We've known something like this was coming for a long time. It was just a question of when and how virulent.
No, because you can't reinfect those who are already infected. Also people with symptoms like fever will be forced to go in their homes since they will be sick. Only in densely populated urban environments, with people using public transportation would it be possible locally to reach a over 50% infection rate in such a short time. Sweden is a huge country area wise, and large areas are not densely populated. But in Stockholm, Gotenburg, etc in the south of Sweden the local % of infected will be higher than the country average. Yesterday Today with the same model : Sweden 17.27% 1% percent more in just one day.
I posted the following in the Conspiracy Theory thread, but felt it might be more fitting here THEORY: THE US/CHINA TRADE DEAL, AND WHY CHINA CHOSE NOT TO DISCLOSE THE FACTS http://bbs.clutchfans.net/index.php...racy-theory-you-believe.304684/#post-12929452
Yeah..what do you think about this? China clamping down on coronavirus research, deleted pages suggest China is cracking down on publication of academic research about the origins of the novel coronavirus, in what is likely to be part of a wider attempt to control the narrative surrounding the pandemic, documents published online by Chinese universities appear to show. Research on the origins of the virus is particularly sensitive and subject to checks by government officials, the notices posted on the websites of Fudan University and the China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) said. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...on-coronavirus-research-deleted-pages-suggest I mean even I who believe that this is due to a natural spillover event have alarm bells ringing right now. Could the parent bat virus have leaked accidentaly from Wuhan's lab? The more China is acting like this the more suspicious it becomes.
There is already yesterday a small study published , that shows good results on 68% of cases with remdesivir. It is a much safer drug than the japanese one so that would be wonderful. How nice it will be if one month from now we not only have found a solution to the cytocine storms but also an antiviral. Also some plasma therapy. The case mortality rate will shrink. The mortality rate of ICU patients will go back to normal rates. We won't need so many ventilators and ICU beds because patients will need less time hospitalised till they recover. If we could find some prophylactic measure too, that would be the best. We might still get sick but we will be able to be saved. Only taht Gilead has said they could provide at most 1 million doses by December which seems very low for the world, but I hope a solution could be found for mass production.
My cardiologist friend in Houston had to wait 2 weeks for his results. Absolutely obscene. Luckily, he was negative.
I'll spoiler this as to not distract from the thread. Spoiler I'm not going to do a back and forth over cable news in this thread, but it should be self evident by now that all of them should not be relied upon as arbiters of truth and they all push agendas and narratives for ratings or out of uncontrolled bias. They are closer to news entertainment (Fox, MSNBC, and CNN) than they are hard news. I leave my tv on HGTV or DIY network if I want idle background noise rather than putting it on corporate news. Every so often they do good reporting and I try to judge each story as it is reported if it's widely shared by people I respect, but I'm certainly not going to seek them out for news. The sources I use on Twitter and YouTube are generally far superior and I've used my judgement to create a good base of people from various backgrounds to get information. Anyhow....back to the thread...
We won't peak for weeks and they are ready to re-open. Genius. If you wondered, how stupid they will be? When will they try to get things back going, when community spread has stopped? A month after the peak? a week after? the day after? The answer is a week before the ****ING PEAK!
So I'm going over the numbers today and it does look like growth of deaths are close to turning negative, but the overall percentage of tests positive is not really giving me much encouragement yet. They are trending slightly lower for NY/NJ, but still extremely high at around 44% in both the 5 day rolling total and 2 day rolling total. They have been consistently high for a couple weeks now. NJ has basically been over 50% positive tests for nearly 2 weeks. Testing is also somewhat bottlenecked in both NY/NJ. I was initially optimistic about death numbers topping out and turning lower, but it's going to take awhile for these daily death tolls to turn down. Also it appears NY is maxed out on hospital space or at least that's what their numbers are showing. I'd love to believe that people just don't need to be hospitalized but new hospitalizations seem to have hit a limit. New positive tests per day has been relatively consistent around 10k/day but over the past 6 days the total number of people hospitalized has grown by declining amounts. From 2111 -> 1880 -> 586 -> 200 -> 290 -> 85 today. I hope this doesn't lead to a spike in at home deaths. I wish I had better info on what exactly is going on.
Maybe you have more faith in him saying he will "implement strategies" to make sure the growth doesn't re-ignite, but that just sounds like fluff to me. Notice he said he's working with the president, not scientist, on when and how to re-open. We aren't projected to have our hospital resource use peak for over 2 weeks, yet we have our governor on TV talking about how we can "re-start the economy" and get back to work. I simply don't trust him, or the president to do the smart thing and keep us safe, hope I'm wrong.
