The season is approximately half over and this is a good time to look at where the Rockets stand in their development. This isn’t measured entirely by record, but how the players are growing and the performance of the coaching staff and front office. I expect to get blasted, but I always try to be open minded but also honest with my evaluation. I am reviewing them based on the idea that they are prioritizing winning in the future and not now. First I will evaluate the player development of their roster with an eye on what I see or do not see as far as long term growth. To start with, I do not see anyone on the roster that will be good enough to lead a team deep into the playoffs. I see possible a couple all stars long term but there are no franchise players likely to emerge. Jalen Green has slid back to what I projected him to be before he was drafted. He is a very quick and explosive player that lacks the court vision to run a team and lacks the feel or competitiveness to make up for his size and defensive shortcomings. Credit to him, he has improved his ability to get to the line but that is about it. Defensively he is really bad and effort is at best inconsistent. His shooting also is very inconsistent but I expect that to stabilize in the next couple of seasons. He is still really raw in a lot of ways, so he may peak later than some others in his class. I expect him to be a 20-25 point a game scorer in his prime with solid steals and good enough defensively to play in crunch time. I compare him, impact-wise to Booker or Alexander. Kevin Porter Jr had improved to average defensively, which is a massive improvement over how he was entering the NBA. However, he is a poor playmaker and has a bad feel for the game. He tends to trade off possessions with Green and he really doesn’t play winning basketball. His effort is sporadic, his efficiency is middling and he makes a tremendous amount of errors on the court. He is miscast as a point guard or leader on the team. As was clear to everyone paying attention a year ago, he is best served in a Jamal Crawford type role where he can try to exploit bench players and his lack of efficiency isn’t a killer. Jabari Smith had a terrible start to the season and isn’t exactly tearing it up now. However, he has shown the most signs of improvement and impact. Defensively he has been hit or miss depending on match up and he clearly gets frustrated having Green and Porter in the backcourt defensively. Still, he has shown an aptitude to read offensives and react well, which really bodes well for his defensive impact long term. I don’t know if he will be a guy that is really good defensively one on one or a true stopper. Either way he will be a long-term defensive positive on a team that has a lot of physical limitations defensively. Offensively Smith has started finishing inside and hitting his two-point shots, which can be a big part in him transforming from an offensive role player to a secondary scorer on a really good playoff team. The shot from the perimeter is really inconsistent l, but like Green, it will improve with experience. Smith has also shown strong leadership ability, tends to play smart and has shown a strong work ethic. Alperen Sengun is the epitome of feast or famine. Offensively he has a very high upside. He has shown the ability to score, he passes well and sees the floor really well. He should score over 20 points a night if he learns to shoot from the outside. I am not quite as certain he will learn to shoot well, but it is still very possible. He can also operate as somewhat of a playmaker at times. He can run the PNR and has an aptitude for the game well beyond his backcourt. He is a solid, if not good, rebounder and he can push non vertical players out of space. The issue is the other side of the court, where he is really bad, and there-in lies the problem. He cannot defend in drop-coverage and he can get roasted on the perimeter. In order for him to be on the floor in playoff crunch time, he will need to be surrounded by elite defenders and the Rockets do not have them at this point. As long as the effort is there, he should avoid the fate of Enes Kanter, who profiles similarly. Kenyon Martin Jr. I don't have a lot to say about him. For all the discussions of improvement, I think he just has a better attitude and is getting more opportunities. He is a role player and will likely always be because of his ball handling. Someone will likely overpay for him in free agency because of the athleticism. Eric Gordon hasn't wanted to be a Rocket and it is an indictment on the Rockets front office and coaching staff that he hasn't been moved. Tari Eason is a lot like Wilson Chandler, if Chandler wanted to defend and not play hero ball. Eason has struggled with his confidence, especially on the offensive side. However, the ability still shines through. He isn't a slam dunk long term NBA player, but I have seen nothing to cause me to change my opinion on him. Josh Christopher needs to be traded. As for Stephen Silas, he