1. Paolo Banchero | Forward/Big [PF] | 6’10” 250 | Duke | Fr. | 19 (Age for 2022 Draft) I have doubts about all of the Top 3 guys, but Banchero gets the nod at #1 because it’s nearly impossible to see him not becoming a stud offensive player. If he keeps developing, he should produce better in the pros than at Duke and can become a go-to guy who excels at all 3 levels. Now whether he becomes more than an average defender is another question, but in terms of star-power, he edges out Smith and Holmgren, who have more balance of offense/defense. 2. Jabari Smith Jr. | Forward [PF] | 6’10” 220 | Auburn | Fr. | 19 Smith is the hottest name right now, and it’s not hard to see why – he’s a knockdown shooter at 6’10” and has the physical tools to be an asset on both ends. My doubts with him center around his offensive game outside of shooting, as he isn’t very developed as an interior scorer or a ball-handler (though he certainly could add those). Defensively he won’t anchor a defense, but his versatility and length should fit in anywhere. 3. Chet Holmgren | Big/Forward [PF/C] | 7’0” 195 | Gonzaga | Fr. | 20 Holmgren might be the safest bet of the Top-3 if we’re looking purely at production/fit, as he projects to be a weakside monster on D (7'5" wingspan) and a versatile big who can P/R or P/Pop. But it’s hard for me to call him “safe,” largely because of his frame – I’ve never seen any top player/prospect as thin as him. Whether we’re talking about injuries (which he’s avoided) or just banging inside with NBA Cs, it’s hard not to be a little wary. 4. Jaden Ivey | Guard [PG/SG] | 6’4” 195 | Purdue | Soph. | 20 Ivey is the top G by default in a class lacking in elite guard-play. But that’s not a knock on him – as his explosiveness in transition is up there with a select few prospects in recent years. He’s not a pure point, and his 3-ball isn’t elite (he’s capable), but his ability to create looks for himself and others at any time should be an asset to any team. His motor is also impressive, and he projects as a plus defender. 5. AJ Griffin | Forward/Wing [SF] | 6’7” 225 | Duke | Fr. | 18 There aren’t many prospects as divisive as Griffin, who’s come off the bench and played a complementary role on Duke for most of the year. But in watching him, it’s hard not see the upside – he’s a big wing with long arms (7’0”+ wingspan), lateral agility, a strong frame and the ability to get to the rim (and finish) when he wants – even in the packed CBB paint. His range/versatility on D is high-level, and is a solid catch-and-shoot guy as well. He is coming off missing significant time with injuries, and this has seemingly affected his aggressiveness, but that seems to be coming back. 6. Bennedict Mathurin | Wing [SG/SF] | 6’6” 210 | Arizona | Soph. | 20 Mathurin checks most of the boxes you’d want in a swingman – he’s long (6’11” wingspan), with plus athleticism and a great jumper. I’m not sure if I see a big-time star, but I definitely can see him developing into an efficient 18-22ppg guy with above average defense. He also gets bonus points for one of the smoothest forms on his J I’ve seen from a prospect. 7. Kendall Brown | Forward [SF/PF] | 6’8” 210 | Baylor | Fr. | 19 Brown’s production has dipped a bit, and for a guy who has some Q marks on his offensive development, that is somewhat concerning. But for most of the year, he’s been a hyper-efficient, low-USG guy whose elite athleticism shined in transition and on defense. He’s also an underrated passer who knows how to make quick reads. His rawness as a shooter/ball-handler needs to be monitored, but I think he’s going to be an asset regardless. 8. Johnny Davis | Wing [SG] | 6’5” 195 | Wisconsin | Soph. | 20 Here’s a guy that rose into the top-10 out of seemingly nowhere. I’m hesitant to put him in the Top-5 like some, as he doesn’t jump off the page physically, as a shooter or as a 2-way player (though he’s solid-to-good in all 3 areas). I can’t deny that he’s been one of the best players in CBB, and showing he can handle high-USG on a top team is impressive. I think he projects as a great complementary scorer on a team with a true #1. 