So far the Rockets have played 5 games this season and there will be changes over the course of a full season without a long training camp and with uncertainly around a bunch of new players and a rookie coach. Still, I suspect at the end of the year there will be some truth to the trends that have developed early on in the season. The first thing that stands out to me is just how mediocre the Rockets have been. They were without a full team to start the season, but even considering that, the Rockets have really been mediocre. OFFENSE First, the Rockets proficiency shooting the three ball is about the same it was last year. That is a problem because the Rockets are shooting a lot less three's from last year. There was a strong belief that the Rockets three point field goal percentage was pedestrian in years past because the Rockets shot so many of them, and some of them were not good shots. So far that has not proven to be the case, the Rockets are shooting 15-20% less often than last year and still are shooting a poor 33%. The Rockets are shooting very well on two point field goals this year, as they are second in the league. Without crunching the numbers too much, that is likely in part because of Wood and the addition of Wall. This is one of only two things that the Rockets are doing at an elite rate (second in the NBA). The other thing the Rockets have done well is get to the line. The Rockets are getting to the line but not hitting them at the rate they did last year. The Rockets have been mediocre at creating turnovers or limiting their own. Steals and blocks and the foul differential all have been middling. Adding Wood inside has done nothing for the Rockets as a team when it comes to rebounding. The Rockets are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, especially on the offensive side. Overall the Rockets are a worse offensive team than last year and largely lack an identity on the offensive side of the ball. When the Rockets were elite, it was easy to see why they were.... they shot more 3's, they went to the line more and they won the turnover battles. They would typically lose the overall field goal percentage and rebounding match ups. John Wall and Christian Wood are combining for 11 three points attempts a game and are only hitting 3 of them for a terrible 26% clip. That alone is costing the Rockets 5 points a game. DEFENSE The Rockets are 23/30 when it comes to defensive ratings. The pace overall is in the bottom 1/3. The Rockets are fouling less, and teams are not shooting quite as well on two point field goal attempts. However, the Rockets have been horrible against the three, with teams shooting 40% while taking nearly as many three's as the Rockets (-3). The Rockets have attempted to run several different types of defenses this season within the same game. The Rockets have been most successful when they have switched a lot. This is consistent with what has worked for the Rockets in the past. The Rockets have also ran a pick and roll drop two defense at times and it has largely been a mess with the Rockets big players being too far from the perimeter a majority of the time. Some of the players have expressed the belief that the defense will improve with time. The player that has been singled out has been Wood as not being in tune with what the Rockets are trying to do, but I have also seen House out of position and Harden and Wood at times too. PLAYERS John Wall: He has largely been about what I expected. He is not someone that will score or carry the load that a Westbrook can, but he also is less likely to make mistakes and is capable of playing better defense and multiple styles of play. Wall has been an inconsistent shooter from season to season in his career. Right now he is shooting poorly and that is causing extra attention be paid to Harden. Wall has a history of shooting well some seasons, especially on a catch and shoot basis. His shooting 35% from 3 is the difference between being .500 and a a top 4-5 seed. James Harden: He is still an all time great monster offensively. He has been picking his spots more, and at times seems to let other players like Wood and Wall operate offensively while he plays facilitator. He has moved more off ball than in the past, but especially against the Mavericks, it hasn't been enough. Defensively he is hard for me to really evaluate because players have been out of position all over the court, but overall my best "guess" is that he is not quite as good as last year. Danuel House: He is fine as long as the Rockets limit his role to defender and spot up shooter. He lacks the size the Rockets need at the 3 but he should start shooting 3's better after Silas stopped over loading him. He is not a shot creator or ball handler. He is simply a stop gap at this position. Christian Wood: Well, we know he can score inside and post up. He is very efficient but he also doesn't pass well once he has the ball and if it is in a half court set the entire offense slows down. He shot the 3' ball well last season but it is looking like that is somewhat of an outlier. As a rebounder, he gets solid boards against teams that are not really strong inside. However, when push comes to shove he isn't going to get a lot of boards against physical players. Defensively he can be good if he is surrounded by larger good defenders but the Rockets don't have that. They are small at PF and SF. It really isn't an ideal fit. PJ Tucker: He still boxes out, he still is a pain in the ass for opposing teams on the defensive side. He can hit open 3's as well. However the problem is that he isn't as good a fit as before because spacing is an issue with Wood and Wall on the court. Neither are good three point shooters right now so Tucker finds himself camped in the corner. His lack of size is also an issue playing next to Wood. WHAT I THINK THE ROCKETS NEED The reality is that there is a real chance that this Rockets team just isn't going to be a team that needs to be taking a lot of three point shots. Wall and Wood both could shoot sub 33% on threes this season and Gordon hasn't been a good three point shooter for awhile now. Couple that with Tucker being a poor fit next to Wood, and the Rockets could be down to only a couple three point shooters. The other concern I have is the lack of size the Rockets have at their forward spots. That impacts rebounding and also makes it harder to cover for Wood in certain match ups. My suggestion would be to try and add size, especially at the small forward position. Some one like Harrison Barnes that is a solid defender, with the size and foot speed to switch over is ideal. Barnes is also capable of shooting from various spots on the floor. While he is over paid and isn't a star, he is quite reliable and can score when needed to. He also can set and come off of screens. Barnes can also shot the 3 and that will help the Rockets spread the court, and he can play the 4 and even a little 5 in certain match ups. The Kings have a number of players that could help the Rockets. Holmes, Bagley and even Bjelica all could possibly be fits as they bring size and can either rebound or shoot from the outside. There are plenty of other options, and this is all contingent on the Rockets not trading James Harden. I will just say that at this point I do not see a team that is going to win a playoff series.