inherited a tough job. He had to be a first-time head coach through COVID and a nasty rebuild. Having said that, he hasn't done a very good job and the top players have not developed as much as would be liked. There are a lot of reasons to criticize Silas. From basic issues, like not adapting his offense to fit the strengths of his team. His decision to give the point duties and leadership position to Kevin Porter Jr. is another poor decision. He also failed to really know how best to use Jabari Smith for the first 6 weeks of the season when it was pretty obvious to those that watched him in college. Further, there seems to be no logic to the playing time distribution and according to those around the team I have spoken to, discipline is lacking with Silas - with most of the players listening to the top two assistant coaches. Stephen Silas is a very nice man, and a top assistant coach but he has to be close to being fired. As for the GM, he (Stone) has for the most part avoided a lot of criticism. In fairness, I don't think he has been terrible, just quite average. If you start looking at his draft picks, he took Green over several players that are arguably as good or better prospects. Jabari Smith was a no brainer. Alpren Sengun is a mixed bag because his defense is at times unplayable. The Rockets passed on people like Q Grimes in the draft and Josh Christopher is toast in Houston. Overall, in the draft I would give him an average to slightly above average score. I think a lot of GM's would have taken Green and Smith, and the other picks have been mixed. The larger concern I have with Stone is the lack of culture and his inability to compete quality trades. Overall, the Rockets would benefit from a top two pick in this draft more than any other team. The Rockets need a franchise player, preferably inside and/or a real point guard to push Porter to the bench of off the team. Right now the pieces on the Rockets just don't fit.
I don't have a reason to "blast" you. Quite the opposite. Like I feel about the takes of @Clutch, @Lachard Binkley, and @vator on the podcast (which everyone should listen to) - https://rockets.clutchfans.net/12094/rocket-fuel-podcast/ - I largely agree with you. To sum it up at the end of the year, we are terrible as a team. Yes, it's one of the youngest in the league, but it's difficult to find positives as a team in how we play. Our offense is disjointed, in my opinion, with "offensive flow" difficult to find. The rotations of Coach Silas continue to be a mystery to me. He seems obsessed with playing Green and Porter together, with Porter playing the one, which hurts Green, in my opinion, as well as Porter, who isn't a point guard. Kevin should come off the bench as what I feel would be a righteous 6th man, and Jalen would play better with a one who's a natural at the position. Heck, the closest player we have to that is TyTy Washington. I'd be tempted to just toss him in there since we're losing anyway, but we finally have Tate. He'd be playing out of position, but so is Porter, and Tate's a better option running what passes as our offense, from the little I've seen. I'm not worried about Jabari. Yes, he's been a disappointment, especially his 3 point shooting, but I'm convinced that it'll come around and as you pointed out, he's growing as a leader, and I love seeing it. Leadership is badly needed on the Rockets, and while he thinks he's the answer, KPJ ain't it, and Green is definitely still finding his way. I like your comparison of Green to Booker, who's a hell of a player. I'll take that from Jalen, long term. I'm higher on Alperen Sengun than you are, for sure. Yes, as you and the guys on the podcast point out, his defense needs a lot of work. I find it bizarre, however, that Silas pulls Sengun in the 4th for Fernando, who's marginally better on defense, if that, and gives us nothing on offense. In my opinion, our offense is better when Alpi's on the court. Green plays better, in my opinion. An interesting stat. Sengun, in less minutes, averages a block a game, the same as Smith. How crazy is that? Nice post, @Nook.
Sengun's defense is being overblown and the metrics agree. On a contender he would need to be paired with a defensive ace in the front court, but currently on the worst team in the NBA he may actually be one of our best defenders when compared to the guards who are traffic cones. In terms of leading a playoff team, Jokic is the best player in the NBA, while Sengun will never get to that level he is better than Sabonis in every way at the same development curve. And Sabonis is the Kings best player and was just named top 25 player by the Ringer. Other players in this mold that never got played off the floor in the playoffs : Vlade Divac, Brad Miller, Kevin McHale Enes Kanter is really a lazy comparison consider Sengun has triple the assist rate, double the block and steal rate. Meaning he is an offensive hub and not a sieve on defense, things Kanter never was. The only similarities there are offensive rebounding and nationality.
