[Official] Astros Offseason Thread

Send Lidge, Ensberg, possibly a prospect for A-Rod. Definitely need to go find a starting pitcher as well.

 

If I could get ARod for Lidge, Ensberg & 1 or 2 pitcing prospects, I would. However, why would George want Lidge when he has Mario?

 

Because if George could, he would go out and get the top 6 closers in the Major Leagues and call it his bullpen.

 

Another question that could be answered is, why would Boston want Lidge? Dotel is finishing his career, Lidge is still young. Possible Yankee set-up man, soon to be closer with Mario getting old.

 

IMHO it all starts with pitching. Right now its Roy Oswalt the ace and then everyone else. Backe is gone for 2007 and probably half of 2008. Hirsh, Albers, Nieve and Rodriguez should all be vying for a spot in the rotation. Lets give Patton a long look in spring training and see what he can contribute.

I'd like to see the Astros sign a veteran on the cheap (Woody Williams' name has been thrown out there). Make an offer to Schmidt and Zito (3-4yrs, $33-48 million, depending on years) thats just under market value. Find out if Pettitte wants back in the fold. I'm sure Pettitte would come back at a reduced (at least from this year's salary) rate and give it one more try. As for the Rocket, he said it loud and clear last year, put the team together as if I'm not coming back and make some improvements. If Clemens comes back its a plus, if he doesn't then you've made an adjustment for his loss of production. Getting at least two starters is the most pressing need the Astros have despite their offensive woes.

Leave the bullpen alone. Lidge has had his head examined enough by just about every coach and fellow pitcher on the staff and statistically he's still a decent closer. Wheeler and Qualls were nails during the year and the rest of the bullpen did just fine. Adding another long reliever of lefty would help what is IMO a strength.

Like Patton, take a long look at Hunter Pence. He's been mashing the ball like crazy in the minors, lets see what he can do in the big leagues. Make an offer to Soriano and Lee, just don't break the bank for them. Truth be told I'd rather have Soriano than Lee, because he can steal bases and run.

Inquire about players that are a year away from free agency, or big arbitration raises. Vernon Wells has been a name tossed around, the guy is a five-tool player that could be on the market if the Jays think he won't resign with them. As much as it is a longshot, inquire about A-Rod. With Texas paying a large part of his salary, and all of NY giving up on him, A-Rod could be (dare I say it...) affordable for the Astros. He has the numbers and the production (at least during the regular season) and could be a great shot in the arm for the lineup. A-Rod and Berkman in the lineup back-to-back would be great. Does he want to leave NY and come here? He'd have to waive his no-trade clause. Nonetheless if he is on the market, you have to throw your hat in the ring. Dontrelle Willis is another player that seems to be on the chopping block in Florida seeing as how he is due a big raise after this season. This deal along with Miguel Cabrera are the most difficult and most unlikely trades to happen. Florida is going to want a king's ransom for Cabrera or Willis and the Astros are most likely not going to let go of that many prospects.

I'll probably get flamed for this next comment, but McLane needs to step it up and get this team geraed for another run. With Clemens, Bagwell and Pettitte off the books, there is a substantial amount of money to go after some good players in free agency. I'm just hoping that he doesn't tighten the purse strings so much that all we can hope for is a Preston Wilson-type signing at the end of free agency. Nor do I want to hear that Andy and Roger didn't make their minds up fast enough so we missed out on free agents because we put all our eggs in one basket. McLane enjoys having AIS and if there is any hope that Roger comes back he needs to go out and sign some players and get ready for the run back to the playoffs.

 

That's what I've been preaching. A-Rod along with another starting pitcher would guide us straight to the playoffs next season. Production from there is all in they're hands.

 

The Yankees won't make a demand for Lidge... they'll seek out Troy Patton first, Jason Hirsh second, Hunter Pence third, and Morgan Ensberg 4th before they'd take Lidge (unless it was to keep him from Boston... who also won't give up much for him).

That being said, its also in the Astros best interest for Lidge to be on this team next year. I'm not saying he should be a deal-breaker... and I'm also not saying that Wheeler can't handle the job... its just that I don't see enough quality arms in the bullpen to make it through the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings if Wheeler is set for the 9th.

You can win with good young starting pitching, a solid bullpen, and a timely offense... see the Tigers. If A-rod is available... offer Ensberg (they'll need a third baseman) + any young prospect the Yankees covet, or get another team involved which could use a 3B.

 

We need to just load up our team with bats so we can be as awesome as the Yankees. I'm pretty sure they took some BBS advice and "just went out and got another bat," a few times. Damon...Abreu...

Meanwhile, they can't get anybody out. So when the bats have an off night, they're out of the game. Sounds like a perfect plan.

I can't tell you how satisfying it is for me to watch a team like that lose.

 

What do you guys think of this three way deal?

Yankees:
Acquire - Dontrelle Willis
Trade - ARod

Florida:
Acquire - Jason Hirsh, Chris Burke, (mid level pitching prospect)
Trade - Dontrell Willis

Houston:
Acquire - ARod
Trade - Jason Hirsh, Chris Burke, (mid level pitching prospect)

 

The Marlins would probably want a guy who's a little younger than Burke... but this trade would make sense.

Then again, why don't we just trade for Dontrelle ourselves? He'd probably have a bigger impact than A-rod next year (and have a longer career here)... and hell, he can swing the bat too.

