Kubiak Back to Broncos?

I think they'd have to go 5-11 before McNair would pull the plug - mainly because he'd be forced to do so. At 7-9 or 8-8, the official spin can be that the "tough" schedule plus the suspensions did them in. 7-9 would be hard to swallow but it's close enough to 8-8 to justify keeping GK around for one last year. As I have posted before, I think the looming lockup trumps everything.

 

And accepting mediocrity because you're afraid of that is again the definition of a terrible franchise.

You'd easily net $5MM for a home playoff game. Reliant holds 70,000 people. At $100 / ticket, that's $7MM. That's not even including concessions, additional merchandise sales from making the playoffs, parking fees, suites, etc.

Delay is no different than anything else. If you know something is not working, "giving it another year" is dumb. It's no different than giving David Carr another year after just about everyone could see that wasn't going to work. It wastes a year, during which your core players age and get less effective. At some point, Andre starts going downhill, Schaub gets even less athletic, and who knows how long a running back will last.

 

That's silly. The Jags could very well win this division with 9 or 10 wins this year.

Nonsense. You never see coaching changes of non-DOA teams midseason. It's not paralyzing anything. Teams are making the same changes they would be otherwise. You already have 3 openings during the season. At the end of the season, you'll likely have several more, including Cleveland, Carolina, and San Fran. That's a minimum of 20% of the teams changing head coaches despite a lockout.

This is all heresay that's not supported by anything. McNair doesn't have enough history for us to say whether he's too loyal to coaches or not. He fired Capers the first time he took a step backwards. This will be the first time Kubiak takes a step backwards - there's no telling how he will react.

 

In the 10 years the franchise has been around, what specifically have they penny-pinched on?

 

and any fan that accepts it deserves this franchise. if we don't make the playoffs and kubiak is still the coach, that tiny speck of faith i have in this franchise will be flushed down the toilet.

 

I'd be willing to bet if you look back at the same version of this thread last year, the standard was "make the playoffs next year, or he should be gone." Everyone knew about the lockout possibility then too. This whole "just one more year" wreaks of what MadMax posted - Groundhog Day.

And the difficult schedule argument is nonsense too. It was based on last year's results, which assumed we'd be playing a 14-2 Indy team twice, a pretty good Titans team, a great Cowboys team, a great San Diego team, etc. The reality is that the Texans have had a slightly above-average schedule, but nothing particularly daunting.

 

Again, keeping GK while making the changes that Ric talks about is not accepting mediocrity. To accept mediocrity would be to do nothing and keep the current staff intact. Accepting mediocrity is like keeping Carroll Dawson as GM for trip after trip to the NBA lotto. Rest assured, lockout or no, changes will be made on this team and coaching staff.

In ordinary times, I'd agree but these aren't ordinary times. The owners want this lockout and seem hell bent on getting it. They want to squeeze the players and are ready to "waste" a year. So you really can't fault Bob for being paralyzed by the uncertainty as to what to do. Besides, you change coaches now and the lockout hits and then what do you have? A new coach stuck with players Kubiak + Bush picked to fit a system that isn't yours. That has success written all over it for sure.

 

Are you going to pay people to work those concessions stands, merchandise stands, parking lots, suites, etc.? What about field crew, scoreboard operators, ushers and, oh yeah - 53 players and an entire coaching staff? Add the fact that the money allocation changes in the postseason - the NFL actually collects a larger % of ticket sales - and it's not uncommon for teams to actually lose money during the postseason.

All things being equal, I agree for the most part. But the lockout offers an entirely new, unpredictable dynamic; I think it's far too easy for fans to yell, "Write the check!" when none of us would do the equivalency in our lives.

 

It's more of a generalization than a cite to any specific examples. They don't spend money on upgrades in free agency (Ahman Green, Reeves, Antonio Smith were all very much need positions) ... I guess if you're looking for a specific example, letting Dunta go fits (with no apparent backup plan going in), though I was admittedly for it at the time.

I'm not saying that they should be out blowing money every offseason, because that is not the way to win in the NFL. But a lot of times, a team on the cusp adds a key free agent or two that makes a big difference (ex: Saints added Vilma via trade and Sharper during '09). Whether or not we've had the opportunity to make these types of moves is uncertain; we just can't tell from the outside. And for the record, I was against Schobel at the price tag he wanted.

But when you look at our history, we haven't made any kind of splash moves in FA unless it's an absolute need. We do reward our key players within reason, and that is a good thing. I'm not blaming Mcnair for any lack of spending thus far, I'm just citing it as a reason to why he might not pay another coach unless it's absolutely necessary (IE we lose out from here). I want Kubiak gone as much as anyone, but I am not anticipating it happening this year.

 

Right but the Texans are currently 2 behind the Jags with 4 left to play. Do you really like their (Texans) chances in this scenario? I can see them going 3-1 (which would have them finish 8-8) or 2-2 (which would have them finish 7-9).

