Some thought the Knicks were a lock for the playoffs. Not so fast!! :grin: They have a lot more losses left on the schedule (knock on wood)..
finally something positive going on here, let's hope they keep losing, suddenly finding something to root for ,yeah!!!!!
The Rockets CANNOT trade their own 2012 pick at the trade deadline due to the pick obligation owed to New Jersey from the Terrence Williams deal. The only way around this is to acquire another team's UNPROTECTED 2012 or 2013 first round pick in the next 48 hours before trading their own pick. Expect the same problem at next year's trade deadline (and maybe in 2014, 2015 and 2016 as well), only with no more Knicks pick to trade as an alternative. This has been a big reason why I've wanted to make the playoffs this year. If the Rockets can get that pick obligation out of the way in 2012, they won't have to worry about this issue going forward.
Why? This team is not going anywhere the way it is currently constructed. The worst thing would be for us to make the playoffs and be one and done knowing we are in rebuilding mode. The experiment failed let's get the best draft pick by cleaning house and starting over. Let's keep our picks until we hit bottom and start winning again with a new team with at least a little hope of being something better. I actually think this is where Morey can help. Give us those great assetsin the draft now, like Parsons that we can build around a superstar we nabbed in the draft because we suck next year. Dump the team and play rookies and second year guys around Bogut/Gasol and Lowry. Bring Donuts next year and Llull the year after. That with a top ten pick this year and a maybe a top five Next year along with the best free agent money can buy in 2013 puts us back on track. By the time we are good again Wade and Lebron will be aging. Let's face it no one is beating them anytime soon. Might as well prepare to be the best team after the Wade and James era. Let's see if Morey can really do it. Anyway thats what I want! Making the playoffs postpones the building process a bit and allows to make a slightly better trade maybe but for what. So we can be mediocre another year. I want to lose now. Not tank but rebuild with youth.
Well reasoned as always Bima. My only question is this. When will a draft this deep come around again?
If we miss the playoff and the pick obligation is postponed to 2013, is it still lotto protected? If yes, then why does it matter? Sooner or later we'll give them a 15-20 pick. The pick this year is actually more valuable because the draft is "supposed" to be deep.
It matters because GM's, Morey included, often like to have first round picks to trade. By virtue of not being able to not have multiple first round picks 2 years in a row (in the future), Morey won't be able to trade any future first round picks until either (1) the Nets obligation is satisfied, or (2) he picks up a fully UNPROTECTED first round pick from another team. Which would mean next trade deadline, all the people you see proposing Player, X,Y and Z plus our first round pick for Superstar Player from other team would have to get rid of the "plus our first round pick" portion. Your and OMR's argument about keeping as many draft picks as possible, especially in a deep draft, also has validity. I actually think it has even more validity if the Knicks miss the playoffs, as if they do it's likely that pick is #9 or #10, and in this draft, the thought of either having 2 lotto picks (#9/10 and #14) to allow DM to draft a little bit more aggressively, OR to trade 2 lotto picks to move up, even if just a few spots in the lottery, for DM to pick a player he truly believes could be that franchise player, is very enticing. Unfortunately, we don't know if the Knicks will or won't make the playoffs (and probably won't until the last week of the season), and having the 14th/15th pick is quite different than the 9th/14th pick. Given that, Bima's argument is very persuasive. But whatever the case - first round exit or #14 pick, still not a lot to get pumped about.
He believes it hinders our ability to make trades for players because we can't include our pick in a trade to obtain assets. But my idea is the other way around. Let's trade our assets now into draft picks and younfer players. A draft pick now is more valuable than any player we are able to trade it for because it allows to suck for a year more. Let's face it Howard, Dwill, CP3 are not walking through that door with or without our draft pick and seriously only one player in this league could turn this franchise around over night. So I have to disagree with the Bima's idea albeit well thought out.
I almost look at the protected pick as insurance that Morey won't get crazy and trade our future away. I trust him but it keeps him honest and doesn't alow us to just give in to another GM's demands for more picks.
Lol and they were so sure. Like it was impossible for this pick to get any better. Fans even started to cheer for the Knicks.
OK. Thanks for the clarification. But on the other hand, if we get luck in the next couple of days, or we hit jackpot in the free agency, then we don't really need to worry about xyz+1st for a super star next season, and hopefully our pick next year will be in the useless 25-30 range? It's a lot of IFs, I know. But isn't that what Morey and co. have been planning for with all the cap space flexibility?
while I would never cheer for the Knicks, I have to admit I was a believer they couldn't possibly miss the playoffs in the East with all that talent. I guess the lesson learned is to never underestimate the cancerous impact of Carmelo Anthony.