 

Papelbon, Theo et al have said, will be moving to the starter's role BECAUSE of his shoulder. Bosox have little to offer for Lidge NOW but after they deal Manny to LA of A and Loretta somewhere they'll have some new pieces to fit in a Lidge deal.

IMHO Bosox want BL and 'stros want out of his soon to be high salary (in favor of Wheeler).

Locals must sign a free agent stick because they'll have need for their tradables to bring in other help.

 

He'd probably be able to protect LB in the line-up every day, inc his starts!

 

I DO NOT want ARod! We need Dontrelle. Less money, bigger contributions from a starting pitcher giving you 200+ innings than any single hitter hitting .330.

Burke is your second baseman, that is an upgrade. Biggio has to be the utility reliever that plays 4-5 days a week, spelling everybody, essentially him and Burke switching roles. Get Pettitte re-signed. Why sign WW if we can get Andy? Then go after a hitter.

If we were able to trade some prospects for Dontrelle, that would add about $5 million to our payroll. Then if we were able to re-sign Pettitte, that is a wash from last year. You've got raises coming for some of the guys. But we should still have $10-$13 million per to throw at a big time hitter. But you've got to have two primo pitchers to go along with Roy O, otherwise we are just wasting money. Quality starting pitching is the single most important factor in the building of a team these days. Especially in our ballpark, where you can get practically any Punch and Judy hitter to knock it out of here. We have to have more hitting but we can't get that hitting at the price of running average to poor starting pitchers out there. You have to have at least three, because when you get to the playoffs, you are typically going up against 3 quality starters (St. Louis this year would be an exception to that rule. Of course, look how weak the division was.)

Dontrelle at his current salary is a steal. You've got to figure out the prospect package and get it done. I am even open to giving them Hirsch at this point. Dontrelle is young and he is an established #1, going right into his prime. If we had to piece together guys like Sampson and somebody else (Bucholz) at #5, I think it would be worth it to have Roy O, Dontrelle, and either Pettitte or Zito at the top of your pitching rotation. Jared, I'd love to have Zito at $12 million per (Pettitte's money), but just can't see that happening. I would bet the Yankees or Cardinals, some team like that, will offer him $15-$16 million per.

But, this all starts with getting Dontrelle. He is the cheapest top quality starter available. You get him and then you get a hitter and another pitcher.

 

If I recall, the last time we sent a slider slinging RP to Boston, it worked out pretty well.

 

I hear you... I've always preached the pitching first motto, and a lot of this off-season is still dependent on whether or not Pettite re-signs (regardless of what else happens).

Obviously, if the team believes they can get Dontrelle, they should go for it... but, something tells me they'll have more competition for him. EVERYBODY needs young, lefty, starting pitching... i'm not sure if the Astros could give the Marlins the best offer. Additionally, the Marlins would be less receptive to our everyday players/Lidge in favor of younger, more MLB-ready prospects.

However, with A-rod, the team may not face as much competition... there aren't that many contending teams with as many holes in their lineup as the Astros that may be willing to take the risk of trading good prospects/everyday players for him. Additionally, we seem to have the perfect mix of capable young starting pitching prospects, along with some historically productive expendable everyday guys (Ensberg, Lidge) that could get a deal done with NY.

In the end, I'd like to see their names in one of the two trading pools. Hell, we don't even know if the Yankees are going to want to trade A-rod... he'll have to suck it up and rescind his no trade clause if they do, but we're still a ways away from all of that coming together.

First things first... re-sign Pettite before Steinbrenner makes a personal trip to his house and offers him his monument park plaque, along with half of NYC, if he agrees to come back.

 

Although it would be nice to have A-Rod and he does put up great umbers during the regular season, he is complete postseason bust. It hurt us in playoff runs in the past when key contributers such as Ensberg or Bagwell did not show up for the playoffs. We had depended on those type of player all year and when it came to playoff time, tey could not handle it.

 

The biggest problem the Astros have right now is getting to the playoffs... without depending on monumental comebacks at the ends of seasons, or other team's choking down the stretch.

In the miniscule sample size that is the playoffs... you cannot tell me who is a "great playoff hitter" and who isn't based on A-rod's lack of production for the Yankees. Additionally, Jason Lane and Chris Burke have had great playoff success... are you going to tell me those guys are born to hit in the post-season?

Lance Berkman was also horrible in 2001... but the last two years he's looked like the second coming of Mr. October.

The bottom line is... ARod's lack of success as a Yankee in the 05 and 06 playoffs will NOT deter me from wanting the Astros to get him. Also, if you actually look up his playoff numbers, he was AWESOME in Seattle, and had a great divisional series in 04 with the Yankees.

His overall playoff numbers before this year show he's a .305 hitter with 6 HR's in 6 post-season series where he was actually an everyday player.

 

Im in Boston right now...so imagine how fun it is to be at a sports bar with a bunch of Sox fans...watching the Yanks get their asses handed to them. Good times.

 

He's bad int he post season as a Yankee. Houston is a whole new atmosphere that he might absolutely dominate. Crawford boxes? A-Rod Boxes.


Make it happen.

 

You cannot draw any substantial conclusions from sample sizes as small as 46 at-bats. You just can't. That's what people tried to do with Barry Bonds before the 2002 postseason, and take a look at how that turned out. Baseball is a sport where players routinely have fluke seasons of 500-600 ABs... and a sport where even the best players go through slumps (Berkman went 5-40 something in a stretch last month). 46 at-bats isn't anywhere close to enough evidence to draw conclusions.