TIER II: Star upside 2. Scoot Henderson, 19, 6-2, PG, G League Ignite Henderson’s season at G League Ignite wasn’t exactly dominant. In fact, statistically, it wasn’t any better than what he’d done a year earlier as a 17-year-old. Despite his impressive physical tools, Henderson repeatedly settled for pull-up 2s that he converted at a barely adequate rate, shooting just 46.5 percent on 2s in a league with basically no shot blockers. Opponents just went under screens against him and dared him to pull up. Nonetheless, the tool set here is too enticing to ignore. Henderson is a big guard who can defend up positionally, especially with his superior length (a 6-9 wingspan, highly unusual for a 6-2 guard). While his scoring disappointed, he was a very effective distributor in the G League — almost too unselfish, actually. It appeared, more than anything, that Henderson threw it into cruise control this year while he waited on the NBA. His extended pre-game workouts on game days and severely diminished steal rate both lent more credence to that idea; it wasn’t quite LaMelo Ball-in-Australia level, but other than the head-to-head matchup against Wembanyama in Las Vegas in October, you never felt like you were seeing him at his best. Although we’ve been hearing his name for a while, Henderson is still one of the younger players in this draft at 19 years and 3 months and has an obvious development pathway if he can shoot more consistently from the perimeter. He made just 32.4 percent of his rare 3-point attempts and 76.4 percent of his free throws this past season, and there’s a danger that he gets “undered” to death as a pro and turns into Eric Bledsoe. Nonetheless, there is Derrick Rose-type upside here, especially if the shooting comes around. 3. Cam Whitmore, 18, 6-6 Fr. SF, Villanova I wasn’t initially impressed with Whitmore, who missed the first few weeks of the season and came back in early December. He’s powerful and athletic but heavily dependent on two-foot takeoffs around the basket and has a severe case of dribble blindness. Whitmore averaged a whopping 13 field goal attempts per assist this past season; among legitimate prospects, only the visibly unready GG Jackson was worse. So what’s he doing this high on my board? A wing with this level of athleticism and scoring ability just can’t be any lower; it’s the most valuable commodity in the game. Whitmore has a pretty ready translation as a “points-and-D” guy who scores at a high level and can also guard elite scorers himself; the question is whether the feel will ever come along for the ride, or if he’s just going to get an ugly 20 every night with Heisman Trophy drives into three people. Even with the two-foot takeoffs, Whitmore is a load when he goes to the rim: powerful, athletic and nimble. He has a good handle for size and a quick burst when he wants to take off, so he gets into the lane easily. Whitmore scored 26.4 points per 100 possessions in Big East play and shot 55.5 percent on 2s, while still leaving easy money on the table in terms of foul drawing that likely will come soon enough. He’s also a solid 3-point shooter; his windup is a little slow right now, but he has deep range. The next step is to get to a pull-up; once Whitmore starts dribbling, he’s going to the cup (probably to his left). The underrated part here is the defense. Whitmore has active hands that yielded one of the highest steal rates of any prospect, moves his feet in individual defense and gets way up off the floor contesting shots. Combine that with his July 2004 birthdate, and there is still a lot of time for things to turn further in his favor. And for him to figure out what those other four players on the floor do on offense. 4. Brandon Miller, 20, 6-9 Fr. SF, Alabama Basketball-wise, Miller might be the safest player on the board after Wembanyama. NBA teams will delve deeply into what transpired off-the-court at Alabama this past season, but as of now, teams don’t seem overly concerned. The problem is that, in the top five, safe isn’t exactly what you’re going after. Miller is 6-9, a money shooter, can handle the ball, whips left-handed passers to rim runners off the bounce and defends the wing at least somewhat credibly. It’s easy to imagine Khris Middleton or Rashard Lewis-type outcomes for him, where he’s the second-best player on a good team. It’s just harder to see a leading man. He’s not that level of athlete, finisher or ballhandler, and at 21, he’s a bit older than everyone else in the top 10. Despite his size, Miller is a very ordinary finisher, lacking explosion and craft around the rim and struggling to complete plays against any kind of length. His high dribble also gets exposed at times, especially against smaller defenders, and can get away from him. Miller can shoot off the catch, on the move or off the dribble, and the threat of his shot opens lanes and stresses defense. A nit-picker would like him to get more air under the ball, but he’s big and gets it away fast. His footwork is so good on the catch that he can easily be weaponized as a pick-and-pop threat, something that’s likely to happen much more at the pro level. It’s just hard to imagine a leading man who can’t create offense inside the arc. Defensively, Miller moves his feet decently for 6-9, and his upper body should fill out enough to allow him to play more four as he gets older. However, I wouldn’t call him a true switch guy either; after one or two slides, he’ll often leave the barn door open for a blow-by. I would trust him guarding threes and perimeter fours though, and he helps on the glass. Overall, I’m probably on an island choosing Whitmore’s upside over Miller’s certainty, but I think the age difference here isn’t getting enough attention. 