The 3 openings this season were more or less necessary as those teams were spiralling downward (in Denver's case, that was Bowlen's bitter pill to swallow because McDaniel was HIS F'up). To those, I'd add Cincy with Arizona & the t*** as possibilities. The Texans aren't this level of bad so the case for dismissing Kubiak becomes more problematic. Let's say you get your wish and he's let go. He goes to Denver where Elway is running things and they get to rolling while the new Texans' coach is faced with overhauling a roster stocked with players who don't fit his system and whom he was prevented from working with BECAUSE of the lockout. The mood around here would be epic, that's for sure.

We'll have to disagree on this point. My money says that GK will be back for one last year. We shall see. At some point, things have to start going our way.

 

Great question. Let's start here: Can we all agree, regardless of what happens (and I think that includes 9-7), Frank Bush and the defensive coaches are gone? I just can't envision a scenario in which they retain their jobs. I guess, maybe, if they finish 4-0 and pitch four shut-outs... but even then, I wouldn't rubberstamp it.

And I think that's the key here: the defense is so obviously the problem, Bush and staff make a convenient, easy scapegoat. So, no - I don't think Kubiak goes if they finish 7-9. BUT... McNair is going to HAVE to provide some sign of accountablity by neutering Kubiak: Fire his hand-picked, worthless GM and force him to hire a big-name defensive coordinator with genuine skins on the wall. IMO, that represents a dramatic shift without blowing things up.

What will it take to get fired? If the players roll over and quit. They've never done that to the guy before - but if they come out and just get waylaid these next 4 weeks, you HAVE to make a change, regardless of record.

 

IMO, the only acceptable solution that doesn't include firing Kubiak is one that effectively neuters him. Fire Rick Smith, the entire defensive and special teams staff. Hire a proven GM and allow him to pick all replacements. Kubiak can have a say, but strip him of having the final say in personnel decisions (coaches and players).

That's best case for Kubiak, too. If things turn around, he gets credit for leading it on the field. If not, he gets to say, "Well, they took x, y, and z away and I couldn't be an effective leader."

If it's not acceptable for Kubiak, then it becomes that much easier to fire him.

 

I disagree with you here. I don't think that McNair is all that afraid to make a change - I think he really doesn't know what changes to make given the uncertainty of the looming lockout, etc. So I can see him canning Smith, Bush and the lot but I'm forced to agree with Ric in that unless this team goes into major tank mode and looses all remaining games in an embarrassing fashion Kubiak will be back for one last harrah (or curtain call).

 

You almost wonder if McNair needs Dan Reeves to come in again and hold his hand.

 

...I don't know, man... depends how far his head is buried. IMO, I rank their issues as follows: 1) defensive coaching staff; 2) personnel; 3) head coach. And I'd put a bit of distance between 2 and 3. I think.

The lockout changes everything: But if I was McNair, I'd engage Dungy and Cowher and check interest. If either said OK, I'd wipe all 3 out STAT. If they're not viable, I fire Bush, et al, and Smith and strip Kubiak of power with a "one more year" endorsement.

Cause, here's the deal: If you dump Kubiak, you're going to dump Smith and put in place a new blueprint which includes a clear-cut GM and coach-only head coach who hires experienced coordinators, right? You have to. And if the team finishes strong/doesn't quit, with the offense a playoff-caliber offense... are we significantly upgrading if we bring in........ big-name coordinator guy? Or is it better off with Kubiak and a new set of rules around him?

I honestly don't know the answer......

Is it fear or (misguided) belief? I think Kubiak's had enough time; something drastic has to change. But I can see McNair buying into the idea that they remain a mere play or two away from getting over the hump...

Thing is... and where I struggle a bit, too - do you guys remember how terrible this offense was before Kubiak? This is a top-flight offense now; that's what they brought him in to do. It's easy to say, "Well, he's done A, B and C wrong..." but harder to temporarily put that aside and say, "Yeah, but he's also done D, E, F well." And I think it's that D, E, F that's so... intriguing - do you want to give up on him too early? Does he have a Bellichick-like turn-of-the-corner in him?

Maybe it is fear, but fear of losing the eventual right guy. I don't know...

The whole thing is confounding, IMO. I have no clue what's the best course of action.

 

Sorry; wanted to clarify: So intriguing to McNair. Does HE want to give up too early, etc.

 

Penny pinching does not make your franchise as valuable as the texans, they make a ton of money and most of it is not due to simply penny pinching. If you look at the other top 10 teams, they are all teams with multiple championships and teams willing to spend money. bob is just a cheap old b****.

 

Where is THIS coming from? Kubiak is among the highest-paid coaches in football. They have the largest coaching staff in the league. And, IIRC, during Casserly's era, they had the largest scouting staff in the league. He renegotiated Andre Johnson's contract when he didn't have to, handed an unproven Schaub $48M, paid Carr $8M, has never had a camp hold-out and has continued to sign a never-ending slew of underperforming free agents despite the continued negative ROI...

You can make a lot of claims against McNair - but being cheap simply isn't one of them. Please back that up.

 

Excellent point! McNair's greatest failure is that he seeks advice in the wrong places. He desperately needs to find a George Young , Tex Schramm or Bobby Bethard type to run this organization. His last two GM choices have been poor which shows up in the product on the field. You want success for the Texans? Start out by building a strong organization from the top down like the Steelers & Pats have done.