I'll just make some notes on the most interesting stories to me: - I think we have three future top 30 players in the bag after two drafts (7 picks) and that's the floor not the ceiling. I consider that to be a heck of a return. I also think out of the other 4 players, 3 of them have an excellent shot at being good to elite role players. - I don't believe it's reasonable to rate Silas. I haven't seen any problems on his rebuilding team that I haven't seen on the others. No one has been able to show me a team as young as us who is doing it better while trying to get the #1 pick every year. As far as I'm concerned, I will find out early next season what Silas is capable of tactically. I suspect he's not an amazing coach, but I would not bet any money against us making the playoffs next season with him coaching. He has a strong staff, chose well. If he doesn't do well next season, onto the next one. - We have the youngest rotation in the NBA and I would bet one of the youngest of all time. They make a lot of dumb mistakes, miss obvious coverages and miss open shots too often. It has made a lot of people look bad. No surprises there. - Customary: Jalen Green is eventually going to compete for the scoring title and on good efficiency too. I'm so glad we have him. I think we will be able to build a championship contending offense around him in a couple of years. - Jabari will 100% have star-level statistical impact on winning. I see him as a modern Kevin Garnett, favoring the 3pt shot over the post. I do believe he will be a lockdown defender and compete several times for DPOY. He has started the season off as I expected and he is hurt by far the most by the poor offensive execution on this team. It is forcing him under the radar, but you can see him improving month to month. Love his attitude. Amazing we got him at #3. - KPJ, KPJ, KPJ. What do I say? To be honest, he doesn't do anything that we can't do by replacing him with a vet minimum player. The shots he takes would go to Green, Jabari and Sengun. The passes he makes would go to some vet PG and Tyty. He doesn't play defense. His passing has basically not improved for 2 years even when he was not a full time PG. He has to be disappointed in his progress this season. He should have matured his game a lot more by now. It's still worth developing him, but he should not have the keys to the offense because it's costing other people too. - Tari and Garuba I believe are going to be two of the best role players in the NBA from what I've seen. They will be part of our core. I love how they compete and with experience they're both going to get more poised on both sides of the court. - This roster badly needs to drop Gordon. If we're barely winning and he's whining and unhappy, there's no reason to have him around. Whatever he taught the young players, great that's enough. Tate can take over from here, has a great work ethic for these kids. - I still think we're going to have a major turnaround this season and all our assessments are going to look bad. Being as young as we are, our upward swing will be as wild as our downward spiral. These players are better than they look at this point in time. All of them.
I think that's a bit harsh on KPJ, but I don't necessarily disagree with most of it. I think we'd be over the moon thrilled if Green was performing as well as KPJ right now. That said, he's not a PG, he's a combo guard, he needs another competent ball handler out there with him and Green simply isn't it....and I don't think Sengun really is either. Perhaps the Rockets will land Henderson to be that primary ball handler and push KPJ to the 3 and take the ball out of Green's hands almost entirely. Overall though, I pretty much agree with your evaluation.
For me, the Rockets I care about are Green, Smith, Tari, and Sengun. Green needs to hit his three point shot consistently. He just isn't good enough elsewhere not to be a great shooter. Mid range game is nice and will be opened up when he can shot 3s for late in the shot clock opportunities. If he shots three like he did second half of last year with his ability to get to the line this year, he's going to be a great scorer. If not, bust. Smith..there are times..most of the time, that I think he hurts the team. He really needs to be able to shoot to justify being on the floor right now if judged by performance. It is about development, so as tough as it is to watch, he needs to play. Tari....finishing close to the basket is needed. Sengun Offense great. Defense is as bad as offense is great. Maybe worse.