9. TyTy Washington | Guard [PG/SG] | 6’3’ 190 | Kentucky | Fr. | 19 Washington has gotten better as the season has progressed, as a smooth operator from either guard spot. His jumper and efficiency have been great, and his physical tools/athleticism are solid enough. He doesn’t project as an elite playmaker, but he looks to be the type of G any team could use – one without any glaring weaknesses, even if he doesn’t jump off the page in terms of measurables. 10. Keegan Murray | Forward [PF/SF] | 6’8” 225 | Iowa | Jr. | 21 Murray has been arguably the best player in CBB this season, as a physical inside-outside threat from the 4-spot. 10-15 years ago, he’d be called a tweener, but in today’s game, his versatility would be an asset on any team – and it helps that he’s also active on defense. He may not have as much room to grow as most of the other lotto guys, but he looks to be pretty NBA-ready for a team that needs a rotation guy from day 1. -- Posting 11-30 in separate post (character limit)
11. Ousmane Dieng | Wing/Forward [SF] | 6’9” 195 | New Zealand | Intl. | 19 Dieng is the top international prospect for me for now, though admittedly I’ve watched less tape on most of them than I have the CBB prospects. Either way, it’s hard not to see Dieng’s upside as a 6’9” guy who handles/creates with ease, and projects as a versatile 2-way player. He’s struggled shooting so far this season in NZ, so I’ll be keeping an eye on that (as well as his thin frame) moving forward. 12. Jalen Duren | Big [C] | 6’10” 255 | Memphis | Fr. | 18 Duren got a little overrated to start the year, but it’s hard not to like his physical tools (7’5” wingspan) and defensive upside. He still has a lot of developing to do, especially on O, but on the right NBA team, he’d be a great long-term investment. 13. JD Davison | Guard [PG/SG] | 6’3” 185 | Alabama | Fr. | 19 Davison is an unusual prospect, as a guy who was billed as an explosive scorer in HS, but has been almost too unselfish in college. The upside is evident however – he’s explosive and shows upside as a shooter and defender. He might not come in and light the league on fire, but he also looks to be a high-upside guy. 14. Nikola Jovic | Forward [PF/SF] | 6’10” 215 | Serbia | Intl. | 19 As with Dieng, I haven’t watched a ton of Jovic so far this year. But I have seen a good amount of offensive skill in him for a 6’10’ Forward. 15. Dyson Daniels | Guard [SG/PG] | 6’5” 185 | G-League | Fr.* | 19 Daniels has been better than his more hyped teammate (Hardy) so far, showing upside as a creator with size. 16. Yannick Nzosa | Big [C/PF] | 6’11” 205 | Congo | Intl. | 18 Nzosa is as mobile as they come for a big man (granted he’s also very thin). As with the other international guys, I need to watch some full games of his. 17. Jeremy Sochan | Forward [PF/SF] | 6’9” 230 | Baylor | Fr. | 19 One of the more underrated prospects in CBB to me, as he gets overlooked with his teammate, a fellow Freshman combo-Forward Kendall Brown, getting more attention. But in just watching Sochan, it’s impossible not to see the 2-way upside, as he’s an oversized guy with athleticism, some perimeter skill, and a ton of defensive upside. He’s still early in his development, but I could see him rising higher than this, especially after workouts. 18. Jean Montero | Guard [PG] | 6’3” 180 | France | Intl. | 19 Another international prospect. Montero’s quickness and P/R upside are enticing, but I also would like to watch more of him. 19. Patrick Baldwin Jr. | Forward [PF/SF] | 6’10” 225 | Milwaukee | Fr. | 19 Baldwin has been disappointing in his time on the floor playing in a mid-major conference. His appeal as a shooter/scorer for a 6’10’ guy is still there, but he was inefficient and streaky at best to start the year. 20. Jaden Hardy | Guard/Wing [SG] | 6’4” 190 | G-League | Fr.* | 20 Another high-ranked guy who’s been inefficient/disappointing this year. He clearly still has range and scoring upside but hasn’t shown a ton else. 21. Tari Eason | Forward [PF/SF] | 6’8” 225 | LSU | Soph. | 21 A prototypical modern combo-Forward with size. Eason should fit right in on most squads, but needs to improve his 3-ball consistency. His fluidity with his frame is impressive however. 