Odom's Contact There's lots of talk about acquiring Odom and how he'd fit in with the Rockets and how much we should give up to acquire him. To me the biggest question that needs to be answered about Odom is "What do we do about his contract situation". Here's the current situation with Odom in LA: He's got one year left on his rookie scale contract and he's eligible to sign and extention this summer. The Clippers are hesitant to offer him a big money, long term deal due to his injuries and off court problems. Because of that, they are in the situation of either having to trade him this year or waiting until next offseason and taking the chance of losing him for nothing. Now, let's say that acquire Odom in some trade for the #1 pick. What are we suppose to do about his contract? In my opinion here's our options: 1) We immediately sign him to a big money, long term deal. It might not have to be a max contract, but it would be fairly close. Anything lower, then it is more advantageous for him to play next year, raise his value and then pump up his asking price on the open market. I don't believe that we could get him to sign an extention for mid-level type money. If he was willing to do that, then he could stay in LA. Personally, there's no way that I'd give Odom a long term deal right now. There's simply too many question marks. 2) We don't offer him the big money extension, but instead wait until next offseason to try to resign him. Of course, then we run the risk of him leaving as a FA. If we do wait to try to resign him, how can that play out? What if he has a down year next year? Normally, you would expect that we'd be able to sign him for a lower salary. But,there will be several teams that have ALOT of cap space next summer. They've been preparing to make a run at Duncan and McDyess. Once Duncan and McDyess are off the board, those teams are going to be sitting there with alot of money to spend and history tells us that they will then overpay to get players (see Tim Thomas, Ron Mercer). So, there's the possibility that even if Odom has a down year, somebody will be attracted by his potential enough to pay him big bucks. We're then faced with the choice of letting him go for nothing or overpaying to keep him. What if he has a good year next year? Then he'll be one of the more in demand free agent's next year and teams will be offering him the max. Now our choices are to max him out or risk losing him for nothing. To me, there's just too many bad outcomes there where we end up either overpaying Odom or we end up losing him to free agency. Giving up the #1 pick requires much more certainty than an Odom deal would bring. The only way I'd even consider trading for Odom was if we were convinced that he deserves a big money long term deal right now. Otherwise, we put ourselves in the same bad situation that Clippers find themselves in right now. So, for all those folks that think that we should trade for Odom, how do you think that we should handle his contract situation? PS. I know that I spelled Contract wrong in the title!
THANK YOU I need an answer to this question before i pull the trigger on these deals If he would take a Mobley contract . . . I'd be all in there Rocket River
I still think we should trade for Odom, it would make are team very interesting. Odom is a good at passing the ball, has good handles and dribbling skills and he is 6-10. He could get 6 ast a game with the Rockets, and allow us to play him a pg for a different feel. If we can get Odom, #8, #12 and maybe next years 1st round pick from the Clippers for our #1 and Rice than it will be foolish to pass on it.
Thank you very much. Nevermind the fact that we could not sign him to a big dollar deal without going over the limit designated for the luxury tax. Franchise, Cato, MoTa, Rice, probably EG, to a lesser extent Cat and KT.
How much would you pay him? 9 mil a year? 10? 12? add the price tag to the #8 and #12 How much closer to the championship are we? are we closer than if we just drafted Ming and someone with the #15 Rocket River
I would be happy with a 6 year deal for 48 mil. If that is to low I would even do a 6 year deal for 54 mil. And I think with a line up of Francis\Mobley\Obom\Taylor\Cato\6th man Griffin would have a very good shot at the playoffs. All those players except for Cato could go off and score 20 or more points in a game.
I don't know, but somehow the image of ten guys crawling on the floor looking for one of Lamar Odom's contacts during a game brings a smile to my face. As for his contract, I don't think we can sign him and Steve, unless we dump one of our big contracts, which isn't likely
aelliot is my hero! I honestly do not think Odom is worth the #1 even if it did net us the 8 and 12. You don't give up the number 1 in a trade unless you are getting something very, VERY secure in return. What you have with the #1 pick is more than a player. You are getting all the hype and media, nevermind the possibilities and choices. Giving that up for a guy coming off of injuries and suspensions who happens to be in the last year of his contract and you aren't sure he is worth the max that it might take to keep him is really suspect.
I agree. Before we won the lottery, I was saying to myself that the Clippers have weakened Odom's value, and they are just going to have to accept the #5 straight up for him, or package the #8 in any deal for our #5+roster players. Anything involving the #1 for Odom seems like a huge reach to me. We are just going to have to land Odom without giving up the #1. This team cannot win with Cato and average offensive PFs. Placing huge stock in Griffin's offense and possibly drafting a Cato replacement at #8, just adds more risk to Odom, rather than finding another trade for the #1 or just keeping it. btw aelliott: although the headline title box is grey in the thread submit screen, it is still editable for the same time period the body text is.