This is a great write-up; thanks for your insight. I agree with most of what you said. And strongly agree about Jabari’s growth. He puts in the effort on both sides of the ball and demands accountability. He’s not a faness player. I’ve been impressed with his ability to rebound and he can play with some physicality even though he’s still growing into his body. He’s got the right mentality to be successful. His shot will eventually fall. He’s the guy I’m least worried about long term. I agree that Al P’s defense is not good, but I do think it can become adequate if he puts in the work. There are times I see the effort and times when it feels like he gives up. He’s often out of position on defense. To me some of this is him still learning how to play defense in the nba and some of it is his physical limitations. But I think he can move better than people give him credit for. He has a good bball IQ and vision. It’s not hopeless that he can improve his defense. But as far as his development, it feels like he’s done it on his own; I don’t see Silas’ hand a work there.
I don't think Sengun is the best player on this team, but didn't say anything cause I think it's been talked about enough. I think just about everyone who loves and hates him understands he's a good passer, rebounder and post scorer + he needs to improve his 3pt shooting and defense. I haven't seen as much improvement from this season as I was hoping, but he is improving and maybe I was overexpecting. I wish he had worked on his 3pt shot and if he did I hope he just keeps working on it because it's so important to his future. On defense he just needs a lot of repetition and a bit more strength, I think he will be a good defender in 2 years time. Unfortunately I don't agree with you that he's not that bad at defense right now but for me that doesn't impact his awesome ceiling. I'll say that if Sengun adds a 3pt shot and becomes an average defensive anchor, he will be worth near max money. He has a special basketball IQ too that will get shockingly good, he will have a lot of fans in the future.
I do believe Shai Alexander will be better than Booker, he has the green light to do more. I am not seeing why Devin Booker is the new standard around here for an SG but I play along.
Sengun's numbers are up across the board and I'm not talking about per game. His efficiency is up, his reboundn rate is up, his PER(production) is up, his winning metrics winshare, BPM, raptor rating are all up massively. Sengun is one of the few who have taken the leap this year so it is odd to be disappointed in his improvement.
This is fantastic analysis and it really is hard to argue with any of these points. I am really frustrated with the player/team development aspect of this rebuild right now. I agree that Silas has to be close to being fired. I have posited that if the Rockets lose the 1/18 CHA game that could be the moment. I hope over the summer the Rockets hit on a good development coach. I have been banging the drum for Kenny Atkinson. Jalen Green is the most important player on this team and his development should be paramount. I feel like there has been regression this year and that is frustrating. Stone has been way too reactive and not proactive in trades. The EG situation is a prime example. I am praying the Rockets at minimum get a Top 5 pick but ultimately, yeah, they desperately need a Top 2 pick. To me, falling out of the Top 5 would be a disaster as I feel there is a gap after the Top 5 in terms of "high ceiling talent."
The three top teams in the west this year, Denver, Memphis and NOR all have centers who are LESS of a rim protector than Sengun. The Suns who represented the west in the finals last year also has a center who is LESS of a rim protector than Sengun. Let that sink in.
Yes I was just really optimistic, I expected all those things plus a higher asst/to ratio and a higher 3pt%. Can't have everything I guess.
That was a very flattering piece on Bari's Offense. He still can't finish inside or is only doing enough to warrant the label 'big man'. I also disagree that Green and Jabari are must picks, I think the media and scouts were sold on parts of their games that were sugar-coated. GMs just followed suit.
They have abandoned his 3 pointer for now until it's at a passable %, I agree with this. His turnover rate is down, but his assist rate is also slightly down which doesn't help the ass/to ratio. This is because for most of the season, inexplicably, the coaches wanted him to play the role of Montrezl Harrell or Bruno Fernando, a dumb rim roller who's sole purpose was an outlet for the guard's assists. This has shockingly not worked, and now that the coach's job is at risk they are using Sengun more as a hub again which is why his assists are up recently, he's averaging 4 assists to 1.9 TO in the last 10 games.
Clutch basically just said as much on the Rockets Watch chat. Nobody wants to come to Houston because there is no player here that is a draw the way James Harden was a draw