22. Mark Williams | Big [C] | 7’0” 250 | Duke | Soph. | 20 Williams has been impressive to me and many others this season, and has even stood out over more heralded Duke teammates at times. His size/athleticism has always been great, but his motor and timing on both ends has improved a ton. 23. Ochai Agbaji | Wing [SG/SF] | 6’5” 215 | Kansas | Sr. | 22 Even though he’s been in college since forever, Agbaji is still a strong prospect – with a solid 2-way game for a wing, and a strong frame as well. He should come in and contribute right away. 24. Kennedy Chandler | Guard [PG] | 6’0” 180 | Tennessee | Fr. | 19 This year’s true-PG prospect who might slip because of his size. Either way, Chandler is advanced for a Frosh, and should fit in on any team looking for a floor-general (Rox?!) 25. Wendell Moore | Wing [SG/SF] | 6’5” 220 | Duke | Jr. | 20 Like Agbaji, Moore looks to be a 2-way plug-and-play wing who could help a number of teams right now. 26. Harrison Ingram | Forward [SF/PF] | 6’8” 225 | Stanford | Fr. | 19 A big SF who can score/handle like Ingram is pretty impressive at his age. He’s still inconsistent but the upside is there. 27. Christian Koloko | Big [C] | 7’1” 240 | Arizona | Jr. | 21 Koloko is a true C who projects as a strong rim-protector, even if he’s likely not going to be a 35mpg guy in the pros. 28. Blake Wesley | Guard/Wing [SG/PG] | 6’5” 190 | Notre Dame | Fr. | 19 Long combo guard whose stock as risen recently. His handle/J are still developing, but he shows upside on both ends. 29. MarJon Beauchamp | Wing/Forward [SF] | 6’6” 210 | G-League | Soph.* | 20 Athletic/long SF who looks like he could play 4 in small ball lineups at the next level. Some have him higher than this, but I’d like to see him improve his floor game. 30. Julian Champagnie | Forward [SF/PF] | 6’8” 215 | St. John’s | Jr. | 21 One of the more productive CBB guys for the past two seasons should get a good look as a versatile combo forward.
I like what I see from Nikola Jovic. Frankly he plays a lot better than the position you gave him in your draft.
Nice! I haven't done enough "scouting" to form a big board, so this was helpful. Ivey and Griffin sound like good consolation picks if the Rockets fall outside the top 3. I find myself flipping between the two as my #4. I know college production isn't the greatest barometer when comparing prospects, but Ivey's consistency is really nice to see, and numbers make my brain feel good lol. On the other hand, one look at Griffin and you understand the hype and upside. Freshman Ivey vs freshman Griffin, might be a more apt comparison, in which case i'm kinda leaning Griffin. Both are also sons of highly respected coaches, so I feel good about their maturity and understanding of the game. I've been seeing TyTy pop up in the top 10-15 on other peoples boards as well, which hurts cause I'm hoping he falls to the Rockets' later pick. Trying not to scout the school, but a highly ranked, Kentucky freshman guard with a first round grade has a good chance of being an NBA talent. Duren's stock is a little confusing. The measurables and frame are obvious, but coming into the season, there was some hype around his burgeoning shooting and passing (relative to his position). He hasn't really flashed either of those, but he's not in the best situation with Memphis' awful coaching and roster. Is there some untapped potential there? Or is this one of those cases where its weird not to have a center in the lottery so we just slotted the big name (see: Jaxson Hayes).
having watched a fair amount of college bball this year, i can honestly say, its seems like a very ho-hum class. Jabari seems the prize this year, though even he has a tendency to settle WAY too much for contested long jumpers... EXCEPT he's actually pretty good at hitting them. I know a couple of these guys will pop, we'll see some all star appearances from some of them, i just got no clue who really.