5. Anthony Black, 19, 6-7 Fr. PG, Arkansas I am possibly irrationally out over my skis here, but I love this guy. Black reminds me of Jason Kidd at times, a big, smart, defensively active guard who impacts winning in so many other areas that the lack of a jump shot becomes secondary. Black is also among the younger players in this cohort, with an early 2004 birthdate, and thus time is on his side when it comes to finding his stroke. Black is a huge point guard who could potentially also play on the wing but moves his feet well enough on the perimeter that he can legitimately guard the one at the pro level. He combines that with some quick leaping, zipping off the ground to surprise shooters with shot contests and using verticality in the basket area very effectively. Offensively, I’ve been a big fan of Black all year because he can handle, pass and make correct decisions. His handle can get a little wobbly at times, especially in his right hand, and he made too many turnovers overall, but some of that stems from his limited shooting forcing him to drive into the teeth of the defense. Black has a slow release, a pronounced ball dip and seemingly not a ton of confidence in the entire enterprise, but we’re not talking about DeAndre Jordan here: Getting his shot to at least a 1-in-3 proposition in a two-year span shouldn’t be a massively daunting task. If he can do that, his size, feet and IQ should more than take care of the rest and make him a fixture in the league for years. TIER III: The mystery meat(s) 6. Amen Thompson, 20, 6-7 SF, Overtime Elite Welcome to the hardest evaluation in the draft. Amen Thompson and his twin brother (see below) have spent the least two years at Overtime Elite, a new program that doesn’t provide us with much of a historical gauge for what type of success will translate to the NBA. The Thompsons are also relatively old for one-and-dones; Amen will be 20.5 years old on draft night, while his twin brother will be (checks notes) 20.5 also. Most of the players the Thompsons are competing against are at least a year younger; many are two or even three years younger. That they dominate the games in this program, or played against other major high school teams, doesn’t really say much. (The matchup everyone wants, that will never ever happen, is to have Overtime Elite play against Ignite.) There is a fair argument to be made that they should be dominating more, actually. Overtime Elite played one real game against another professional team, versus the Adelaide 36ers of the Australian NBL in October. They lost, but Amen was the best player on the floor with 17 points, eight rebounds and five assists. Fortunately, the eye test makes it easy to take the plunge here. Amen is 6-7, can handle the ball, jumps out of the gym and sees the floor. This is the exact thing every team in the league is moving heaven and earth to acquire: elite athletes with size who can handle and pass. There are nits to pick with Thompson’s need for two-foot takeoffs, his gambling on defense and his lack of a pull-up game. But the biggest issue, by far, is his shot. It was a question when he get to Overtime, and in two years, it hasn’t really improved much. If you think Henderson is going to get “undered,” wait till you see how teams treat this guy. He could just be a 6-7 Rajon Rondo on offense. The fact that he’s been in this program for two years without material improvement in the shooting is troubling too; there’s a chance he’s just Stacey Augmon. On the other hand, if a team can work with Amen and get his shot anywhere near proficient, he’s the on-ball go-to guy every team craves. At this point in the draft, with no sure things or even quasi-sure things left on the perimeter, it’s worth rolling the dice.
I'm curious why he said OTE only played one real game against another professional team. They played a few games against Euro squads, as well. They lost by 5 to the 36ers, but got wrecked by a few Euro teams. Even in the 36ers game, I thought I remember reading Adelaide didn't play their main guys "normal" minutes. Wonder what his criteria was for "real"?
Adama Sanogo, U Conn, dominated the games in the Final Four. How can he only be the 87th ranked player on ESPN? https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...6/uconn-standout-adama-sanogo-enter-nba-draft
Adama Sanogo, U Conn, dominated the games in the Final Four. How can he only be the 87th ranked player on ESPN? https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...6/uconn-standout-adama-sanogo-enter-nba-draft
I'd like to see us move down to 6 and 11 and try to get either Black or Whitmore at 6 and Cason Wallace at 11.
Jrue Holiday comp on Wallace looks legit. I don't see a future superstar, but he could be one of those sneakily underrated players who does it on both ends and works his way with his grind into being the second-best guy on a contender.
