Congratz Japan! They came in 2nd to last place for slowest COVID19 response largely due to their selfish insistence to keep the 2020 Olympics on schedule. I believe Sweden is now the last developed nation to declare a state of emergency. Good luck to the Swedes and their dedication to the herd immunity strategy! Prime Minister Shinzo Abe warned that hospitals were reaching capacity and Japan was making plans to house the mildly sick in unused Olympic facilities as he declared a state of emergency in Tokyo and its surrounding regions. In what Abe said was the country’s greatest economic crisis since the end of World War Two, he declared a one-month emergency period from April 7 that will cover Osaka, Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba, Hyogo and Fukuoka prefectures as well as the capital. The move hands powers to local governments to try to contain the spread of the virus that causes Covid-19, including by urging residents to stay at home. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...declares-state-of-emergency-over-coronavirus?
Do people still believe this nonsense? That they were hiding cases to hold an Olympics? That they were going to invite hundreds of thousands of people from an infected world into Japan because they had no cases there?
Trying to square two things. I do think the mortality rate is likely much lower due to lack of testing. But yet we see that hospital can’t handle the load. The hospitalization rate is driving up the case fatality rate in Italy for example. So I’m not sure how this is good news... I want it to be. My brain can’t think now... thoughts ?
It is totally speculative on my part and based on that study that this virus has already infected many more people that we realize. That study projected that 15% of the population in Spain has already been infected by this virus. That would mean the number of actual cases is 50x greater than the current known cases. Meaning 7 million people would have already been infected and 14k died for a mortality rate of 0.2% instead of the current mortality rate which is close to 10%. Does that make more sense?
Around 2000 for the day. Go figure that scientists knew what the hell they were talking about after all. Sadly.
Random comments: * Like many on here, we have our own stories of "hmmm... maybe I was infected earlier" in our household. My wife had the "flu" - in quotes cause never tested positive definitively but was diagnosed based on symptoms (a couple of our kids DID test positive for flu a couple weeks earlier) - in February, got better, then got a low grade fever and just tiredness that lasted about 11 days. Obviously not to any level of "oh ****, wtf is this sickness"... but interesting nonetheless. * We just went for a family drive on Sunday. At multiple places around Austin - mostly trailheads/outdoor park type places, parking lots were VERY crowded. People are so dumb... * Based on the above, the virus is out there, people aren't staying in... we basically have to have medication/vaccine... otherwise its quarantining for a year
There's no coronavirus if you don't test and Japan was testing per-capita far lower than any other developed country aside from the US. In mid-March, this is what Seiko Hashimoto, Japan's Olympics minister said to the media, “The IOC and the organizing committee are not considering cancellation or a postponement — absolutely not at all.” So yes, I believe this nonsense because this is the nonsense that the Japanese government was endorsing until 2 weeks ago when they accepted that their pipe dream of holding the summer Olympics as scheduled was impossible. There certainly were many other factors at play too including the economic impact but it is highly likely, the Olympics were a major influence on decision making. Before the Olympics were postponed, Japan looked like it had coronavirus infections contained, even as they spread in neighboring countries. Now that the games have been pushed to next year, Tokyo’s cases are spiking, and the city’s governor is requesting that people stay home, even hinting at a possible lockdown. The sudden rise in the number of virus cases in Tokyo and the government’s strong actions immediately after the Olympic postponement have raised questions in parliament and among citizens about whether Japan understated the extent of the outbreak and delayed enforcement of social distancing measures while clinging to hopes that the games would start on July 24 as scheduled. With the Olympics now off, many are voicing suspicion that the numbers are rising because Japan suddenly has no reason to hide them. From Feb. 18 to March 27, Japan tested about 50,000 people, a daily average of 1,270 — fewer than the national daily capacity of several thousand. There was only a slight increase in the number of tests in the past week. In Tokyo, fewer than 2% of those who sought advice on a government hotline had been tested, according to health ministry figures. South Korea, by contrast, had tested about 250,000 people by mid-March. https://apnews.com/c346402f4a0ef8796c6eb0afebe342f4
You're missing the point. Even if Japan really had no cases, it didn't matter. The Olympic decision was going to be decided by cases *in the rest of the world*. If Japan has 0 cases and the rest of the world is infected, there still can't be an Olympics and Japan still can't invite all those infected people to come to Tokyo. Faking cases in Japan has no impact on the Olympics because holding it has nothing to do with the cases in Japan. Every sporting event has said the same things until they get cancelled. It's a perfectly normal thing to do/say - there's no point in saying anything else until you have something definitive. Back in late February (?), they said they would make a decision by May. They ended up doing it way earlier, and they did it further in advance than other (admittedly smaller) global events like the French Open, Wimbledon, etc. There's no doubt Japan has been slow with testing - but there's no reason to think it was driven by the Olympics. And even now with the increased testing and cases, there's no evidence that it's been spreading unabated for months. If it was, the country would already be overwhelmed well past what Italy and Spain are at. You couldn't hide that.
Still below the projected estimate of around 2140 deaths today and we have been consistently below the estimates. Also good to note this
There is a margin of error with every projection. I think it is a dangerous sense of optimism when the numbers are off by 100 or 200 and when it is still the highest mortality rate in any country of the world as of now. That is grasping at straws.
In the UK it is reported that non whites (this includes Asians from the Indian subcontinent) are disproportianately (spelling?) finding themselves in ICU. I also saw some stats about the US? But I attributed it to different levels of obesity perhaps or diabetes. However Bangladeshi and Pakistanis in the UK aren't more obese than the british as far I know. So could it be the viral load? People who live in many person households in cramped neighbourhoods?
Yea, that makes sense. I'm trying to square much lower fatality rate to "overrun" hospital and I can't. The 10-20% hospitalization rate should also drop dramatically if indeed 15% of the population is infected. Is it the unique severity of symptoms... ? or what
Honestly when I see now "the Imperial College of London" I am already ready to throw their studies to the trashcan. Just today they made a new one that said that schools should be OPENED because it's not worth the cost. Just need to social distance children- have no school breaks and prohibit them from changing classrooms. I think that a lot of scientists in the Imperial College of London don't have a good grasp of reality.
Yes.......I think there were a lot of rose colored glasses being worn a month ago. Not just in Japan.
It feels like every new study they do is implying that their initial COVID-19 response strategy was the correct one.
Look at this study from Wuhan https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2763524?resultClick=1 1 in 5 patients who was hospitalised , was found to have heart problems from the virus. So I was looking into colchicine that has been suggested in Europe to protect against pericarditis and what I found. An incredibly cheap ANCIENT medicine that costs less than even the packaging it is in, in the US costs 250$? Wtf is up with that?
