Now that Italy has stopped having 500+ deaths per day, they have begun doing the accounts and taking numbers. Not like China. Unfortunately the numbers are bleak. From time February-March 2020 the deaths in Italy showed a 39% increase compared to the numbers in the last 5 years. 25.354 excess deaths. Covid19 was registered as the official COD for only 13.710 of them leaving 11.600 unaccounted for.
The mitigation efforts were smart and the fact they were not all necessary does not change that fact. There will likely be an increase in deaths with the country reopening (I am not saying the country can or should remain on lockdown) and the question is how many and what can be done to effectively limit deaths. There is a very strong likelihood of at least one or more serious flare ups that will require some degree of quarantine like the one we just went through. Herd immunity is not very realistic at this point without massive fatalities. People pointing to herd immunity in Sweden are not familiar with the culture of Sweden or the trust the people there. They as a culture listen to their government and practice social distancing as suggested. They also have healthier and more active citizens than the USA. People claiming a .05-1.0% fatality rate do not really understand the way the impact of the virus is measured or the true level of infection. Even the isolated samples cited do not account for false positives, margin for error and the long term outcome. The key is to look at the death rate of resolved cases. Last the overall increased death rate across the world and US has gone way up beyond those that have been labeled as dying from COVID19. Eventually those will be investigated and decisions made on what is an accurate as possible estimate but it will assuredly be much higher than the 70,000 number known now. Estimates are just as good as the factors accounted for. Still we have many months if not years ahead of us. The actual fatality rate and number will likely be close to the estimates. By most informed estimates a vaccine is at a minimum 18-24 months away. You do the math. We have about 70,000 dead in less than three months. Wearing a face mask protects those around you and also YOU. People fighting wearing a face mask in public forums are selfish or ignorant. Those that do not wear a mask or practice social distancing deserve public scorn because they are unnecessarily putting people at risk. Private businesses have every right to force consumers and employees to wear masks in their businesses. People need to defer to the experts that actually understand the science and the math and went to school and have been in the field for decades. People would not trust their plumber to do spine surgery. They shouldn’t trust poorly qualified pundits or others that have their own motives to mislead. Listen to and trust the experts and know when to defer.
That number doesn’t take into account unresolved outcomes and the very real likelihood of a second or third wave. No one is comfortable discussing it with the public but there is a real chance there is no vaccine in 18-24 months.
I recently read an article about how some past variations of this disease to this day still don't have a vaccine. Don't know true that is. There is absolutely a possibility that a vaccine may not be discovered for years if at all
I agree with you that people are a little too optimistic about a vaccine and its timing. We all need the hope. But the more I read about the vaccine process (and the average taking 10.7 yrs for a successful vaccine), the more glum I get about it arriving within 2020, or maybe not 2021. That said, the average time didn't have the entire world focused on each disease to the extent they're focused on this one.
It is the unknown. Experts can make estimates based on the resources and attention given in the scientific community. However it still requires someone “doing it”. I will say, one of my wife’s former medical school friends that works for the CDC was on zoom with my wife. I butter in and asked about getting an effective and safe vaccine in 18 months and he chuckled and said “Let’s count on doing something that has never been done so before in such a narrow window of time. People and politicians hear what they want to hear. To count on it is foolish.” ...... I then scurried back to my safe zone and finished my pastrami on rye and let the doctors talk about resolved cases and viral loads.
I like how you worked in the sandwich so that it wasn't a completely bleak message. Style points awarded.
Even worse than that , you have to take into account that for almost all this time Italy was in a lockdown. I don't bother to search the data, but I can safely assume that auto, traffic accidents are one of the leading causes of deaths in Italy. Take most of them out, and the excess fatalities are even more.
yeah but Sweden's healthcare is based on primary healthcare not on ICU healthcare. That's why they have a severe lack of ventilators and ICU beds. Even hospital beds. Of course now the latest data point out that ventilators should be avoided. Anyway Sweden is not all roses. They are not comparable to someone like France or Switzerland with really strong healthcare systems. I have read one too many stories from ex pats living in Sweden how they were refused testing, how they were refused to be admitted in the emergency rooms even with 40C fever and severe dyspnea.
18 months from March puts us at September 2021. I would consider it a success If the masses had access to an effective vaccine by then. That would also mean that HCW's and the elderly, immune system compromised people could receive the vaccine earlier in the year. The best case scenario is for them have a vaccine by the end of this year, but that's unlikely. That's the next positive talking point coming from the administration as we heard today.
Just FYI Chuck Norris I was agreeing with you. I went to jiujitsu on Sunday and I've been outside and doing stuff everyday while make sure to take appropriate precautions. Daily reminder: just because you can be an anonymous fool on the internet doesn't mean you should be one.
Don't bother replying to that wannabe edgelord, doesn't seem he wants real discussion or information in this thread.
It’s not a solution yet, but a possible step towards it. If positive results continue in the trials (big if) they could start producing millions of doses by October... again, this is early-stage human trials : Pfizer begins human testing for experimental coronavirus vaccine in the US https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/pfi...perimental-coronavirus-vaccine-in-the-us.html
awww shiiieeeettt. gloves are off now. you dun go dissin michael jordan and dream olajuwon without fearing for yo life. imma go fap one last time and then im gonna find where you live breh and gonna spam your mailbox until you can't even sit schitt straight.
Anti-virtue-signaling virtue signaling! If you want to fling poo, go here ... BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion Monkeys flinging poo at each other. Politics, Religion, Race and other heated topics you wouldn't fire away on in polite conversation. Not for the weak of heart, but keep it civilized or you'll get the heave.
Experts Are Puzzled Over Why the Coronavirus Lingers in Some Asymptomatic Patients For as Long as 40 Days Reporting for Los Angeles Times: By his second day in the hospital with COVID-19, Charles Pignal's mild cough and 102-degree fever had disappeared. Bored and "bouncing off the walls" of his room in the isolation ward at Singapore's National Center for Infectious Diseases, he felt like he could go out and play a set of tennis. The 42-year-old footwear executive told his mother on the phone, "I'll be out of here in a couple of days." But Pignal would test positive for the coronavirus for five more weeks, despite developing no further symptoms. He wasn't released until the 40th day after he first fell ill, when he finally tested negative two days in a row. Cases like his are coming under increasing scrutiny as medical researchers worldwide puzzle over why the coronavirus -- which typically lasts about two to three weeks in the body -- appears to endure longer in some patients, even relatively young, healthy ones. With studies showing that asymptomatic patients can transmit the SARS-CoV-2 virus, understanding how the virus leaves the body is among the most urgent mysteries facing researchers as governments in the United States and across the world begin to reopen their economies. Although studies show that the average recovery time from COVID-19 is two weeks, and nearly all patients are virus-free within a month, "less than 1% to 2%, for reasons that we do not know, continue to shed virus after that," said Hsu Li Yang, a physician specializing in infectious diseases at the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health at the National University of Singapore. In recent weeks, China and South Korea have reported that some patients who had recovered from COVID-19 tested positive again in follow-up visits. In extreme cases, patients in the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the outbreak began late last year, reportedly tested positive 70 days after recovery. Doctors in both countries said they didn't believe the patients had been reinfected, a worrisome possibility because of its implications for building widespread immunity to a disease for which there is no vaccine. They also had no evidence that the patients had infected others.
