If you're in charge, do you let Gerrit Cole walk or pay him?

How many years of watching baseball does it take before people stop overreacting to small sample sizes? His numbers as a Yankee - this year too - are basically the same as with the Astros. He had bad starts with the Astros too. He leads the league in strikeouts and is top-3 in innings and top-5 in ERA. In his last 2 bad starts, he struck out 12 batters in 8 innings, so apparently he still has plenty of stuff. He probably ends the season as a top-3 Cy-Young candidate, assuming no injuries.

 

Lol, good job necro bumping this garbage.

 

All true…but let’s see how it plays out, cause if you go back to June 3rd (sticky day) he has given up 2 runs in 34 innings…now 34 innings is still a tiny sample size, but I bet the yankmees are more than a tiny bit nervous

Chapman also turned to **** after the announcement, poor yankmees

 

Why are you using full season numbers and not post crackdown numbers when his RPM took a noticeable decline?

Nobody should assume he's gonna suddenly be a terrible, he'll bounce back and be a really good pitcher. However the Yankees paid for dominant Astros Gerrit Cole, and it looks like they now how Pittsburgh Gerrit Cole.

 

In the second year of a nine+ year contract at the highest AAV in baseball (and first NORMAL season), he's pretty much giving you the minimum by being in the top 5 Cy contenders. At that contract level, there is very little risk he can outplay his contract and a huge risk of falling short. (see Verlander contract). There are only a handful of pitchers that are hugely successful throwing heat for over fifteen years. Nolan was one, though some would argue the definition of successful, and up until last year, Verlander was one. Cole will have to beat the odds to be worth his contract.

The Yankees are being much better this decade about buying every good player and this is there first real open checkbook acquisition in a while. While still near the top of the payroll charts, they are within site of others. Whether this is from the CAP, general economics of the Steinbrenner family fortune, Daddy's ego no longer in play or a combination of the above is mere speculation.

I do like the format of the contract with an opt out provision which can be over-ridden by an extension at the same AAV. This is outside the box thinking offering some protection to both player and the club for future years with a long term contract.

 

There still isn't a sufficient sample size to determine whether the sticky stuff is responsible or if it's just another of baseballs famous bad streaks which will be followed by good streaks. At this point, just the disruption to the routine caused by the checking is as suspicious as the sticky stuff.

 

Show of hands, how many here think that the Yankees are on the phone with Rob Manfred discussing how the league can make Pelican Grip legal so that they are not stuck paying Cole nine years for a league average pitcher on the decline.

 

You can stop at "the Yankees are on the phone with Rob Manfred..." since all decisions by MLB are are strictly governed by what is best for the Yankees. Yankees cheat, everyone else gets the warning. Everyone else gets a no-tolerance stand and immediate consequences. Yankees are using tech while others are cheating with tech.

Carlos Beltran just evened the playing field when he came here from the Yankees. But the Yankees are untouchable.

Finally,

Home (where cheating is possible) 48-33
Road (where cheating is NOT possible) 53-28

There is NO EVIDENCE that "cheating" helped.

NO ASTERISKS!

 

Exactly. His spin rate (like most of baseball’s) has noticeably declined since the crackdown. Since then scoring has gone up, batting averages have gone up. Could it simply be a coincidence? Possibly… weather is getting warmer (balls tend to go further), players are maybe just now getting back in a groove after a year plus of the pandemic bullshit, some pitchers usually hit a dead-arm phase 2 months+ into the season, etc….

Could also very well be a magic feather like effect (i.e.- mental). Cole knows how good he became in Houston. He’s not shied away from commenting on his involvement using sticky stuff. We know he’s had confidence issues in his god-given ability as recently as 3 years ago. This isn’t a guy who’s dominated from day one of his career.

Lastly, he happens to be playing the majority of his games against three teams (Rays, Red Sox, Blue Jays) who can all hit the ball very well. His offense is currently last in the AL in runs. A lot of stuff working against him.

In the end, no pitcher is worth $40 million a year… so its safe to say that there will be increased regret if Cole is any lesser version of himself from here on out.