I didn't cheer for the Knicks but I like players like Lin. His story is amazing so I did root for him and not so much the Knicks but like any real Rocket fan I have to hope the Knicks lose every game. The definitely have a much tougher schedule but let's be real that Knicks team is loaded with talent. They will eventually figure it out. I just hope it happens after the 9th pick is a lock.
All true, but I think DM has to plan for every contingency. As nice as it is to have cap flexibility, if you strike out on Dwight and Deron, the remaining unrestricted free agents this offseason leave A LOT to be desired. I'm not sure I'd sign a single one of them. I just can't envision signing Dwight or Deron this offseason. It sounds great, would be awesome, but I put our probability of that at extremely low. I think it's all in the trade basket, which seems to be what DM is trying to do. Maybe he makes a big move this week??
surely the Rockets could get creative with the wording of a trade if they wanted to use their 1st round pick. i.e. Rockets trade this years 1st round pick to "team a" in 2012 unless they make the play-offs in which case they will trade their 2013 1st round pick or the 2014 pick, which ever is available 1st.
^ no, they can not do that. See Bima's post here: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=6683096&postcount=35 The full thread is probably a useful read. Bima is very very good at specifically laying out his position! http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=216406
OMR, your proposed approach is completely valid as well and is probably one that the Rockets' front office is weighing against my approach as the trade deadline nears. In defense of my approach, however, I will say this: It gives the Rockets a lot more FLEXIBILITY than your approach does. And we all know how highly Morey values flexibility. For instance, let's say that the Rockets follow your approach. They end up with the #13 and #15 picks in this year's draft. Those picks are not enough to trade into the top-6 or 7, since most teams picking there already have enough young players (quantity) and would prefer more quality. (Heck, I think we're one of those teams as well!) The Rockets are left forced to take TWO more guys who won't likely play next year and who factor in as likely rotation players/fifth starter-caliber guys. With Motiejunas and the MIN 2nd rounder coming over, that's a lot of rookies added to a team that will already have several players under the age of 24 on the roster (Budinger, Patterson, Parsons, Morris, Smith, plus all the rookies). And unfortunately, this draft doesn't have any Euro-stash players worthy of a mid-first round selection to keep overseas to develop. Now, the Rockets are in the same frustrating situation they were in this season: too many nice young players, not enough PT to appease them all. Meanwhile, Morey is hampered by the NJ pick obligation and cannot put together that "home run trade package". (I think Morey realizes that Dwight Howard and Deron Williams aren't begging to sign with the Rockets as free agents, so the best way to acquire a star is to TRADE for one.) Sure, the Rocket MIGHT be able to slowly re-build over 4-5 years and eventually luck into a franchise player by winning the lottery in 2015. But wouldn't it be better to just go ahead and trade away would could be, say, the #17 pick in this year's draft (which, contrary to popular belief, is NOT as deep as many think - go see many draft experts' CURRENT projections on the draft's depth - many think 2011 will end up being a better draft overall) and get that pick obligation out of the way? If the Rockets did that and made no other moves, they could add Motiejunas and another good rookie (with the Knicks' pick) to next year's team AND be free to do what New Jersey's doing this year: tank for a good pick while at the SAME TIME holding that ever-appreciating unprotected pick to offer in trades if a superstar shakes loose. It's the best of both worlds!!!!! Oh, and as far as using assets to trade up in this year's draft, I still think the Rockets would be just as likely--or unlikely--to trade up using a package of (1) the Knicks' pick (wherever that ends up), (2) a second first round pick they can probably get for Dragic this week, and (3) Chase Budinger (who, with a team option for the league minimum salary next year, is actually a nice piece for a team looking to trade down in the draft for young depth). Is a package of, say, the #13 and #15 picks THAT much better than a package of #15, #23 and Budinger? Remember, if the other team is going purely for top talent, they'd just keep their own higher pick. Any team willing to trade down--and there may not be any teams willing to do so, another factor you need to consider--will want multiple quality players. Seems to me to be a pretty close call. So why sacrifice having such great trade flexibility--maybe even enough to make a difference in acquiring a superstar!--for such a small difference in the proposed trade packages above? It's just not worth it. But maybe that's just me.
