So I get what you are saying about Yuli having no trade value, but when someone says no trade value I typically think- nothing of value coming back. If the Astros can’t move off Yuli, a productive player on a fair deal, without having to attach value that’s an indictment on the rest of the league imo.
I'm not sure if White can be traded or not. I'd expect his value should be around J.D. Davis's value before the season. Davis sucked more last year in a longer sample than White has this year, and has never hit as well as White has from 2017-2019. That said, I don't understand bad teams. There is little chance he makes it to the NL through waivers. The Marlins have no hitting. Their roster has plenty of space to try a bunch of reclamation projects, and a reclamation project is likely worth more than a lottery ticket/relief pitching prospect. Though, Marlins are stupid so I'm not sure if they would offer even a lottery ticket or a relief pitching prospect.
Anyone worried that Yordan hits "too" many homers to the opposite field? Wondering if he can turn and pull the ball. Just don't want him to come up and MLB pitchers bust him inside constantly and he can't pull the ball.
Yuli’s $47.5/5yr deal was fair overall, but this year and next he is unlikely to be worth his contract. Hes been basically replacement level this season, and he’s about to turn 35. He’s degraded to the point where he is just a league average bat who can play 1B/3B passably. He still does a great job of avoiding strikeouts, and can also serve as an emergency option at 2B and LF. So he has value, but if he were a free agent after this season, he’d probably be looking at a 1 year deal for less than $5M.
Davis has a MUCH higher upside than White. Davis can actually play 3B or LF everyday and not be terrible. He also has elite power that easily projects to 30+ HR if it clicks. White had a better overall offensive profile but his defensive limitations really lower his value especially to NL teams. Add in that he turns 29 this year and has sucked this year, and there’s only a handful of teams that he can realistically play for. In Miami’s case, they’d have to cut or move Neil Walker, who has been their best hitter this season and whom I’m sure they’re hoping can be a trade chip at the deadline. White just doesn’t carry the upside to make him worth more than a waiver claim, if that. Edit: I feel it bears mentioning that prior to this season I was a big supporter of White’s; I thought he’d put up several years of excellent (130wRC+) offense and be a good everyday 1B/DH. But his approach this year has changed my mind and his leash was never going to be long enough to get past 200+ pa of a 30%+ k rate.
What teams out there would trade for Gurriel? What teams out there would trade for White? (Keeping in mind what you can get out there in guys like Gattis as free agents right now) In terms of Gurriel/Reddick, I do think this team looks at team chemistry and values things like that. They might move those guys in the offseason, but I'm not sure they trade them midseason to clear space. Going back to 2015, I don't think they've traded any full-time type players from the team during the season.
I'd think a team needing a 1B/3B is who might target Gurriel, but right now that is pretty limited. Only a bad team would likely trade for White, and it would be basically for nothing.
This is why I'm not sure White can be traded. Davis has more power which gives the perception he has more upside. White from 2017-2019 has been a Top 50 batter in RC+ (minimum 300 PAs). What White has done over basically half a season sample in 2017-2019 (i.e., a realistic upside for White) is basically about 25% better than Davis's current projections. On Miami, Walker can play 2B or 3B. Not sure why he's not if they are trying to trade him...well other than it being Miami.
That's sort of my point. For Gurriel, your market is: * Contending team * In need of a 0.700-0.750 OPS 1B or 3B Right there, you've probably eliminated just about everyone, but then you also have: * No prospects ready to try in your system or cheap free agents (Evan Gattis, etc) that can provide those numbers * Willing to be stuck with him next year I would argue the market for Gurriel is zero. Someone might take a flier on White, but you'll get a marginal prospect at best. Trying to get value for him is not worth anyone's time.
If the Astros viewed White as not having value and not being worth their time, the Astros would have cut him already and brought up another reliever. They may still do this, but so far they have kept him.
Of course the Astros have their thoughts and reasons. I disagree with them - or at least, I will once super-two deadline passes. I'm fine with keeping Alvarez down until that point since there's a significant benefit to it. From Buck's post earlier, best guess on at that is about a week from now, and you probably want to put in some buffer since there's some guesswork. So my opinion is that White should be gone around June 1st, barring anything significant with the Astros (injuries, etc).
I’d think he ends up as a 1 war guy and his deal next year is only $8 million, right? Play a bunch of different positions. Solid veteran presence that is revered by young Cubans and I’d think most of the Caribbean Spanish speaking population. That seems like the kind of guy I might want if I was a contending type not as stacked as the Astros, or if I was striving for some modicum of professionalism in my rebuild cycle, or if Inwas hoping to catch lightning in a bottle and compete like say the twins this year, or the reds, or the pirates etc. and it’s only a 1 year deal. If there were no actively tanking teams there should be 12 or 16 teams that would view him favorably for those reasons. You are probably right but I just don’t like a world where Reddick and Guriel are considered people you can’t give away. They are pros pros on reasonable deals in their walk years (talking about trading them this off-season obviously).
moneyball Luhnow doesn't want to sell low on White, so let him try and rebuild his value while the rest of the roster carries the team not fun but perhaps the right call long term
Love Gurriel. Want him in the lineup come playoff, and if he comes up in a clutch at bat, I'm good. No pitcher feels safe with him at the plate in those moments.
Just another point of order: the $206M tax barrier is not a hard one, it's very, very soft. You don't get into painful penalties for another 20-40M. And that only happens when you go over the threshold in multiple years. There is nothing, nothing, that prevents the Stros from adding payroll this season. Yall carry on.
You are correct.... nothing prevents the Astros from adding payroll and going over the luxury tax. Except an interview with the owner saying they won't go over the luxury tax..... "I'd say if the right situation came along -- certainly we're not going over [the luxury-tax threshold] -- but we could move closer to that," Crane said. "We were pretty high up in the food chain last year. A lot of teams realize the penalty is pretty severe if you go over. We'll stay within the strike zone."
206 is the bare minimum. I hope you understand where it goes from there. There's about a $20-40M buffer until the tax really matters, and that has to hit 2 years in a row to be really a problem. Crane has money as needed.
I agree with you conceptually. I’d rather not go over the tax this year needlessly though, as there might be a year or two where it makes sense to go over to extend CC and GS before Verlander deal comes off the books. Might be more palatable in 21 or so if it’s a one year over and back and we aren’t repeaters.
I had my doubts about them paying Springer but I'm starting to think that the two sides will work something out. Correa is different as I feel he will be happy to go into the open market. Would love to get him to ink a deal too though.
