Interesting. Yankees barely gave up anything for him player wise. I guess the sticking point was money. Yankees took on pretty much the entire thing.
If Astros go non-traditional, I see this as easier to implement. Probably keep McCullers, McHugh, and Morton in the rotation, but having Peacock bounce around back of rotation pitching 3-4 innings after one of those guys each time through the order. Tandem starting for BoR seems the way to go to chew through the regular season. Advantage of 6-man is likely better health and more consistent starts. The biggest drawback for a 6-man rotation is that pitchers like to pitch. As such, the first year or two will be a managerial nightmare, and it could cost free agents as other teams can still offer 5-man rotation.
A lot of gamesmanship. He’s probably gone after this year, and that’s fine. One interesting thing to watch is how the new CBA changes to the luxury tax will affect the top end of free agency. To now mid market teams like Houston basically have no chance with the very top of the free agent market because teams like NY, LA, and a few others had what amounted to unlimited budgets. But the new CBA installed what looks like a soft salary cap because the penalties for the luxury tax are so high. I think that combined with owners and GMs getting smarter may make it more feasible for Houston to wade into the deep end and we may even see that this offseason. I don’t think we will see a $200M this offseason and the guys at the top like JD Martinez and Jake Arrieta may be greatly disappointed in the offers they see. Which teams can even afford a $200M contract right now? The Yankees are out. The Dodgers are looking to pare down. The Phillies aren’t ready yet. Outside of Boston and St. Louis, I don’t see a huge budget surplus in any of the other contenders (Nats, Indians, Cubs). The Giants also apparently have money to spend. We’ll see, I won’t be surprised at all to see Houston make a big splash.
This offseason, you are probably right as a lot of the big market teams are already deep in the tax or trying to reshape roster and payroll to sign better guys in 2018. In the long run, I'm thinking the luxury tax will affect the low to middle class of free agency (position players more than pitchers) more. It is easier to depend on the farm to fill out the bottom of a roster than the top end guys.
I don't know if we'll go to a 6 man rotation from the start of the season, but we'll probably have 9 different guys start games at least 5 games this year, as we have the past few years. The question will be how many starts will the 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th guys have? Here's the breakdown from last year: Pitcher Games Started Fiers 28 Morton 25 Keuchel 23 McCullers 22 Peacock 21 Musgrove 15 McHugh 12 Paulino 6 Verlander 5 Martes 4 Diaz 1 Of course, Fiers is gone. I'm expecting/hoping Keuchel, McCullers, McHugh, and Morton to all pitch around 22 games, and then take a few weeks off with their annual dings. Verlander is a horse and will likely pitch 28. That still leaves 46 starts, which I suspect will be distributed to a mix of Paulino, Martes and Peacock and some young gun from the minors. Although I suspect Hinch has a strong desire to keep Musgrove, Peacock and Devo as quasi-long relievers. They each may be pitching 6 innings a week. As Paulino and Martes still have options, I'm guessing one of them will be stashed in the minors until the first injury occurs.
He gone. That's what a lot of us have expected for awhile though. He won us a World Series so he leaves with my blessing. I don't really want to give a mega-deal to a guy that injury prone.
I think his 2018 will determine much. If: 1) healthy AND effective 2) one and not the other 3) neither Which of these comes to be for him in 2018 will have a great bearing on what teams want to give him 2019 and beyond. Only outcome 1) guarantees him what he is seeking.
The average team was about 120 innings last year. I'm guessing that the average rises to about 130 innings. Astros were at 108 last year. I'm guessing Astros do about the same or go against the grain by dropping 5-10 innings pitched by pen in innings 4-6.
I think that Peacock has earned the chance to be a starter. The Astros do have six legitimate starters: Keuchel, McCullers, McHugh, Morton, Verlander and Peacock. I wonder if Luhnow and Hinch are toying with the idea of a six man rotation, at least for April and May. By June, they can switch to a five man rotation. Injuries would accelerate the decision.
Watch what Arrieta gets. Keuchel's contract will be very similar and maybe 10% more. They both won a Cy Young and helped their team win a World Series. Neither are true workhorses. Arrieta has thrown 200 innnings only once and Keuchel only twice. Arrieta has a slightly lower career WHIP and ERA. However, Keuchel will be a little younger when he hits free agency.
This is a really solid look at the way games started could break down for this pitching staff. Although I think those predictions might even be a little conservative. I don't expect McCullers to start more than 22 games. Although if he can even stay a little healthier than last season he could very well get 25 starts. I fully expect Keuchel to get a few more starts than 23. Same as McCullers, if he can even stay a little healthier than he did last season (let's say he only has one extended DL stint) then there's no reason why he can't start anywhere around 25-26 games. I think anywhere right around 22 starts is very realistic for Morton and McCugh. Although I could see McCugh getting more than 22 if he earns a spot in the rotation right out of spring training. In both 2015 and 2016 he started over 30 games so if he breaks spring training in the rotation then I fully expect him to start upwards of 30 games. As far as Verlander goes, he's only started less than 30 games once in his entire career (his rookie season and when he was injured in 2015). I see no reason to expect him to start any fewer than 30-34 starts. If all of this plays out (Verlander 32 Keuchel 25, McCullers, 25, McCugh 25 and Morton 22) that would leave 33 starts. Let's say Peacock picks up 15 starts (filling in for injured starters or being inserted into the rotation if McCugh doesn't perform). That leaves you with 18 starts. Potentially even less if Peacock winds up starting upwards of 20. I don't have any problem splitting those remaining 18 starts between guys like Martes, Musgrove or Paulino. There's obviously a ton of factors that could keep it from playing out like this. We could sign a starter like Arrieta and Darvish, we could encounter significantly more/less injuries than last season (although I'd be surprised if we encountered more) or someone like Martes could earn a starting spot with a great spring training and really solidify his spot. However, if this upcoming season plays out remotely like the scenario above, I'll be more than happy and would expect another really great season.
Four of those six have significant injury history. The odds are pretty good at least one of them continues to. Cant imagine that all six will be healthy enough, long enough, for a 6 man rotation to last long if even employed in the first place. I think we would need 7 or 8 starters to make the 6 man work. Regardless of initial opening strategy, as it always does, how the season plays out will steer what we need and have to do.
I think there are two different definitions regarding a six man rotation. 1. A true 6 man rotation. 2. 6 starters being used in a 5 man rotation. The Astros will give the ball to a healthy and performing Verlander and Keuchel and McCullers every 5th game.
1. Requires requisite personnel. 2. So, at times, a starter may go 10 or 11 days without pitching (skip a start)? Is that really an advantage for said pitcher?
Yankees are kicking the tires on Fulmer and Corbin. Fulmer would require a Chris Sale-type haul. That would be a scary team if they upgrade the rotation. But maybe they are going for broke over the next few seasons. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017...ael-fulmer-patrick-corbin-in-trade-talks.html
I'm guessing the Astros will likely run your 2nd option of a 6-man rotation for a decent chunk of the year once pitchers start feeling more aches and pains. Regarding Keuchel, and McCullers taking the ball every 5th day, the tricky part is being healthy and performing.
Their egos are still bruised. Hard for them to accept they lost to a lowly Houston team (NOT). Wouldn't surprise me a bit if they widen the wallet. Unfortunately, payroll supremacy is not a fight we can win with them. We will just have to hope their plan backfires somehow and/or moves dont all pan out. Be interesting to see if our brass look beyond pitching in their winter strategy.
