If you're in charge, do you let Gerrit Cole walk or pay him?

You might be right. But short term struggles for various reasons are just part of the game and I'm not at the point of laying all the change on sticky stuff just yet. Just the act of checking for it can disrupt a pitcher. Time will tell.

 

xFIP starts to stabilize around 140 plate appearances or is typically about 0.75 runs of the final season xFIP, ERA, and FIP. Here is Cole's 6-game running average in xFIP which equates to approximately 140 plate appearances.



Cole is at 4.01 for the past 6 games (140 plate appearances) which suggests his current talent level is between 3.25 to 4.75 xFIP, ERA, and/or FIP. There is a chance this is just a really bad stretch like the 2018 peak that just happens to coincide with the sticky stuff enforcement and he's better than the 3.25 xFIP. I'm guessing he ends up posting an xFIP between 3.25 and 4.01 the rest of the season.

 

This is such annoying bullsh!t.

 

Well spin rates don’t lie. And the offense was at an all time low and spin rates at an all time high before the memo.

MLB doesn’t enforce this mid season if they didn’t think it was making pitchers too dominant.

 

This conversation is going nowhere. You think there's enough data and I don't. Let's just leave it at that.

 

You don’t believe the sticky stuff was giving pitchers an increased advantage/increased spin rate/increased control? Climate change hoax? That’s all that’s being dissected here.

 

You're too busy making a case on limited information to even hear me. This conversation is over for now.

 

Spin rates across baseball are at an all time low since 2017. I’m not sure what information you’re seeking… they made a big deal about it because it clearly was giving pitchers a major advantage.

 

Neg rep. Close thread.

 

GOT EM. ZAKHEM.

 

Says the guy who touts Alvarez 2 game sample size of an "ERA+" [sic] of .808.

 

Just out of curiosity, does anyone still feel like we should have paid him?

 

Yes. But it ain't my money.

 

We will get so see how good or bad Cole is this weekend.
I

 

I hope he performs as well as Keuchel did.

 

Agree.
Would love to give Cole a standing ovation as he is walking off the mound in the 4th inning with the Astros up 8-0.

 

Huh. Tell us what the spreadsheets say.

 

Ok what am I missing here?

 

All the spreadsheets in the world won't work without sufficient information. Anyone can make rash statements on preconceived notions without any information at all.

 

Astros have benefited from an injury plagued 2020 season finding workhorses in Valdez, Javier, Urquidy, Garcia pre-arbitration... having McCullers best seasons locked up, etc. I’d say it paid off for the Astros not paying Cole (who’s still a top five starter).

This lineup is phenomenal and can be sustainable if the Astros pay Correa. You can let Brantley walk with the development of Tucker, Straw & McCormick..maybe Leon before Brantley hits free agency, Gurriel and Altuve could be playing on their final deals. Bregman prolly doesn’t get a ton at this point...Toro is pretty damn good somewhere on the infield.

Don’t think we should spend on pitching. Odorizzi is around for two years or lands a top prospect. JV or Grienke can sign a team friendly 1yr deal maybe with an option if they hit milestones.

We aren’t having postseason success without the way Correa lives for it.