Tubelis plays a similar style to Domantas Sabonis. Also a better jumpshot and more athletic than Sabonis. But not as good of a rebounder. Both are pretty crafty passers. Hard to match Sabonis' motor and physicality though.
Duren really is confusing as a prospect. I think a majority of his stock is based on his HS ranking -- because objectively speaking, he doesn't jump off the page in many ways as a true-C prospect, and to be a Top-10 guy in the modern game as a true-C, you better have some range and/or be unusually fluid/explosive at 7'0"+. He is younger than others in his class, and is playing on a team with terrible ball-movement, so I do try to keep that in mind, but he honestly reminds me of a late-career Dwight Howard/Robert Williams (though not as vertically explosive as RW3). A well-built athlete who can man the paint on both ends, finish off the P/R, and not be a complete liability on switches (though he's definitely not going to excel there). The more I think about it, the more I want to slide him to the 15-20 range. Ivey on the other hand looks better the more I watch him. We all know about his explosiveness, but the fact that he plays downhill and attacks relentlessly, all while maintaining efficiency and not being overly mistake prone, is very impressive. I think with more room to operate with a more spread floor in the NBA, he'll take another leap production-wise. His jumper isn't ideal -- it's a low-release set shot, which looks funny for a guy as explosive as him, but it's not unlike Morant's/Schroder's, but he creates so much space that I think it won't be a problem, especially because he's going to be a driver first and foremost.
Embarassingly, while i was still positive on Mobley, a big part of the reason i had JG over him was because of this. Not this "one game" anecdote, but more the idea that bigs hadn't fared well in many drafts outside those with really crazy unique combo of size/skill/athleticism and i wasn't sold Mobley had it because when he finally went up against someone "competent" he got outplayed. Guess it was just random bad matchup lol.
Mobley still gets displaced a ton in the league and in his time at USC - his brother used to get the assignment of matching up with the physical players. He's a perimeter 7 footer and thats fine he plays that role well and is all around a very good basketball player, but is he going to be a star? We'll see. Tubelis made him look like a fool in their matchup and owned the paint - it was eye raising and turned me off completely. Same happened during the tournament on occasion. I'll be eagerly waiting for the playoffs to see how MObley fares against top tier front lines when the going gets tough. Hard to teach courage. Story is not over for Jalen either.
Quick Mock 1.Orlando – Jabari Smith Jr. | PF/SF | 6'10" 215 | Auburn | 18 Orlando has some youth, but no franchise guy, and Smith might be the most likely to become that. They'd have a ton of skilled size up front with Smith, Wagner and Isaac, if he returns. 2. Houston – Chet Holmgren | C/PF | 7'0" 195 | Gonzaga | 19 I'm still wary of his frame, but his defensive versatility/rim-protection would help tremendously, especially besides Sengun. Offensively, he'd work well as a P&R/P&P guy. 3. Detroit – Jaden Ivey | PG/SG | 6'4" 195 | Purdue | 20 Detroit needs help inside and out next to Cade, but I think Ivey would work great with him. He'd add much needed explosiveness and transition threat. Cade's size and steady play plus Ivey's ability to get into the paint would balance each other out. 4. Oklahoma City – Paolo Banchero | PF | 6'10' 250 | Duke | 19 OKC has their perimeter trio (SGA, Giddey, Dort), and could use help inside. Here they get one of the top-3 bigs, and Banchero has the most go-to upside of the bunch. 5. Indiana – AJ Griffin | SF | 6'6" 230 | Duke | 18 Indy is rebuilding, and Griffin would be a nice addition to their forward spots. He's a little earlier in his development than some of the other top guys, but has the physical tools and 2-way upside. 