I think you are overestimating the value of the #1 pick. Trading for Odom isn't like trading for Brand, whom you know will work hard and give you 20 and 10 night in and night out. He doesn't give you that kind of security. But the #1 doesn't give you that kind of security either. In fact, this year you have less security than usual (for the Rockets at least) because there are so many questions about Yao Ming. Keeping the pick is not the safest path -- which I think is exactly what Mobley had been arguing: take someone's who has proven something over someone who is a good bet. Odom has at least proven that he is one of the most talented players in the league even if there are question marks about his persona. As for what to pay Odom, I would expect the Rockets to give him the extension this offseason. It would seem out of character for the Rockets to let a guy hang like that. They didn't let Cato hang; they extended him right away. The salary cap won't be an issue. The luxury tax wouldn't be an immediate concern either. If we're unloading Rice in the process, the net effect on payroll should be pretty small. Plus, we're also losing the salaries of Willis (3) and Williams (5) this year. I think we may well be able to field the team without breaching the luxury tax limit, even if we signed Odom to the max. The core 8 guys that we can expect to have the season after next will cost about $47.5 million. That leaves -- what? -- $8 million under the luxury tax for the remaining 4 to 7 players. Francis: 10.6 Odom: 10.6 Mobley: 5.4 Griffin: 3 Cato: 7.3 Taylor: 7.5 Norris: 3? #15 pick: 2
Larry Coon says the Luxury Tax will not kick in this year. And who wants to bet it never does if Yao has even a Rik Smits quality career. The BRI will go through the roof, eliminating any threat of a Luxury Tax, nearly guaranteed.
Juan V, I'm not really concerned about whether we can pay Odom the max and still stay under the luxury tax. My concern is tying up that kind of money in a guy who has so many outstanding questions about him. Also, I wouldn't assume that we'd be able to dump a bad contract on the Clips in an Odom deal. They've got to resign their own guys and I can't see them taking on unneccessary contracts. Also, everybody on their roster makes less than $5M, so they'd have to send us a couple of players to match up to Rice. Them taking Taylor back is out of the question.
aelliott-That's the grand question, that I'm not sure any of us here can answer. Rudy/CD are a pretty good judge of character...remember, perceived character problems is the only reason Griffin is a Rocket. I wouldn't completely mind waiting a year on giving Odom a long term contract...we'd have his full bird rights, and I think there's very little doubt to his on court abilities...if he stays out of trouble, you're talking about a 22 year old 18-7-6 type of player, who can get 1.5 blocks and a steal a game- a lot better than giving the max to Rashard "dribbling? passing? defense?" Lewis.
Good post guys. I think I would wait and see on Odom, no need to sign him to a long term big money deal right away. DaDakota
<i>I wouldn't completely mind waiting a year on giving Odom a long term contract...we'd have his full bird rights, and I think there's very little doubt to his on court abilities...if he stays out of trouble, you're talking about a 22 year old 18-7-6 type of player, who can get 1.5 blocks and a steal a game- a lot better than giving the max to Rashard "dribbling? passing? defense?" Lewis</i> Yeah, but what if he doesn't stay out of trouble? Then you'll have to either overpay him or lose him for nothing. That's a pretty big gamble to take. If we're wrong on that one, we set our rebuilding back greatly. The question isn't whether it's smarter to pay big money to Odom over Lewis. The real question is whether it's smarter to pay near max money to Odom or pay $3M to a potential franchise center. To me, Ming has the greater up side and less downside (as strange as that sounds) and Ming fills many more of our needs than does Odom.
A franchise center is the hardest thing to get your hands on in the NBA. When was the last time a center with really good size and skills was available in the draft? Go back and look at the last 10 drafts. Now show me a center that went in the top 5 spots that was a more sure thing than Ming. Of course there are questions about him. Hell there were questions about Shaq when he came out. That doesnt lesson the value of the #1 pick. Ming is 21 years old 300 lbs and 7'5", has an excellent shot and very good passing skills. (according to the scouts and GM's that have seen him) I think you under estimate the value of Ming's potential.