Even though I'm an Amen guy, I wouldn't hate this if it worked out that way (or alternatively, Walker instead of Whitmore), but I have a suspicion Wallace will be off the board at 11, and you'd have to make the trade without knowing for sure. That's the problem with trading for Orlando's picks--even if they're up for it, by no means guaranteed, you're taking a BIG risk that all of "your guys" are gone by the second pick. If we do that and don't get Ausar/Black/Hendricks/Wallace at 11 I'd be pretty upset that we made the trade. Getting two lottery picks like that also ensures we're going to have playing time problems unless we make some big trades.
I haven't really done a deep dive on Wallace. I just know he's good and some general measurements. I'm pretty sure he's the better player, but how does he compare to TyTy? They have very similar measurements, same college, somewhat similar Tankathon attributes, etc. I think Vecenie had TyTy as a lottery pick last year (13ish). Maybe others too. TyTy didn't have a great rookie year, but maybe you can blame that on Silas. But if you think he can maybe get you 80% of Wallace, I wonder if I might prefer a different target in that range.
Kentucky guards have a good track record in the NBA, TyTy possibly excepted (too early to tell though). Wallace is kind of a jack-of-all-trades combo guard. Legit 6'4" in shoes, does a little bit of everything pretty well, but nothing elite except for his defense which is excellent. The ceiling comp I see people throwing on him is Jrue Holiday. Similar physical type and skillset. Maybe not quite the passer Holiday is? I go back and forth between the two, but I think I actually like him more than Anthony Black. He's not quite as tall, but he's still a great size for a point guard, and his strength somewhat makes up for being a couple inches shorter. Cason's jump shot is a little bit more developed than Black's, still not amazing, but definitely good enough that you can project him to be average or better down the road. I see him as a good starter in the NBA and a very safe pick. I don't really see superstar upside. I definitely think he's better than TyTy--I'd put him as a mid-lottery guy in this class, which is also stronger than last year's class, so that should tell you something. One thing I will say for the Sengun fans--I think Cason is hands down the best guard prospect in this class if you want to run the offense through Alpi. He's one of the best defensive guards in this class, great rebounder for his size, supreme hustle guy, projects to be a solid shooter, and plays well off the ball. Taking him at #4 would be a huge overdraft though. I think you'd have to trade back or trade up with the Clippers pick or hope he somehow falls to #20 (which I doubt).
I like Bufkin over Black. Hollinger has Bufkin at 10 and Black at 5. I’d love to get a combo guard while moving down and capturing some value to move for a vet.
Moving down would be the best option when the draft prospects don't have clear tiers unlike last year. More picks more chances fo winning. Rox have multiple other assets they can always trade up like say 11th+KJ Martin for 9th or w/e.
Wallace is better cuz he is more athletic, has 3 pt shooting and goes hard on defense. I agree with Oremlk huge overpay at 4 but decent in the low lotto imo.
Thanks for the feedback on Wallace. That was my general impression. I do like the idea of him developing into potentially a Jrue Holiday type PG. I guess I'm mostly still trying to reason about the benefits a Wallace would have over a TyTy (assuming both hit reasonably close to their ceilings, though not necessarily complete hits) vs taking someone else around that spot in the draft that could shore up weaknesses elsewhere (though I'd have to think about what weaknesses are bigger than PG play). I understand Wallace clearly being better, but wondering how a TyTy + Leonard Walker (or whoever) combo would work vs Wallace+ TyTy (or potentially shipping out TyTy...for something...but probably not a lot unless he plays up his value).
I think I would stay at 4. If Scoot Henderson is there take him If not Jarace Walker. There is a method to the madness. I move Jabri Smith JR to the SF. To run a big front three. When pick 20 comes around look at Derek Livily If not there then look at Leonard Miller SF or Noah Clowney PF. This would make it easier to move away from Martin JR, Porter JR and Tate. Maybe to add future Picks or players ahead. Flip it to FA Fred Van Fleet PG and maybe Pat Bev . You could look into Ayton to rotate with Senguin
I like how Amen's draft age is 20.4 and Ausar's is 19.8 in that article. Apparently Ausar is the really younger twin.
TyTy and Cason both were not the primary PG at Kentucky. Looking at their Kentucky stats, Cason did a shade better in assists but everything else is damn close. Cason is a plus defender which should translate immediately into the NBA. Note that TyTy hit 35% of his 3s in college (3.3 per game) and 24% in the NBA (2.6 per game, 31 games). No bueno. At 24%, TyTy is unplayable and untradable. My expectation is that next season the Rockets will be starting a veteran PG. The backup PG minutes (guessing 15-20 minutes) would go to TyTy or a rookie like Cason or Porter in a pinch. Getting the PG sorted should be a priority for Udoka next year.