6. Sacramento – Bennedict Mathurin | SG/SF | 6'6" 210 | Arizona | 19 Mathurin gets the edge over Davis/Sharpe (for now) as my top wing, and he'd work out well here with Sabonis and Fox. He's a smooth shooter with a solid all around game. 7. San Antonio – Keegan Murray | PF | 6'8" 225 | Iowa | 21 SA has a bunch of guards/wings, but could use some help up front. Murray is a hyper-productive combo-F who would fit right into the rotation immediately. 8. New York – Tari Eason | SF/PF | 6'8' 220 | LSU | 20 NY wouldn't love this pick initially, but Eason is one of the most underrated guys in this class. He's a super-versatile F with size, handling ability and a ton of impact on defense. NY could use someone like him. 9. Portland – Johnny Davis | SG | 6'5" 205 | Wisconsin | 20 Portland has traded away McCollum and Trent in the past year, and a new SG next to Simons (assuming Lillard is out too) would be a good pick. Davis has shown go-to ability this season. 10. Portland (NOP) – Kendall Brown | SF/PF | 6'8" 210 | Baylor | 18 After grabbing a scorer in Davis, Portland can get a low-USG, versatile F in Brown to add to their rebuild. 11. Memphis (LAL) - Shaedon Sharpe | SG | 6'6' 205 | Kentucky* | 18 Who knows if he'll declare, but his raw talent is likely Top-5 worthy. Memphis can afford to take a swing on him, which could pay off in a big way down the road. 12. Washington - TyTy Washington | PG/SG | 6'3" 190 | Kentucky | 20 The Wizards are kind of a mess, but adding a steady combo-G in Washington would be a good addition for their future stability. 13. Atlanta – Dyson Daniels | SG/PG | 6'6" 185 | G-League | 18 Atlanta clearly needs some defensive help, and Daniels has some upside there. He can also become a secondary creator, which would help take a load off Trae. 14. Charlotte – Jalen Duren | C | 6'10" 255 | Memphis | 18 Charlotte's team is stacked with offensive players, but like ATL, they don't have a ton of defense either. Duren would give Ball and company a lob threat and a rim-protector.
Jalen has actually been outplayed many more times than Mobley has. Just stating the obvious. Basing your entire evaluation on an outlier?
Right now, he's unlikely to be drafted at all - I don't think he's in any mock drafts as a second round pick. I'm guessing he'll stay in Arizona for another year, unless he plays out of his mind during March Madness.
Entire evaluation? LOL what? Sheez you really go out of your way to look for conflict. Its a pretty obvious statement to say Mobley is not a physical player. Or is he now Shaq too on top of Kareem, Hakeem, Moses and Wilt? Kid looks pretty normal as of late if you ask me, but it doesnt mean I ever said at any point he was a bad player or anything like that. He can be criticized. He's not perfect. Here get ready for it hoss - HE'S A ROOKIE!!!! See how that works? 25% 3 point shooter??? Arent Unicorns supposed to be able to hit 3s? Maybe next year. All I know is that Jalen is closing the gap fast and it feels good. Jalen fans deserve this moment and if he finishes the year with this momentum and Mobley keeps sliding all you "bust" evaluators are the ones who will be scrambling for excuses. Its not how you start a career - its how you finish it.
Mobley is an elite defender. Only allows 0.68 per possession on isolated attempts. Opposing teams only converting 55% at rim vs Mobley, which is better than Goebert and Myles Turner. As a rookie, he is putting up DPOY level numbers. And you are right on one thing, Mobley will get even better. You already admitted that your bias against Mobley was based on watching him in one game vs a guy. I just agreed with you that it was a bad take, that game was obviously an outlier.
It's interesting. He's fallen out of the mock drafts, but advanced models still rate him very highly.