Not without some serious changes. The Rockets need players like Wood and Wall to hit 3's, they need to work out their defensive issues and make changes at the forward spot. This Rockets team is an all or nothing scenario, either it will really work or they will be out of the playoffs.
Its hard to properly outfit your team with Tall's when all we had was small in one off-season. I think we did well, but I agree with you that if your going to go big, you have to have depth. After Boogie and Wood, who? The only other guy on the roster over 6'7" is Bruno. Enough said?
Great analysis @Nook! My only take on this is that the sample size is way too small. There wasn’t a real preseason per se and we have a bunch of new players including two new starters. You’ll get a better view of the team after 20 games or so... hopefully they’ll improve and we can start a new thread on how they’ve grown as a team... ....... ....... .......
Always been the blessing and curse of the Rockets offense - people railed on the one-D Harden-Paul 5 out or P&R offenses for their predictability. Ok now they are more multiple, but a lot of those multiples are not done particularly well, and are worse than the Harden-offense even when teams trap him every play. And as always, the quest for ACTUAL SHOOTERS continues...save you Sterling K. Brown, you the man, this is us. Seems to be the Rockets to do the same thing to Harden traps they did for a time pre-lockdown last year - get it to Wall and let him work at a fast pace going 4 on 3 asap - I haven't really noticed that yet this year (though, I haven't watched that closely yet this year, the only game I saw end-to-end was teh 2nd Sacramento game, and I saw most of the second half last night) For defense, I don't know, I'd still switch everything even if it means Wood and Cousins getting roasted on the perimeter every now and then. I mean, it's not elite like it was 3 years ago but it can still be adequate.
Pj Tucker gotta go dog. At least to the bench. There is no way you can keep making excuses for this guy being a complete non factor on the offensive end when playing so many minutes his jump shot is broken anywhere other than the corner and even that is suspect lately and he isnt rebounding for sht. Im out on PJ.
Wood is a weak defender and that's only partly due to his physique. There is a big difference in the expectations of a lottery bound Pistons and a potential contender in Houston, especially with the Harden situation. Bigs are bullying him, that will put extra pressure on him while he shoots. His form is pretty good and he doesn't take long shots. I expect his shooting will get better, but we need another defensive 4 along with Tucker. Tate isn''t big enough, neither is Nwaba. @Nook
It's been 5 games of camp and roster turmoil under a new coaching staff and system. Still not a single game with every available player and only TWO games with Harden and Wall both, one in which Harden was hobbled. 1-1 record in those games. This team needs 20 games with relatively stable health and roster situation before you can even guess what it can do.
Uncertainty. It’s hard for anyone to be committed when your supposed franchise player isn’t 100% all in.
I just want all 3 pointers to be catch and shoot and not from the top of the key. I appreciate Gordon has lost a couple of pounds. Looks leaner but it's like he's purposely looking to shoot the 34 ft 3 pointer. 3>2 but have more respect for the shot don't force it and heave it up there.
Some things don’t need 20 games. Is Wood going to suddenly gain 30 pounds of muscle in 20 games? Or magically have a better IQ on defense in that time? Will Tate/Nwaba/Brown/Tucker each gain 3-4 inches in 20 games? Otherwise, the defense and rebounding issues will still be there — whether it’s 5, 20, or 50 games.
