman, Oswalt and Lee will still take up a lot and if we plan to resign guys like Valverde, Pence and Wigginton, we will be strapped once again while still having a below average team. Why didn't we have a real shot at Peavy? See reason #1 above. Are we anywhere close to being contenders next season? I say no because of reasons 1-4 above. I'm sure somebody will counter with "we were so close last season." I don't buy that. I say we seriously overachieved. Every single significant statistic says the same. We had too many weaknesses last season that we somehow compensated for or just got lucky despite them. It's ridiculous to expect the same next season. It's fine to hope and pray for another year of overachievement. By the time this team shores up enough of it's weaknesses (very low BB and OBP, poor pitching beyond Oswalt and maybe one or two RPs) to be legit contenders, Oswalt, Berkman and Lee will likely be on the downside of their careers. This means their trade value will be diminished and we won't be able to get back as much for them. Adding minor league talent/potential doesn't guarantee you will produce replacements for those guys but it does give you a lot more to bargain with the next time a Jake Peavy with a very budget-friendly contract rolls around. After all, if the Braves land him, most of what they are offering in return is unguaranteed potential. Additionally, by moving some, or all, of our big contracts, we will have more money to spend in future free agency. We could be in the market for younger talent looking for their first big contracts. It's not easy to let go of guys like Berkman and Oswalt but, in my opinion, making those tough decisions would put us in much better position down the road. Trying to make minor moves to fix major weaknesses won't work and if they realize that too late, our best players will no longer bring us the talent our farm system needs so badly. If we were a piece or two away from contending and had the flexibility (payroll, farm talent) to acquire those pieces, I wouldn't take this stance. If the Astros have a bad first half in 2009, I hope McLane and Wade finally start the rebuildiing process.
The sad part is that as long as Drayton is the owner, "rebuilding" will never happen. He will always rely on an incredible amount or PR to convince "Joe Ticketbuyer" that the sh!@ they are fielding is actually a contender. I'm convinced that's why Gerry Hunsicker was shown the door. He was willing to stand up to Drayton and tell him the truth. Wade just seems like a "yes man" which I guess is what Drayton wanted. Bottom line: as long as the turnstyles are a turnin'....all is well in Drayton's world.
So, you trade Oswalt, Berkman and Lee to get prospects... so that you may one day be able to trade for a guy like Peavy... who is just about Roy's equal right now (who has a worse contract than Roy). Got it. Like Carlos Lee (we gave him his first big contract, and he's only just finished year 2 of it). Look, I see where you're coming from... but you have toi realize that its just not that simple. You know right away that you're not going to get equal value for these guys (who, btw, don't make that much in comparison to today's contracts... 25 million a year for Sabathia? no thanks). Also, even if you do land a couple of decent prospects... you still have to continue to bring up prospects through your own system (not ones you traded for). This isn't like the NFL or NBA... where your multiple 1st and 2nd round picks you get in return have a high probability of turning into something. Baseball requires CONSTANT talent infusion from the minors for the most successful teams. Take a look at what we were able todevelop through the years (without having to trade Biggio/Bagwell or any other huge name to get them...): Oswalt, Wade Miller, Hernandez, Brad Lidge, Berkman, Hidalgo, Taveras, Pence, John Buck, Qualls, ... even Ensberg, Everett, Lane contributed enough. Now, besides Pence, none of those players were within the last 2 years. We've had the mixed results of Wandy, Nieve, Towles, and Sampson. Hirsh doesn't look to have panned out so far for Colorado. And they haven't gotten anything yet out of the top picks of the last Hunsicker/Pupurra drafts (Dietrich, Sapp, Bogusevic). THAT is more reason than ever why the Astros have a seemingly "helpless" farm system... and its something that needs to be fixed regardless of who they could possibly trade. I'm not against trading one of them if you can totally pillage a team with a rich farm system (which is unlikely given that teams that have rich farm systems don't normally make those type of trades)... but I think you're seriously over-estimating the "rebuilding" capability by simply trading established veterans. There is some hope with the resent draft picks in Castro (who may be fast-tracked) and Lyle. Drew Sutton may compete with Matsui next year, and hell... Bogusevic may just actually provide a contribution. They do have to continue to try to find at least one above average/on-the-cusp MLB ready pitcher somehwere in their system... Paulino, Brad James, Bud Norris are the only candidates I see.
Hunsicker wanted Biggio gone in 2002... in favor of Jason Lane. Hunsicker never wanted to sign Clemens/Pettite. Hunsicker actually had to be convinced by Nolan Ryan/Drayton to bring up Roy Oswalt when he did in 2001... he's on record as saying he screwed up by not realizing what he had sooner. Hunsicker convinced Drayton that Abreu should be unprotected, while Bell/Hidalgo should stay. Hunsicker was the one who got rid of Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen for a half-year rental (which nobody should argue against... but it did deplete the farm system and lead to the 2000 spending). Hunsicker did want Wagner gone... but couldn't get more for him than Buchholz, Astacio, Duckworth. Hunsicker did a lot of good here... but lets not paint him to be the ultimate messiah and a tragic figure in this whole process. While Drayton was responsible for Bagwell's albatross contract, Hunsicker was the one who pushed for Hidalgo's (which was just as atrocious), and those combined to haunt the Astros for most of this decade. It was a series of clashes that each side had its own arguments for, but in the end who freaking cares. The organization needs to get back to drafting well, scouting international players, and simply getting some luck (no injuries to the young arms). Drayton has no control over those aspects of the club... and those are the facets that help build long-term winners...more than the occasional mid-range "win now" free agent, and "drink the koolaid" type speeches by the owners.
and ultimately hunsicker was here for about a decade. everytime i hear people complain about him being "run off" it's as if he was here for just a couple of years and run off. apparently drayton wasn't so hideous as to keep him from sticking around (and making a fair chunk of change) with the Astros.
this has to be the only city in the country where people b**** that the owner won't trade off veteran all stars for no-name, could-be talent.
