no one is talking about it now... but comes fall... no vaccine... what are we going to do about school. I'm not ruling out no school next school year (fall->spring)
fwiw: isn't this just US confirmation of the same human cases (same data) that the Chinese studies used? I wonder what the science would show if you ran this same modeling method on the 4 cases of closed environments ... the 3 quarantined Cruise Liners and the Theodore Roosevelt Aircraft Carrier. Seems like those should demonstrate the highest possible R0, especially that aircraft carrier. It almost seems like an R0 of 5.7 would play out as the entire crew of TR getting infected, while in such close proximity. And that first cruise liner was exposed for how long, before we were at high-alert for Rona.
Well ...they have already build a field hospital and the Gotenburg the second biggest city, asked retirement homes to take in Covid19 patients so... Everything is under control. They have less ICU beds than Lithuania or Slovakia. 79
Update on the numbers in Austria - series of sample testing of asymptomatic citizens Overall: 1544 tested 28500 estimated infection 0.33% of the population infected or somewhere between 0.12% and 0.76% due to margin of error. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ria-infected-with-coronavirus-new-study-shows
yup. This is based on Wuhan. Which could very easily mean an UNDERESTIMATION of the true Ro since we all pretty much know that the CCP hid the true number cases, and they also used 1st generation antigen tests. But look how much time it took for even this study to come out. 3 months. There will be studies on Italy etc but it will take months to come out. However the reason the UK abandoned their suicide was because their scientists had already upgraded the estimated Ro from 2.2 to 3.2 in the middle of March. Now as I look at the studies by the Imperial college, their estimation is 3.8, just 2 weeks later. Probably when their new models come out next week it will have reached 4+
It all depends on the baseline Ro used. What Ro did the austrian scientists use? 3? This number is based on a Ro of 3.8. With taking into account the drop or Ro due to intervention : closing of schools , shops etc
Given the lack of sufficient enough testing (2M out of 330M people in the USA is less than 1%), there is no question that the numbers of infected are understated. I'm assuming this to be good news in that more people are not suffering from this disease. I hope my thinking is correct.
Sweeden just reinforces the stereotype that blonde = stupid. J/K. A love beautiful blond women (or any kind of women tbh).
Don't put so much importance on this unless Austria is going South Korea. Massive testing, relentless contact tracing. Otherwise the number of official cases aren't reliable. The imperial College model is based on deaths. Which is at least more reliable. It should be lower than 1 though. You who live there, should know better than anyone because you can see how your conpatriots are adhering to social distancing and the lockdown.
You asked the question, and you shalt receive your answer. There was nothing impure about the numbers. I am only saying these numbers are coming straight from the Health Ministry of said country directly. I am not questioning the Imperial College but obviously each Country cares deeply about their country first and then about the other EU member states, then the US, the world. I do not know anything, I am at home 24/7 and have not left the house for 12 days lelz. I hope I saved or spared a couple lives.
Good job. lol I didn't say that the numbers were fake. I said that unless Austria is doing incredible numbers of tests and contact tracing you can't base the Ro on the confirmed cases. They are too unreliable in general as representation of the infection spread in the population. It can, only with vaccine.
Why? It would seem that we would be effectively vaccinated if we were exposed to the virus that rapidly.
Yeah how? Corpses would already be filling the streets long before you reach even 30% infection. Are you planning to put up infection booths where people stand in line to have a patient cough in their face?
Also not saying these numbers matter, but they have tested nearly 500k people in the NJ/NY area in the past 3 weeks which is almost 1.75% of the population and 43.6% of the tests have been positive. Obviously we can't do a blanket application to the entire population but I wonder at what point this will become statistically relevant. The NY total positive test percentage seems to finally be turning lower down from 47.8% to 40.1% in a week. However, NJ is still red hot and has risen from 51.3% to 56.3% over the past week.
It's going to suck ass, and I'm one of the luckier ones. I've been playing the "infected or not?" game for the past 10 days and I can't get a doctors visit or testing. Just a lot of phone time. The on call (literally?) doctor told me to take Robutussin and keep an eye on it if I get traditional fever symptoms.