Potential Downsides as I see them: Drug use: Odom has a history of it and no especially good reason to think he'll stop. However, he's only been caught for mar1juana which is only lightly punished by the league. Moreover, I doubt it has a very significant effect on a player's on-court effectiveness. There is a danger of him getting into heavier drugs. There is also the possibility that he abandons drug-use. Don't know anything about Yao Ming on this question. My guess is that he probably does not use any drugs. But, I don't know and I don't know if he'll start once he gets here. Yao's the safer bet on this score. Immaturity: Odom has a bit of a history here as well, which is not surprising considering his age. The trend is to grow out of such things and, Rodman notwithstanding, I'd expect him to. Hanging out with young friends like Mobley and Francis could serve to mutually reinforce such behavior in one another, though the same effect will occur on both teams regardless. Plus, how much is just the Clipper Effect? Mo Taylor didn't seem too mature when he was Clipper; it was as if his career didn't really start until he left. Again, we don't know much about Yao in this regard either, but, if the media is to be believed, he is a driven, ambitious young man. Plus, given that he'll be a fish out of water, he's more likely to focus on his goals. Of course, he may react badly to the wealth and culture in the NBA. Yao's the safer bet. Injury: Odom missed some games this year with injury. But, he doesn't have enough of a track record to call him injury-prone. Yao doesn't have a track record either. However, it is generally not good for one's health to be 7'5". I would not be surprised if he had foot, joint or heart problems in his career. Odom's the safer bet. Obligations to the Chinese Government: Odom has no obligations to the Chinese. He'd probably have trouble even entering the country. The chance he'd rather play in a foreign league is next to zero. Yao already has some obligations to the CBA and the Chinese National Team. They won't take him away for the regular season in general, though. He will miss his first preseason and maybe all of them. His status also is at the whim of every Sino-American incident. If Bush backs Taiwan or a spy is caught or we invade North Korea or any of a host of completely unforeseeable things we could likely lose Yao with no compensation. Then, what happens after the 2008 Olympics? Will he still be available? Not to mention that Yao has a viable option back home if he doesn't like the NBA for whatever reason. Odom is the safer bet. Talent There is no question that Odom is a top player playing in the NBA. His statistics are obscene. He would be the first or second option for any team in the league. He does many things well and nothing so badly as to be an embarrassment. Talent-wise, Odom is can't-miss. Yao has a freakish body that is bound to give him some unusual advantages over the rest of the league. He also has some skills that are surprising in a person of his size (things that would not be remarkable in Odom's body, it seems). His stats in the CBA are obscene. But, he's never played in the NBA and it is only conjecture just how good he might be. The only guys you could compare him with apples to apples are Wang and Bateer, neither of whom got many minutes in the NBA. He might be better than Odom, about the same, or worse, who knows. Odom is the surer bet. Chemistry Odom is already friends with the core members of the Rockets which should help things along. While they might be reluctant to pass to Langhi, it doesn't seem they won't pass to Odom. They respect him. They seem to think their styles will mesh alright. There is a danger of fostering a clique (though if the clique grows big enough, that's ok). Yao has no social interaction with any of these guys. His outside shooting should open the middle for Mobley and Francis which should make them happy. However, some tension has already been demonstrated in that they'd rather have Odom. How will Yao take Mobley's interview? How will Francis and Mobley take it? Do they respect him? Do they trust him? Do they suffer the same xenophobia some Yao-bashers have demonstrated? Will they pass the ball to him? Will Yao's development be hindered by being frozen out of the clique or can his ability force the rest of the team to include him? Odom is the surer bet. Cost Odom will cost us probably 7 spots in the draft (lose the #1 but gain the #8 or something). Plus, he'll cost up to $10+ million a year for 7 years on an extension. This will cost Les a pretty penny (I don't care), have little effect on the salary cap (we'll be way over with Francis' deal; though it may be hard to blow up the team if we have to start over). It will push us closer to the luxury tax and may inhibit trades if Les doesn't want to go into tax territory. If Odom doesn't work out at all, he could be a salary albatross to put Cato to shame. Yao will cost the #1 pick and about $4+ million a year for four years. Even if he's a bust, that's a cheap salary for a center and the contract isn't too too long. Yao is the surer bet. Flight Risk If we don't extend Odom this summer, he's a flight risk. As has been correctly pointed out, there will be plenty of money on the market when he becomes an FA, which will hurt our bargaining position whether he plays well or not. I think extending him this summer is the obvious way to go. Odom won't want to gamble his value on a single season on a new team in which he might be injured again. He'll want an extension. Then he, or equivalent value, is locked up for 8 years (for better or worse) and we hold his Bird Rights (and probably the schools of his children) as a card to re-sign him. Yao will sign for 4 years, we extend for 1 year and then have a restriction and his Bird Rights in his 6th year. That pretty much assures 6 years of service as long as we still want him -- though he could make things very unpleasant if he wanted to leave. After that, does he want to stay? It may become home to him but the team he signs with as an FA is not his decision alone. And many of the entities making the decision are not motivated by Yao's salary nor Yao's happiness. Odom is the somewhat surer bet. * If we were to rank these items as I deem them important, Odom would get 25 points while Yao gets 11. Obviously, that's a very rough tool to use. 8. Talent --> Odom 7. Cost --> Yao 6. Chemistry --> Odom 5. Obligations --> Odom 4. Injury Risk --> Odom 3. Drug Use --> Yao 2. Flight Risk --> Odom 1. Immaturity --> Yao On a wholly subjective scale of perceived importance and degree of disparity, Odom gets 22 points while Yao gets 14. 8. Obligations --> Odom 7. Cost --> Yao 6. Chemistry --> Odom 5. Immaturity --> Yao 4. Talent --> Odom 3. Injury Risk --> Odom 2. Drug Use --> Yao 1. Flight Risk --> Odom