 

Would it surprise anyone if Manfred suddenly reversed himself with some excuse like an increase in HBP and issued MLB approved sticky stuff individualized for certain teams?

 

Being an old man, I remember when Nolan Ryan wasn't worth $1M a season when the Astros paid him that and again wasn't worth $2M a season when the Rangers paid him that. So any figure you say is a magic limit will eventually be exceeded. The question is how long will it take? High inflation is likely at some point and more Carter Economy with high unemployment and inflation seems inevitable. $100M per year players and self serve vending at ballparks are on it's way.

 

Cole will figure it out (hopefully after Astro game) though it might take an off-season. He needs to adjust to holding the ball differently after using the stickiest stuff in the world to grip a baseball.
Maybe he is the Pirate version? 100 mph fastball pitcher with average secondary stuff and the spider tack took him to next level.

To be great you make adjustments. Grienke adjusted to losing his fastball, Nolan Ryan developed a change up.

 

"as a representative of myself"

That turned me so off that I cant help but cheer against him. Just another Strommy reclamation project to me.

 

They'll allow pitchers to use the sticky stuff but allow batters to cork their bats for now on.

 

Because 2 starts is dumb sample size to use to measure anything. When the rules change midseason, I imagine it probably takes time for pitchers to adjust how they pitch.

Sure - no question about that. But the Yankees knew that when they signed him - that's part of the price of acquiring a Cole to try to be the last piece to a World Series. The Astros overpaid for Beltran, but they felt like he could be a missing piece, and if they won a WS as a result, it was all worth it. If the Yankees win a couple of WS during his 9 years and he plays a key part, then it will have been worth the money for them. But that's not what people are arguing - they are suggesting that his last 2 starts post sticky-stuff as damning evidence that he's not very good without it and that's why his contract is overvalued.

 

Not sure why people are only looking at 2 starts. He’s had 6 starts since the memo came out, with a 5+ ERA and a significant decline in spin rate, K/9, BAA. No double digit K games.

There will always be an adjustment factor for any mid-season change… but the fact remains that Cole basically acknowledged his reliance on sticky substances beyond rosin/sweat and he had significant concerns about being the same pitcher when the mandate was officially announced.


He’s still going to have good games. He will adjust to what works, and teams will have to adjust to his adjustments. That could happen as soon as this Friday against the Astros. But to presume that this stretch is just an anomaly and he’s going to go back to dominating at a historic rate (like he did to start this season, and for long stretches in 2018 and 2019) deserves questioning.

 

I think it's psychological for Cole as well as physical. When you perceive such a big reliance on something as being responsible for your success, you will feel handicapped without it. He is questioning himself. He was an overall #1 pick without spider tack, I think.

I find it similar to Jose Lima pitching at Enron, he saw that left field wall and he couldn't overcome it mentally. Until Cole gets past that mental block that he can be effective without spider tack, he will continue to struggle. A pitcher not throwing with confidence is screwed.

 

Yep, it looks like it is 4 starts clean, and 6 starts since he dumped the good stuff based on spin rates (i.e., it looks like he tried to use something less sticky for 2 games to help him transition). I would be very worried if I was the Yankees. I think he'll figure some stuff and be better than he was in June, but I expect he'll be one of the pitchers more affected by the sticky stuff enforcement as he has leaned heavily on his fastball and his slider being dominant pitches.

 

Saying it's too soon to tell is NOT the same thing as saying he won't be affected. It's saying it's too soon to know whether he will be or won't be because of limited data.

The hardest position to take on a message board is, "I don't know yet." Neither side will believe you.

 

My response was 6 starts is more data than 2 starts. Also we have his entire career track which did showcase long periods of mediocrity/inconsistency, intermixed with a 2+ year run of dominance.

Lastly, we have his decreased spin rate which is by all measures an objective metric that has been universally impacted throughout baseball by the memo. Obviously the pitchers who weren’t as reliant upon it are seemingly not impacted as much. Cole’s 2+ year run of dominance coincided with a sharp rise in his spin rate starting in 2018.