Any interest in a Randy Johnson return Astros fans? He's not returning to Arizona after they refused to resign him for $8 million.
If he's willing to sign 1 year at a time... with a largely incentive-based deal... sure. If not, then eh. He had a decent year last year... which just makes him more likely to break down or struggle again this year. And Sabbathia fixing to get $25 million/ year (stupid Yankees) is likely to raise the perceived going rate for all free agents.
Let's not forget three awful drafts at the end of his tenure here, which are as much a part of our current farm problem as Purpura's draft madness. I'm a big Hunsicker fan; I wish he wouldn't have left. But I agree with you that we shouldn't "paint him to be the ultimate messiah and a tragic figure in this whole process". Hidalgo's was worse--we actually got production out of Bagwell for the majority of his contract. Hidalgo was money flat pissed away.
That's an outrageous statement. I guarantee you it's the exact opposite. Fans of every team b**** and moan no matter what just like some Astros fans (myself included). I guarantee there are Padres fans that will support the Peavy trade just like there will be many others that lament losing him for whatever they get. I know for a fact that there are/were Indians fans that understood the need to trade Sabathia last season (my father's side of the family is from Cleveland) while others thought it sucked, especially after the Indians started playing better in the 2nd half. Fan reaction is pretty similar anywhere you go. You always have people on both sides of an issue. I've lived in several different cities (Cleveland, Washington D.C., Miami, San Jose, Kansas City, Houston) and seen this first hand. Sure, there will always be more people that never want to let go of their superstars, regardless of their team's standings, but there are also plenty of educated fans that understand the rebuilding process and have seen good results come out of it.
Brooks, I have to agree with you. We're generally harder on ourselves than other cities (except Dallahoma, of course).
I saw yesterday that Wolf was going to cost us 8M. I'd rather take a chance with the Unit than Wolf at relatively the same price.
fans love: 1) to play GM - look at the rise of fantasy sports; 2) the lure of a fresh starts - look at how the nfl draft has exploded into a year-long industry. couple that with too many taking what they already have for granted, and i'd wager this is pretty universal. funny thing is these fans are the same ones screaming at the top of their lungs the moment the realization sets in that, while rebuilding, their team is going to suck (coughtexanscough).
i like how you did this: there are fans and then there are *educated* fans and hey, what do you know: these fan PhDs happen to agree with your point of view... nice. first, and foremost, you're discounting several key factors: haven't enjoyed the past two years? get ready for that mixed with a dose of endless hell if you deal berkman, lee and oswalt - i can't even fathom who would replace those guys but they'd likely help us post a win total somewhere in the 60s. and god forbid if any of the prospects we get in return suck because then you're the cincinnati reds or pittsburgh pirates. is that really a risk you want to take? i really like and admire what drayton is trying to do: win now *and* tomorrow. and i remain absolutely baffled why fans don't embrace it. no one enjoyed the late season run last year? you'd be happier with a 65-win team and reading about our prospects in the paper? as long as they remain commited to rebuilding the farm, i'm fine with them trying to field a credible major league team, especially when you have 3 relatively young (certainly not old) guys who are among the 20 or 30 best players in baseball.
Granted, with one huge exception: Rebuilding would imply that something was actually built. When the current regime took over, the Texans had never *not* sucked. It's not like the Astros rebuilding in '91 or the Pack rebuilding around Favre. Say you work on a construction project for a large building. The dirt workers push and pack dirt for two or three months. Then the concrete folks come in and pour 16 or 20 "bell-bottoms" that are each like 15 feet deep. Then, as you're preparing to oversee the actual foundation begin poured, the engineer comes by and discovers the dirt wasn't done correctly, the drainage is configured wrong on the property, and the beams for the foundation are all wrong. You'll have to push dirt around two *more* months, then pour all new beams for the foundation. You've started over, all right--it's frustrating, annoying, and very costly--but it's not "rebuilding". Nothing was ever built. You've just chased your tail for six months spending money a urinating in the wind. That is the Texans 2002-2005, minus a couple decent draft picks.
See... I really don't know about that. I honestly feel that Randy Wolf can give this team 200+ innings (which is desparately needed by somebody other than Roy O), as well as a fair share of quality starts. Though medicore, I would take a low 4 ERA out of him... and honestly, 7-8 million is the going rate for a 200 inning/4ERA pitcher these days. Also, while you have the same price per year... when you talk about multi-year deals, and one of the candidates is 40+ years old, it really isn't "the same price." Randy Johnson may not give us even 100 innings... and you can't sign him for more than 1 year at a time (or at least you shouldn't). If he was willing to accept an incentive-based deal (4 million base salary, with 5 million bonus if he pitches 175+ innings), I'd sign him.
Sign both to incentive laden deals. And sign Hampton to one, too. Bulldog could at least pinch hit for us.
