COVID-19 (coronavirus disease)/SARS-CoV-2 virus

Of course I believe without any doubt that the number is significantly underestimated. There is zero question about this.
The number of confirmed cases is the very tip of the iceberg.

I dont expect that a country can detect a disease in the first month (October) when it spilled over.
But when already 1.5 -2 months had passed and there were by then multiple severely ill patients with pneumonia that didnt respond to drugs in December then I expect that someone will alarm the WHO SOON.
No quaratine no education of the public until 1 and a half month later. Inexcusable.

And we all know why this happened.
It wasnt because the chinese doctors were incompetent or irresponsible.
It wasnt because it was a remote rural village with hardly any healthcare coverage.
It was because of censorship, beaurocrasy and the authority of the state.


And please dont equate a speeding ticket with someone being intimidated , censored and having to sign that he denounces his beliefs and sign away his conscience as a doctor.

The CCP is the sole reason that China responded too late to this outbreak. YET AGAIN.

 

And because of that, according to one epidemiologist, it is likely that you and I will eventually contract this illness:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

"Lipsitch predicts that, within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses."

 

I live next to Italy with my country being extremely close connected. Every single day there are literally hundreds of thousands of people who travel each way for tourism, education and work by train, car, ship and airplanes.
They still do to this moment. No travel ban imposed.

Thats why it's literally only a matter of time before I become quarantined myself and probably infected.
Same for most of the rest of Europe.

To think otherwise it's only denying reality.

I dont want to be like a prophet of doom or a crazy nutjob but whoever thinks they are safe in this continent are extemely naive.

 

Right, this is what we discussed a few pages ago, The whole 14 day quarantine is a joke since you're shedding the virus during incubation and even after you're clinically "cured". I'm thinking the shedding is probably closer to 10-20 days on average after you're cured (this is a rough guess I'm making, so don't hold me on it).

Sars was actually similar to this, that after your fever broke you should still stay away from others for 10 days or so (per cdc). Also, there are a number of viruses that do this, but I am still hoping once in different environments with hopefully better plumbing/hand washing it will help, but then again if you're spreading it without knowing during incubation... It probably won't matter unless they get better kits quickly.

 

Right, due to the incubation period varying widely and spreading it without knowing (like we discussed) makes it more likely that this will be harder to contain like you mentioned.

On the bright side... there's always a % of the population that has a mutation at the transmission site... Typically 4-5% in serious illnesses, maybe it'll be larger here but the numbers don't look good so far

 

Also, I really hope it gets better and you stay safe! I completely agree that the CCP screwed us, I mean if there weren't whistle blowers like the Dr that sadly passed, it'd have been even longer (I mean Sars originally required a whistle blower too back in 2003)... Just absolute trash to keep this hidden, not only could it have been studied better, but it might have been somewhat contained better (maybe..), but I mean come on we basically missed out on valuable time for studying this, what's going to happen if it's a true plague like virus after this one, would they just continue to be quiet?? Hopefully protocols change but I doubt it..

 

We absolutely do not have it in check but one can hope it's sooner than later.

 

If they had reacted in time, in the middle of December or even the start of January we would have at the very least have been saved from the Lunar New Year travel.
5 million people had left Wuhan before the quarantine for holidays with no clue that there was anything wrong.

Even if we hadn't managed to contain it completely there's a good chance we would have managed to stall and buy enough time for summer to come before it became a pandemic.

 

If this is about to break open in the Middle East, the entire world needs to come together to help them curb it the best we possibly can.

This isn’t a single country or region problem, this is global and countries that are not highly developed are going to need a ton of help. Invest now in helping overseas to lower the cost at home.

 

Completely agree with you, it's such bs.

 

I lived in Italy four years and hopped over to Crete in, like, an hour? Or maybe less? I imagine a lot of people make that same sort of trip.

 

I think you're crazy if you think this thing could be contained. It spreads without symptoms in *still* unknown ways - it was going to get out one way or another. The fact that China could even quarantine an area of 10 million people is a minor miracle in and of itself and has slowed this thing dramatically. And China wasn't going to quarantine 10 million people for some kind of seemingly small outbreak that it didn't fully understand in November or December. No country would do that. No one is quarantining a NYC, Paris, London, Mexico City, etc even today if something like this spreads there.

 

Are you sure about that last sentence?

 

The real answer to staying Corona free is



So be retired on a farm where your growing your own food / have food stocked, don't have any medication needs, have no contact with anybody.

Outside of that wash your hands and hope the ***** don't get ya.

 

All hell would break loose if we tried to quarantine New York City - or any other major city in the US. China can do that kind of stuff because they are basically a dictatorship and frankly they can just threaten to shoot anyone trying to break the quarantine. If you tried to blockade NYC, it would be a nightmare. You have people escaping in every direction, massive protests over martial law, etc.

 

I generally agree. But if this spreads to NYC and it can't be controlled I am curious to what would happen. You could potentially have 1000's of people die.

 

Haha, until you get bit by a coyote or a snake... So just stock up on everything